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January 11-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


snowlover2

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1 minute ago, junior said:

18z GFS rolling. Early cues tell me it'll be more progressive/flat with its weird almost split evolution associated with the main shortwave. 

Better than a Cutter. 

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In looking at the LPTs, the GFS has done pretty well the last two storms...not much jumping around, fairly close to the final outcome.

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To add to what was mentioned...

Comparing the 18z GFS to the 12z GFS, notice how 18z puts more emphasis on an initial wave in the Midwest.  Also the base of the trough in Mexico is farther east.  Result... more of a 2 part event with the second one ending up east of 12z.

500hv.conus.thumb.png.e893d56f1ab968223221f699ed0fcf67.png

 

500hv.conus-1.thumb.png.1493d48e094e7d477f0a26b161a50876.png

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42 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

GEFS supports the 2-wave idea...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_19.png

More than 12z, for sure.  Still some members that mainly have 1 bigger storm cutting farther west.

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