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January 11-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


snowlover2

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1 minute ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

If you look at hires NAM as well as globals what's being indicated is an energy transfer to NE Indiana as it bombs. Not sure how realistic this is but this explains the spreads. 18z GFS has primary near Western IL border at 18z and three hours later it's near Indianapolis! image.thumb.png.64b981c2db564e7e47f4d62e8f01b614.png

 

image.thumb.png.e0c7f9a0e19001285acf2bb42655afd9.png

This is tricky and could become a nowcast situation. Definitely explains the spread 

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2 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

If you look at hires NAM as well as globals what's being indicated is an energy transfer to NE Indiana as it bombs. Not sure how realistic this is but this explains the spreads. 18z GFS has primary near Western IL border at 18z and three hours later it's near Indianapolis! image.thumb.png.64b981c2db564e7e47f4d62e8f01b614.png

 

image.thumb.png.e0c7f9a0e19001285acf2bb42655afd9.png

I get what they are looking at, but one should make a call before the storm actually begins in the area. 

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38 minutes ago, RobB said:

If they wait long enough, they can nail the forecast amounts 😉

The issue is rapid development of the storm that could lead to cold air coming in sooner.

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56 minutes ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

If you look at hires NAM as well as globals what's being indicated is an energy transfer to NE Indiana as it bombs. Not sure how realistic this is but this explains the spreads. 18z GFS has primary near Western IL border at 18z and three hours later it's near Indianapolis! image.thumb.png.64b981c2db564e7e47f4d62e8f01b614.png

 

image.thumb.png.e0c7f9a0e19001285acf2bb42655afd9.png

This is what they’re talking about and so is another weather guy on Facebook. 
Transfer. 

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1 hour ago, Shiver Me Timbers said:

If you look at hires NAM as well as globals what's being indicated is an energy transfer to NE Indiana as it bombs. Not sure how realistic this is but this explains the spreads. 18z GFS has primary near Western IL border at 18z and three hours later it's near Indianapolis! image.thumb.png.64b981c2db564e7e47f4d62e8f01b614.png

 

image.thumb.png.e0c7f9a0e19001285acf2bb42655afd9.png

The elongated low idea is an interesting development.  Not all guidance has it (or at least not to that extent) so who knows what will happen as far as that goes.  

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Liking the trends tonight.

In light of the 00z runs, LOT is gonna have to add 2-3 counties to the warning imo.

We really don't have a precedent for tracking a storm this strong through Indiana. I think that's why the models are so confused 

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3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We really don't have a precedent for tracking a storm this strong through Indiana. I think that's why the models are so confused 

The double low thing is interesting.  I mean, it can happen, but it's so pronounced on some of the models like the HRRR.  I wonder if that signature sort of fades in time and the southern/eastern low takes over more quickly, but it's going to a fun day of tracking.  

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The double low thing is interesting.  I mean, it can happen, but it's so pronounced on some of the models like the HRRR.  I wonder if that signature sort of fades in time and the southern/eastern low takes over more quickly, but it's going to a fun day of tracking.  

That's what I think will happen. The southern low will most likely take over. Very interesting to say the least!

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3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

And there you have it

Annnnd there is my house! Throwing the party for the low on my backyard. Literally. This has gotta be driving local Mets bananas on what to forecast! But it’s a little too late to scream out warnings, now. Most people think this is gonna be north of Indy. 

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In general terms, like this graphic from LOT (Chicago).  It is certainly handy in situations like these when impacts vary over short distances.

image.thumb.png.6ed71c74f5107c4ed03ca72e0016e791.png

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