NWOhioChaser Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, MidMichiganWx said: Well, looks like I'm going to take a direct hit from this one. Definitely excited. Local mets comparing it to the 2011 blizzard we had here. Yesterdays day was basically a bust IMBY. Oh man congrats! It’s about time you got smoked! Get some good pre and post storm pictures! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This is relatively low confidence, but if I had a gun to my head I'd go with about 6" here. Riding near the edge of the better snows though and this setup in particular is a very dynamic/volatile one with substantial lingering questions on precise surface low track/intensity as well as timing the erosion of any warm layers aloft, not to mention exact surface temps and the role they will play in accumulation. Would not at all be surprised to come in with less, but some minor tweaks in a positive direction could result in higher amounts. So basically, 6" is the best guess/middle ground approach at this point. Although I expect a large percentage of the snow to be of the wetter variety, that will end up freezing as temps drop and could lead to an outsized blowing/drifting impact for whatever amount of drier snow does manage to fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Long range RAP 🤢 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z ecm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Me Timbers Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 hours ago, Shiver Me Timbers said: Meanwhile the Euro - and to a greater extent it's operationals - has moved East And again with the 18z. Come on baby just a little more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said: And again with the 18z. Come on baby just a little more Like 150 more miles! 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Me Timbers Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, easton229 said: Like 150 more miles! 😂 For me, it's another one or two counties... As usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said: For me, it's another one or two counties... As usual. I mean, I would be happy with a Columbus two to better position myself, but I’m going for the home run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) Oddly enough there was a greater spread in the 18z eps in the hours leading up to 48, than there was beyond. Edited January 11 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Oddly enough there was a greater spread in the 18z eps in the hours leading up to 42, than there was beyond. Mayhem!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The tightest spread of all is probably the most important one to this thread, which is 54 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Models now undoubtedly split the storm completely in 2 and looks like a detriment to the overall performance. 00z HRRR just did it and so is the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Models now undoubtedly split the storm completely in 2 and looks like a detriment to the overall performance. 00z HRRR just did it and so is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Wow, when I didn’t think it could get any worse, I saw this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The whole 2 low thing almost blocks the phase completely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I literally just laughed out loud. These models are such great entertainment. Unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 They both end up finding a way to unconventionally produce but talk about some last minute chaos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: They both end up finding a way to unconventionally produce but talk about some last minute chaos It actually somehow helped me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Lmao, the NAM is absolutely Nuts. The most weirdly shaped deform band ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I expect more hi res models to start looking like this as the low exits, a 975 mb low winds coming across the lakes from all directions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 FV3 almost drops a 20 burger on Chicago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Here's a gif of the 2 wave/dry slot situation on a good handful of models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Why are the NAM and 3km NAM so different? Odd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: Why are the NAM and 3km NAM so different? Odd. That 3K NAM is real nice too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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