CrazyINwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 From KIND this morning: Spoiler SYSTEM 2...Friday and Saturday. Confidence appears high that another impactful weather system will affect the OH Valley, including central IN, but confidence remains low on details and precip type and amounts. With such a fast flowing, transitory weather pattern across the lower 48 states, determining how the late week system will evolve synoptically and how its mesoscale details and path will play out is still quite tenuous at this time. There continues to be a lack of intra- and inter-model run-to-run consistency. For instance, 00 UTC GFS takes an intensifying surface low moving into/across central IN Friday night/Saturday, with snow changing to rain, while 00 UTC ECMWF takes a farther south track across KY and southern IN, keeping colder air and more snow over central IN, especially northern half. Canadian GEM model also offers some variability. The common thread in all models is an impactful winter storm of snow and/or rain, along with potentially strong surface winds ahead of and behind the system given another deep surface low. To summarize this second system, given model variability which likely will continue for next several days, it is wise to be sagacious in assessing model data, and not believing any one particular model or run completely. We will continue to follow and message this evolving system closely in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: Some website has the UK to 168 hrs... maybe Wxbell. Anyone have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Based on the ensembles, this feels like indiana's storm-so the 8th-10th is iowa/illinois, this is indiana...means Ohio is next? For the 13-15 storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said: I think you’ve got the wrong thread, bud. Edited January 7 by CrazyINwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 7 Moderators Share Posted January 7 Alright, time to start up yet another Low Party Tracker. (donations for more highlighters can be made to Hiramite, PO Box BR549, Hiram OH) 😉 1/7/24 0z LPT I didn’t spend too much time on this one as there are big timing and track differences from run to run. Canadian shows a transfer to the EC I know one member here would like to see the ICON added, anyone else? I have one highlighter color left, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Alright, time to start up yet another Low Party Tracker. (donations for more highlighters can be made to Hiramite, PO Box BR549, Hiram OH) 😉 1/7/24 0z LPT I didn’t spend too much time on this one as there are big timing and track differences from run to run. Canadian shows a transfer to the EC I know one member here would like to see the ICON added, anyone else? I have one highlighter color left, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Wnwniner said: Based on the ensembles, this feels like indiana's storm-so the 8th-10th is iowa/illinois, this is indiana...means Ohio is next? For the 13-15 storm? if only weather worked that way that storm will probably be Atlanta's or Nashville's storm the way things go around here 😑 Edited January 7 by NeXrad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The 8-10th storm has trended NW, something to keep in mind regarding baroclinic zones and last minute trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Start the chant - Euro, Euro, Euro........! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 48 minutes ago, junior said: The 8-10th storm has trended NW, something to keep in mind regarding baroclinic zones and last minute trends. Full faith that if this is anywhere near or under 990MB, it will trend NW, regardless how strong the HP is to the NW. As is un unfortunate reality around here we typically need weaker lows. 995-1000 seems to be that sweet spot on getting a far enough SE track near the apps, or, some sort of Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Color me skeptical that the arctic air in Canada actually makes its way down to Conus. Keeps getting held back. Maybe I’m jaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 What a beast on the GFS. Elongated trough keeps the snow duration longer and not necessarily wrapped in an occluded bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoroBuckeye Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, junior said: What a beast on the GFS. Elongated trough keeps the snow duration longer and not necessarily wrapped in an occluded bomb. Sure is. Brought a low party to both our back yards 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoroBuckeye Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Temps afterwards are so different than these other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just cannot catch a break… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Follows the baroclinic zone quite well but there’ll be a storm it appears. Just where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 GGEM is lost if it thinks there is snow directly east of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, junior said: Follows the baroclinic zone quite well but there’ll be a storm it appears. Just where. That’s the interesting part. Will two storms follow almost the exact same path? That little disturbance between plays a factor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) This becomes such a rain beast that it absolutely crushes anything that would follow. Unless you believe the CMC which simply send us another cutter…lol. Can we get to Spring, please? Edited January 7 by JayPSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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