Hoosier Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This setup is hella dynamic. Think we may see larger model spread than usual in some of the finer details even as we're closing in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 11 Admin Share Posted January 11 We need more Chicago posters. I want pictures of this bomb from there (and you Michigan folks)! ☃️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: We need more Chicago posters. I want pictures of this bomb from there (and you Michigan folks)! ☃️ Will oblige if it happens. Will wait till the HRRR is within 18hrs to start weighing it too much. The NAM is being put out to pasture soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: We need more Chicago posters. I want pictures of this bomb from there (and you Michigan folks)! ☃️ I'll go out and take some pictures from the eye of the landcane if it gets this far west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Actually been some pretty massive changes on the available 00z runs in the handling of the vorticity stream behind our system. This keeps snow showers going for longer on Saturday in my area. Normally not that big of a deal but having a large gathering on Saturday afternoon with a number of guests driving in from Chicagoland and it's up to me to make the call on whether we proceed with it. Any lingering snow only adds to blowing snow concerns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowgeek93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Blah, looks like more rain creeping into my area depending on which model run you believe. Need a big push SE over Lake Erie or this will be a big let down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Nice thump signal around here on Friday morning on most models except for the amped up HRRR/RAP runs. That looks capable of laying down a few inches if not a bit more before the thermal profiles could get tricky and flip to rain. Don't even have a ton of agreement on the flip to rain though so who knows (even though I'd lean toward a changeover). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 At just 48 hrs, there is a 10 mb spread in the progged intensity of the surface low on the main models (so, not counting HRRR/RAP and some of the other hi-res stuff). Range from 973 mb on the Euro to 983 mb on the ICON/GDPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The storm is still raging with well over a foot of snow ... I'm looking forward to the 6z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The storm is still raging with well over a foot of snow ... I'm looking forward to the 6z HRRR That thing literally rode up Lake Michigan from south to north. Made "waterfall" at Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That thing literally rode up Lake Michigan from south to north. Made "waterfall" at Chicago. I'm not sure I believe it, but I definitely want to! 🤤 This is going to be an impressive storm no matter what the details end up being considering the 70+ mb gradient between the low and high pressures. Also, the warm water of Lake Michigan (nearly 6ºC/43°F) can't be ignored and low pressures like to suck up the heat. Sorry OHV, but the UP needs some snow too. We're currently 58.9 inches below normal for the season and maybe just maybe this storm will do better than cut that amount in half ... especially after getting a complete DUD of a storm on Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The storm is still raging with well over a foot of snow ... I'm looking forward to the 6z HRRR Nice 🤘 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 (edited) FWIW, a comparison between WPC's Day 5 and Day 2. Pretty close considering there was a major storm between the two. Edited January 11 by Hiramite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 (edited) Good luck MW/Lakes folks! Looks blurry, click on it to de-blurritize. Edited January 11 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Hiramite said: FWIW, a comparison between WPC's Day 5 and Day 2. Pretty close considering there was a major storm between the two. I am glad that model scores include WPC accurcy scores along with them. Humans..FTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 15 minutes ago, Hiramite said: So close. Guess I’ll take my 3-4” and call it a win with the way this winter has gone so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, easton229 said: So close. Guess I’ll take my 3-4” and call it a win with the way this winter has gone so far. Hoping for at least two wins in the next 4 days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Current look at 500s: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Hoping for at least two wins in the next 4 days..... If I have to take one loss, I’ll take this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 A shame for those south of I-80 that this beaut takes so long to wrap in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Hour 36 NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3K at same time: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, RobB said: 3K at same time: Anyone know historically how the 3K performs to the normal? I always thought they were usually in line with each other. This is the furthest apart I can remember seeing them for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 28 minutes ago, Hiramite said: A shame for those south of I-80 that this beaut takes so long to wrap in the cold air. even along i-80 at times.....temps are again less than ideal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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