BoroBuckeye Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 End of the 18Z NAM looks more like the start of two wave solution to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 8 Moderators Share Posted January 8 The 1-8-24 PM AFD from CLE, in part, for this week's (1/12-13) system: LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.. Given a fully-phased shortwave taking on an early negative tilt and extreme airmass contrast between unseasonable warmth and humidity ahead of the low and Arctic air behind it, there are probably more arguments for this more amplified solution. With that said, given the amount of Arctic air pressure in and blocking ahead of the storm can`t ignore the colder/flatter solution entirely, especially if the shortwave doesn`t eject east as cleanly as the models currently have. In addition, much discussion on the potential wind impacts from tomorrow's (1/9) system and this late week (1/11-12) system (this thread). If you have a generator, make sure its ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenny Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Hiramite said: The 1-8-24 PM AFD from CLE, in part, for this week's (1/12-13) system: LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.. Given a fully-phased shortwave taking on an early negative tilt and extreme airmass contrast between unseasonable warmth and humidity ahead of the low and Arctic air behind it, there are probably more arguments for this more amplified solution. With that said, given the amount of Arctic air pressure in and blocking ahead of the storm can`t ignore the colder/flatter solution entirely, especially if the shortwave doesn`t eject east as cleanly as the models currently have. In addition, much discussion on the potential wind impacts from tomorrow's (1/9) system and this late week (1/11-12) system (this thread). If you have a generator, make sure its ready to go. Meaning that it would track further south and east? Asking for a friend 😄! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 8 Moderators Share Posted January 8 Just now, Jenny said: Meaning that it would track further south and east? Asking for a friend 😄! That's my take but more especially, that's my hope, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17 minutes ago, BoroBuckeye said: End of the 18Z NAM looks more like the start of two wave solution to me. not worth the extrapolation, but if we were to, If this DIDNT end up with 2 waves, this would end up very very west based on this 500 setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) models are starting to come south with the preceding clipper, not sure of impacts given the storms are pretty well spaced but at minimum cold air could hang on a bit longer Edited January 8 by Ohiobuckeye45 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 8 Admin Share Posted January 8 I would not be opposed to the 18z ICON. Even with the warmup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: models are starting to come south with the preceding clipper, not sure of impacts given the storms are pretty well spaced but at minimum cold air could hang on a bit longer Yep, we actually got close to getting a little dusting from it on the 18Z GFS… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted January 8 Moderators Share Posted January 8 (edited) 22 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: I would not be opposed to the 18z ICON. Even with the warmup. Ya! widespread blizzard conditions on that run Edited January 8 by Central Illinois 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 8 Admin Share Posted January 8 The 18z GFS, if I'm not mistaken (and again I am still learning), is doing that cool curlicue/comma thing that we all want with winter storms.. with a much colder look. Wonder if that clipper did help, @Ohiobuckeye45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 GFS trend over the last 5 runs... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, MesoscaleBanding said: GFS trend over the last 5 runs... Yep…the last few runs seem locked in unfortunately… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 8 Admin Share Posted January 8 Well, we wanted it to be cold. Mylanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, MesoscaleBanding said: GFS trend over the last 5 runs... This is about the time for last storm where GFS which was so steady it began to waver. Hopefully we can get this to come south east to affect more in the Ohio Valley. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted January 8 Moderators Share Posted January 8 (edited) 18z Icon at this point looks like the best case for most of us at this point when it comes to a spread the wealth type system Edited January 8 by Central Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted January 8 Moderators Share Posted January 8 ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: 18z Icon at this point looks like the best case for most of us at this point when it comes to a spread the wealth type system nearly impossible to capture all of us, inevitably someone always gets screwed but this does cover quite a swath Edited January 8 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 GEFS tightened up the spread big time, and a bit slower overall. It pretty much removed the 2 wave solution you can tell comparing to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 GEFS mean track almost identical to the 12z run...timing is just a tad slower this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 fun fact, this storm exits the US on Sunday, makes a round trip over E Canada and drops back down to the very tip of the lower 48 and kicks off a hell of an LES event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Sub 975 mb low with all snow that run for my area. Should be fun if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 why do the lakes get cranking after this storm, but not the nearly identical track/strength of tomorrow's? Lakes are warm compared to average, any winds over them should set them off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: why do the lakes get cranking after this storm, but not the nearly identical track/strength of tomorrow's? Lakes are warm compared to average, any winds over them should set them off Was wondering the same, but must have something to do with the lack of Arctic air on the heels of the 8-10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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