MainelySnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, jbrumberg said: This pending system looks to be another multifaceted snow to rain event for this area Friday into Saturday. From the NWS/B-N Office discussion related to this pending weather event: Reveal hidden contents * Another strong storm system with a multitude of impacts expected Friday Night into Saturday * Winds remain strong Sunday, with near to slightly below normal temperatures * Not as windy early next week. Lower risk for more precipitation, especially Tuesday. Much of this portion of the forecast will feature a broad mid level trough over the CONUS. Have moderate confidence in the forecast details through Saturday, which then falls to low confidence Sunday into Tuesday as the timing differences of certain features in the guidance suite become too large. At the surface, expecting yet another low pressure to move from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This will leave southern New England on the warmer side of this system, setting the stage for more rainfall and possibly some gusty winds. While there are some similarities with the current storm Wednesday, the standardized anomalies are just a little smaller. Thus, thinking our region should see slightly lower rainfall and winds. That may not mean much if flooding persists into this weekend, as any additional rainfall would only exacerbate flooding. There does appear to be a window for some snow at the onset across portions of NW MA and the northern Worcester Hills. This should transition over to rainfall. Will need a better handle on temperatures to pinpoint this risk with confidence. Latest National Blend of Models probabilistic guidance is not as robust with winds across much of our region. Will still need to consider some wind headlines towards the coast, especially across the Cape and islands. Some risk also for the Worcester Hills and towards the Berkshires (40-60%). Will monitor this aspect closely over the coming days. This storm should depart into southeast Canada by Sunday morning. However, gusty winds should linger through much of the day. Southern New England looks to remain in between a pair of high pressures: one over the North Atlantic, and the other towards the Rockies. Currently thinking Monday is likely drier than Tuesday. Most of the latest guidance suite has a low pressure along the SE coast of the USA. This does not look to be overly potent, but enough to bring a risk for some showers. Have little confidence in the timing details of this low pressure at this time, as the spread in the mid level flow pattern is rather large. I've noticed that NWS has become enamored of the word "multifaceted" in the forecasts. Someone must've sent around a memo for word of the month 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I am waiting for some neologisms. I have many to offer.🤪 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6z GFS qpf and snow: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 As much as I want snow this weekend, no way is it going to snow. Temps too high and LI will be rained on again. Euro showing similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) "Deja vu all over again."- NWS/B-N Office: Friday Night Snow and Breezy then Wintry Mix and Windy Low: 30 °F Spoiler Deja vu all over again. Active weather pattern continues, with another powerful low pressure expected to move from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday, driving its associated fronts through southern New England by Saturday night. More widespread rainfall is expected, with a period of strong gusty winds and coastal flooding possible as well. Latest guidance suite remains consistent with its signals for a slightly weaker low pressure than what we just experienced yesterday. The details for where the location and magnitude of heaviest rainfall are yet to be resolved with certainty. Ensembles place a moderate risk (40-60%) for 1 inch or more of rainfall in 24 hours along the I-95 corridor from RI into eastern MA. Given the rainfall we just had, any additional rainfall will exacerbate existing or lead to new flooding. WPC maintained a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across all of southern New England to highlight this risk. A Flood Watch also remain in effect for most of southern New England. Another frontend snow to rain event.😢 The newest storm track is even worse than yesterday's: Snow Graphics: Edited January 11 by jbrumberg 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 15 hours ago, jbrumberg said: I am waiting for some neologisms. I have many to offer.🤪 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 Oh good...gusts only to 55mph this time. Maybe windows won't visibly shake like last storm...main road into town was still closed as of this morning. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WWA posted for my area. A little surprising.. I wasn't expecting anything out of this one. Affected Area McKean, Potter and Tioga Counties Description ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3, locally 4 or more, inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph. WHERE...McKean, Potter and Tioga Counties. WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Only get a High Wind Warning here...🤮 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Tonight Chance Snow then Wintry Mix and Windy Low: 31 °F Another frontend snow changing over to rain event for this area 😢 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Some of the NYC metro impacts - 12-17 foot breakers on the south shore. 3-5' breakers on CT coastline. 3-4ft storm surge likely at high tide. Winds not as bad as last system, but I think they could be in pockets on LI and SE CT/RI Major river flooding in NE NJ (Passaic river basin especially) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Southern New England outlook Coastal flooding not as bad as last storm or nyc area (not sure why) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I know this storm isn't sexy in terms of snow, but the impact to coastal regions could be historic. In Portland they are talking about an all-time high tide record. Mind-boggling when you realize the number 1 high tide is the Blizzard of '78. There could be some catastrophic damage with this one. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 As of this morning, main road into town was still closed from damage from last storm. Could be a while before it reopens.... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 @telejunkie- I am sorry to read about your closed main road. We have similar weather conditions tonight, but not tomorrow: Tonight Snow before 4am, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. The rain, snow, and sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Breezy, with an east wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Rain, mainly before 10am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 49. East wind 11 to 17 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 (edited) 12 minutes ago, jbrumberg said: @telejunkie- I am sorry to read about your closed main road. We have similar weather conditions tonight, but not tomorrow: Tonight Snow before 4am, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. The rain, snow, and sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Breezy, with an east wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Rain, mainly before 10am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 49. East wind 11 to 17 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. It's weird...that last storm seemed to put a bullseye here. Most of the intense wind damage reported in the area was up by @TheRex and @ZLearned. My town seemed to be the only in southern VT to be hit hard. I don't understand it, almost like a microburst came through? 🤷♂️ Next towns over saw very minimal damage....the fire district I volunteer at (one town over) didn't have one call. Friends in other towns described it as windy...but they didn't get "rattle the windows" wind. Can't say i've seen windows visibly pulsate like that before... Edited January 12 by telejunkie 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, telejunkie said: It's weird...that last storm seemed to put a bullseye here. Most of the intense wind damage reported in the area was up by @TheRex and @ZLearned. My town seemed to be the only in southern VT to be hit hard. I don't understand it, almost like a microburst came through? 🤷♂️ Next towns over saw very minimal damage....the fire district I volunteer at (one town over) didn't have one call. Friends in other towns described it as windy...but they didn't get "rattle the windows" wind. Can't say i've seen windows visibly pulsate like that before... I bet it was a microburst that came through and did the damage in your area. Up this way it seemed like it was a line of wind that moved through a large area but your wind sounds more localized. I understand that is typically a summer thing, but the weather has not been normal lately. My wife and I driving up to Montreal tomorrow and coming back Sunday. It is supposed to stay mostly snow up there this weekend. Montreal is only an 80 mile straight shot from here but there weather has been snowier than my area. Last year was the same thing when we went up there. No snow on the ground here and we cross the border going north, boom, snow on the ground. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Can we just put this on layaway until next August when everything is drying out and we really need some rain? Had a lot of this over the past 7-8 months. Things are beyond getting soggy. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Rain has arrived here. Makes me think of the snobal post about not having to shovel rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Our forecast low is 27F but the current temp is 22F. I'm sure the temp will start rising soon but will be interesting how long we stay below freezing. The forecast is for heavy snow before the switch to rain. Then we get to deal with wind again. The joy of winter 2023/2024: snow, wind and rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmg002 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Snow and rain mix in State College…but lightning, too? 😳 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZLearned Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just upgraded my wind advisory to a high wind warning for 75mph winds. Interestingly, higher than the last storm. I fear we could get some serious damage since the trees that were hanging on for dear life during the last storm could possibly fell during this storm. We will see how it goes. Hope for the best. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 13 Moderators Share Posted January 13 5 hours ago, Tater said: Rain has arrived here. Makes me think of the snobal post about not having to shovel rain. Trying to goad me there…. 👀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 13 Moderators Share Posted January 13 Well, wind started. Rain is 30 mins away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Wind and rain have started here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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