Organicforecasting Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 35 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Monster shift north west Shoot... that's like going from Vicksburg, MS to Herman, MO! Almost due North....NNW to be exact!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 EPS mean track is a NE trajectory from central Arkansas to SE Michigan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) Edited January 7 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Seems like BAM's tweet moved this bugger away from many in the thread 🙃 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) 4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Fwiw, the op run is north of 80%+ of the ensembles at that timeframe. Could partially be a timing issue though. Edited January 7 by Hoosier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) Edited January 7 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Chris Bailey posted an afternoon update believes models could trend farther south and east than what models have been depicting on the latest runs with such a strong arctic influx https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=63111 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Meanwhile, the 12z NAV is a coastal, LOL 🤣 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, MesoscaleBanding said: Meanwhile, the 12z NAV is a coastal, LOL 🤣 Just madness lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 JMA is fairly weak/suppressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaf316 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 You know times are desperate when folks start posting the navgem and JMA. What does the Croatian model have to say...? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Jaf316 said: You know times are desperate when folks start posting the navgem and JMA. What does the Croatian model have to say...? Let's see the Korean while we're at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Meanwhile, the 12z NAV is a coastal, LOL 🤣 If you want a storm in your backyard, you hope the NAV is a coastal. If it starts coming west, we will be looking at a cutter. Some on here aren’t aware of the corollary. 🙂 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, cperry29 said: If you want a storm in your backyard, you hope the NAV is a coastal. If it starts coming west, we will be looking at a cutter. Some on here aren’t aware of the corollary. 🙂 Yep, exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: A healthy amount of those are deeper than the op run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Let's see the Korean while we're at it Speaking of… I haven’t seen @Ohiobuckeye45 post the Korean this winter 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 From KIND Event 2: Friday into Saturday Model-to-model and run-to-run inconsistencies produce low confidence in precipitation types, but confidence is higher that significant precipitation amounts will occur late this week into the weekend as another strong low pressure system moves through the region. Ensemble probabilities do show a low to middling chance for significant snowfall possibly over portions of central Indiana during this time frame, but small changes will have dramatic impacts upon this, and it is important to not seize upon one particular model or model run, particularly the outliers, instead monitoring model trends as we go through the week, keeping preparedness plans in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 ILN: Quote The next weather system is forecast to begin moving into the area some time on Friday, though timing spread with this system remains fairly large, so onset time (and precipitation type at time of onset) is a low confidence forecast. Ensemble probabilities suggest that chances for measurable snow will be focused north of the ILN forecast area, but at this distance in the forecast (Day 6) the degree of uncertainty is very high. Some wintry or windy impacts are a possibility, even if the area ends up on the warm side of the system during at least a portion of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, cperry29 said: Speaking of… I haven’t seen @Ohiobuckeye45 post the Korean this winter 😂 It's a mega cutter, not even lakes cutter, more like Midwest cutter 🤦 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Last frame of 18z ICON 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Last frame of 18z ICON For the 33 cents it is worth 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Really feels like we won't have a firm grasp on this until the current system evolves and moves out. I wouldn't give my hopes up if I was an OV member jus' sayin' 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 7 Admin Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, RobB said: For the 33 cents it is worth 🙂 33 cents used to buy me a pack of Garbage Pail Kids. I'll take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 7 Moderators Share Posted January 7 (edited) I’m not sure this was worth missing a quarter of football for, but the Lions won so I’m in a good mood. 1/7/24 12z Low Party Tracker GFS moved east, the rest of the group went west. Icon included for @Iceresistance and @FortySixAnd32. I hope you both remember me next Christmas . Still some timing differences. Last night's 0z run below. Quote Edited January 7 by Hiramite 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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