Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 this is a huge variance for being "basically" the same model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 21 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: where exactly are you? I would be somewhat excited pretty much anywhere in MI even SEMI/NW OH on alot of models About 20 miles NW of Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 10 Moderators Share Posted January 10 20 hours ago, Hoosier said: It would be a historic occurrence. Record lowest pressure at South Bend is 976.6 mb Record lowest at Fort Wayne is 975.3 mb Record lowest at Indianapolis is 974.6 mb Record lowest at Terre Haute is 979.4 mb 20 hours ago, Hoosier said: fwiw, the system moving through today has broken Indianapolis' lowest January pressure. Old January record was 984.4 mb. The 6Z Euro and GFS ensembles say its likely that Indy will break it's lowest SLP record twice in one week. If so, that's pretty amazing. GEFS EPS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanmkay Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Oof, 12z GFS takes the low to almost Chicago. Not trending in the right direction for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, ryanmkay said: Oof, 12z GFS takes the low to almost Chicago. Not trending in the right direction for MBY. Looks like it'll rip here for an hour or two before being washed away and then getting dry slotted. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanmkay Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Looks like it'll rip here for an hour or two before being washed away and then getting dry slotted. Then the cement phase starts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, easton229 said: About 20 miles NW of Detroit I would be more than ok with where I sit then, bullseye, maybe not, but given how this winter has gone, basically a 50/50 shot of 6''+ and pretty much a guarantee 2-4 minimum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I am very nervous about this one bleeding north or just having warm air be an issue for my area. Will be happy to have any snow in advance of the much colder pattern, but have had high hopes for this one here and it will sting a lot more than the last storm if it underperforms. Sort of have a gut feeling but can't possibly make a call with numbers yet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, Cary67 said: High stakes Euro shortly. I'd probably rather be you than me. Interesting storm shaping up for the metro. Could have a crapload of snow falling with temps 32-34. Will be interesting to see how that plays out from a power grid perspective. Too warm and you melt too much as it falls, reducing the impact to some extent. It's going to come down to the tiniest of details. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, Cary67 said: thats your absolute pinnacle of what you could ever ask for in a low track/strength for your area haha. Hopefully temp profiles are better than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, Hiramite said: 0z LPT: It looks like we have consensus. The Euro has the lowest pressure and meets “bomb” criteria between hours 54 & 78. In looking at the past trackers…. It looks like we’re back to pretty much where we were 24 hrs ago. Initially most models were “out west”, some then over-corrected to the east, now they all meet in the middle. Classic. To my eyes, no one model nailed it from the start. They all jumped around to a certain extent. Last one for this storm….next!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) in it as a bystander now, but those on the edge, theres a slight SE bias at hour 42, thats pretty quick to see a change already Edited January 10 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 about a 2 county shift SE still at hour 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) Chicago money shot Edited January 10 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 tagging on some backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shiver Me Timbers Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I grew up in Northern Virginia. Tracking potential snows was always a crapshoot -- totally dependent on the perfect mixture of ingredients. I thought for sure moving to the Midwest would provide me with some more enjoyable snowfalls, and a much lower bust ratio. Halfway through my second winter, I've had about two dozen potential major snowfalls turn into rain or white rain. Now we are two days away from the arrival of a bombing storm and the major models are depicting anything from rain to the WEST a low sitting over IL to snow to the East of a Low over IN. It's almost ridiculous. I am dumbfounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Brutal cutoff in SEMI, of course. My co-workers in Holland will enjoy being buried all weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanmkay Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Brutal cutoff in SEMI, of course. My co-workers in Holland will enjoy being buried all weekend. Wouldn't expect anything different lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icewoz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, ryanmkay said: Wouldn't expect anything different lol. I think this is the track for winter. With a 2nd storm going very similar to the last supposed big snow for SEMI, our fate is now sealed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: If you have the Kuchera map, you can see the difference in totals. Kuchera is more like 12" around Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 22 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Chicago money shot Annnnd Chicago gets blasted Again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanmkay Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The Canadian is the only one showing temperature profiles cold enough to give more snow than rain. To the other more advanced weather fans, is the cold air intrusion being underplayed? I find it hard to believe with this pattern that there is this much significant rain that far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJim Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 34 minutes ago, Indygirl said: Annnnd Chicago gets blasted Again Chicago really hasn't been blasted in a long time. Yesterday was a relatively minor event for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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