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January 11-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


snowlover2

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14 minutes ago, junior said:

Euro will probably end up suppressed 😂. Pv ain’t phasing with it like 0z. 

 

8 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Slight deja vu from what the current storm looked like at 150 hours haha

But with cold air 

sn10_024h-imp.conus.png

I believe there were a handful of less amped, more suppressed solutions on the GEFS - lots of possibilities on the table.

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38 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Couldn't help but notice that pivotal weather added the ICON model.

Just noticed that.  I was thinking did I really not notice all this time.  :classic_laugh:  A lot of model fields available too.

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All the models looked good if you are looking for a big storm still on the table. Canadian did feel like an outlier today but it looks like what usually happens lol. 

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Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (6).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (7).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (8).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (9).png

This storm is tricky because usually a low tracking that close would be bad for me but with the potential cold air tap and phase that may be a great track if all the pieces can come together just right. 

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Such a beautiful H5 look. Confluence in the NE will force this a bit south(and give us more front-loaded frozen qpf) but you remove that and its going full cutter until it hits that block over Greenland ofc.

500h_anom.conus.png

Edited by junior
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What would be nice is whoever gets the jackpot here may have a nice lasting snowpack with the PV flirting with the plains.  (per modeling of course)

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This is one of those setups where you could "get away with" having a low party

I obviously want further east, but if that hp as modeled came to fruition, I wouldn't be overly disappointed with a low party

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (10).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (11).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (12).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (13).png

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34 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

This is one of those setups where you could "get away with" having a low party

I obviously want further east, but if that hp as modeled came to fruition, I wouldn't be overly disappointed with a low party

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (10).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (11).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (12).png

sfcmslp-meanmem.conus (13).png

That track there looks solid if we have the cold air being pulled in. But if you have it too far west you end up with a solution the OP showed. Front end dumb then a scorcher. Gonna be fun to track this over the next week. Hopefully it doesn’t fizzle

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