Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 11 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Man, go to bed thinking everything pretty locked in. Then cuz very busy day, i look st NWS forecasts and see mixing here tomorrow morn in their forecasts. Didn’t see it at all eith model runs the last few days, and still don’t see it. Then come on here and see short rangers slightly increasing or holding steady with 3-6 hrre, leaning with higher end. Probably NWS just being NWS, hugging a certain model- just not sure which one 😀 Maybe covering butt and going with WPC? But that is odd because Holly pushes mix tight to the PA/NJ line but not over so far as Atown region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 Those east of 95 should be prepared for a glaze of ice. Given the surface cold air in place, this has a good chance at creating some travel headaches, especially as a light glaze is enough to snarl traffic and sidewalks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 17 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Those east of 95 should be prepared for a glaze of ice. Given the surface cold air in place, this has a good chance at creating some travel headaches, especially as a light glaze is enough to snarl traffic and sidewalks. Thinking ice or rain? Seeing rain in NWS forecast and gaps in precip on several models runs for LI. I love snow, but freezing rain is a nasty bitch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 18 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Maybe covering butt and going with WPC? But that is odd because Holly pushes mix tight to the PA/NJ line but not over so far as Atown region. Well, cough, cough, um, i was in a super hurry and pulled up the accu and weather channel forecasts on , um my phone. i think punishment should be swift and severe, and i will probably will be shipped off to the forum minor leagues, Double A at best. All’s i can do is apologize, and perhaps try the sleep deprivation angle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Our forecast had been for about an inch of snow tomorrow but BTV has bumped us to 2'-4' in my location. They still haven't put out a map for tomorrow but their forecast discussion points out this will be all snow, unlike the last several storms. They also mention that thermal and moisture profiles suggest this could be an overachiever. Quote Confidence is increasing for a widespread light snowfall late tonight into Tuesday, with latest guidance shifting qpf axis a bit further north, with low end advisory possible for central/southern VT. A well deserved and much needed widespread 2 to 5 inch snowfall is expected for much of VT, with slightly less near the International Border. Did I mention all snow and no mix with rain too. Water vapor shows an initial 5h s/w with a ribbon of enhanced mid lvl moisture racing acrs the central MS River Valley and southern Appalachian Mtns, while potent northern stream s/w energy is entering the central High Plains. This secondary piece of energy wl deepen today, while trying to phase with initial sub-tropical s/w along the eastern Seaboard on Tuesday. While full phasing does not occur, a little interaction and just enough negative tilt in mid/upper lvl trof develops to advect slightly deeper moisture into our cwa. In addition, left front quad of 250mb jet of 140 to 160 knots wl be angling toward our central cwa on Tues, helping to enhance large scale synoptic ascent. Did note band of moderately strong 700mb fgen forcing as mid/upper lvl trof crosses our cwa btwn 15-21z Tues, along with the associated uvv`s couplet. Initially some moisture wl go toward saturating the column on Tues morning, but sounding analysis indicates a rather large snow growth region with favorable saturation in relation to ice cross section, supporting good flake size. Sfc low pres is rather weak, so influence of trrn should be minimal from winds. Bottom line a widespread light snowfall is anticipated with a burst of moderate snow likely mid day, when best forcing arrives associated with trof. Thermal and moisture profiles suggest this could be an over-achiever in terms of snowfall accumulation, thinking a general 2 to 5 inches much of VT into Essex County NY and 1 to 4 over northern NY/International Border area. A winter wx advisory wl probably be needed for portions of the region. Temps hold in the 20s on Tues with light southerly winds. Unfortunately, system is progressive and light snow tapers off on Tues night and attention wl once again turn to lake effect. Localized lake effect bands look to impact SLV/Western Dacks late Tues into Weds, with additional snowfall likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 Light snow falling. Not fast enough to add up currently. Pics or it didn't happen, right? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 41 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Well, cough, cough, um, i was in a super hurry and pulled up the accu and weather channel forecasts on , um my phone. i think punishment should be swift and severe, and i will probably will be shipped off to the forum minor leagues, Double A at best. All’s i can do is apologize, and perhaps try the sleep deprivation angle. Da hurrier ya go, the behinder ya git. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Burr Posted January 15 Popular Post Share Posted January 15 Downstream observation from Nashville TN 12-degrees, and more snow than I’ve seen in 2 years 7 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Nice write up by Sterling. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current forecast package remains on track with subtle changes mentioned below. So far, many areas have already received between a half inch to one one inch of snowfall in and around the metros with slightly lower amounts across the western mountains. Places like Washington DC and Baltimore have not seen snowfall totals like this since early January 2022. Currently, there is a bit of a lull in the snowfall action as the initial wave of low pressure kicks north and east. An additional wave of low pressure will approach from the west this afternoon and evening allowing the snow to fill back in across the region. The steadiest snowfall per the latest 12z hi-res deterministic/ensemble guidance looks to fall during the late afternoon and evening period. This is where most locations could pick up a general 2 to 3 inches of snow with locally higher totals of up to 4 inches (mainly confined to the crest of the Blue Ridge, Catoctin Mountains, and extreme north-central MD). Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for these areas to encompass the continued concern for slick travel as air and pavement temperatures sit at or below freezing. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued west of the Allegheny Front for additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. With folks traveling back from the long holiday weekend and high snow to liquid ratios have opted for the upgrade from advisory to warning. Current 12z hi-res guidance shows snow to liquid ratios increasing to values greater than 18:1 as the afternoon and evening progress on. This is the same time of when the best forcing arrives for the greatest snowfall to accumulate. With a fluffier snow expected we should be able to yield slightly higher totals especially along Backbone Mountain in Garrett Co. south along US-219 toward Spruce Knob and the highest peaks of western Highland Co. On top of the snow will come the wind chill with many locations in the warning zone seeing feel like values hovering between +5 to -10 degrees below zero heading into the late afternoon and overnight hours. Previous discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 PS … and it is still snowing. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Feeling cute. Might post some winter weather advisories. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 SREF last 4 runs. Pretty steady IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I thought this was fun to look at 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 See this is where i am screwed. The local tv station, with accu is telling everyone 1-3 inches, so not bad. Except they are low, over conservative as usual. So when we get 3-5 with low temps, roads won’t be good, plus walkways, driveways. But when we try to push them to Wednesday, they bitch cuz we ate only getting 1-3. And you wonder why i am so screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: See this is where i am screwed. The local tv station, with accu is telling everyone 1-3 inches, so not bad. Except they are low, over conservative as usual. So when we get 3-5 with low temps, roads won’t be good, plus walkways, driveways. But when we try to push them to Wednesday, they bitch cuz we ate only getting 1-3. And you wonder why i am so screwed up. "But Tony said"... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 My Holly refining their expected totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: "But Tony said"... I really like that call 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: "But Tony said"... I like snow so I like that, but I think 3-6 should be 2-4 with lollipops of 5/6 here and there, and most of the 2-4 should be 1-3. Yes it’s light and fluffy but QPF isn’t that strong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Newest expectations. Could be right could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Word up - Tony L. (formerly PowerStroke 7.4 or something like that) may be coming on board here. So be nice when commenting on his forecasts LOL (He is Lehigh Valley Wx Authority on Fb and now Twitter) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Probably NWS just being NWS, hugging a certain model- just not sure which one Prolly the FV3 and hrw 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 In re: snow totals Remember - this is a high SLR event. So it's more about that than it is about strict QPF output. WPC suggests 20:1 is attainable in some spots. Certainly 15:1 is easily attainable. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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