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January 11-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


snowlover2

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5 minutes ago, junior said:

GFS and CMC are Indy to MI specials

Agreed for now. Just interested to see how far east the low will move with the weakening and east trend starting in the last few model runs. Seems like it takes the low quite awhile to get going, previous runs had low 970s in Indiana and it’s not even hitting mid 970s until up in Canada now. 

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28 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said:

12z GFS is an I-71 special. Cincy to Cleveland.

If that verifies, then I'll get out my leafblower to push it a bit further east.  

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2 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Well, I guess it helps us with potential backend snows.  Sooooo, there’s that!

Well, you know those work out very well. 🤣

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FWIW.  Just issued.  I don't know if this takes into account any of the completed 12Z runs.   Anyway, posting for prosperity to see how much, if any, this changes over the next couple of days.

image.thumb.png.f19da7de49d02e1e2c37870d5bcfa2d0.png

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25 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Meanwhile, the UK tracks a 974mb LP across Chicago

From last night's Extend Discussion from WPC....

The UKMET was removed on day 4 due to its significant divergence from the rest of the guidance regarding the shortwave energy in the East Pac/Northwest U.S..

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24 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Meanwhile, the UK tracks a 974mb LP across Chicago

Officially into model mayhem portion of tracking.  :classic_tongue:

The GFS/GEFS shift is notable and not to be dismissed, but there are enough conflicting signals on the available 12z guidance suite to throw up some caution on the GFS/GEFS shift.  We'll see what the Euro says in an hour.

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Just now, Hiramite said:

From last night's Extend Discussion from WPC....

The UKMET was removed on day 4 due to its significant divergence from the rest of the guidance regarding the shortwave energy in the East Pac/Northwest U.S..

I wonder what happened to that model - seems like it performed very well several winters ago, but it has been awful lately.

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25 minutes ago, Jaf316 said:

Man, I need a new hobby...

Welp....don't choose ice fishing....because you'll be sorely disappointed to realize....there is no ice either 😄. (however the prospects of potentially being enough ice to start the weekend of the 20th has me still invested at least in the nature of the potential cold)

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

I wonder what happened to that model - seems like it performed very well several winters ago, but it has been awful lately.

It is mourning the death of the Queen still.  That or it is hopped up on Guiness. 😜

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3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

I wonder what happened to that model - seems like it performed very well several winters ago, but it has been awful lately.

I was thinking the exact same thing when I was plotting the tracks for the 12z LPT.

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Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Welp....don't choose ice fishing....because you'll be sorely disappointed to realize....there is no ice either 😄. (however the prospects of potentially being enough ice to start the weekend of the 20th have me still invested at least in the nature of the potential cold)

If the GFS temps would verify my area will go below freezing Friday night and not above it again until like the 23rd or 24th.

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1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Welp....don't choose ice fishing....because you'll be sorely disappointed to realize....there is no ice either 😄. (however the prospects of potentially being enough ice to start the weekend of the 20th have me still invested at least in the nature of the potential cold)

So I see, you're the one secretly wishing against OH snow so you can "make ice". :classic_laugh:

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