Jon Snow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Right now it is 28 with very light, fine snow falling, a dusting on the cars and roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Sterling AFD Quote && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Snow is overspreading the area from southwest to northeast early this morning. Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded to cover all of the forecast area, with the exception of St. Mary`s county (where they should receive around an inch of snow). With the snow overspreading the area currently, the advisory is in effect immediately. An initial round of light snow is expected to occur over much of the area through mid-morning. There may be a brief lull from mid-morning until around noon in some locations as the disturbance causing this initial snow passes off to our north and east. Another disturbance will approach the area in southwesterly flow aloft this afternoon into tonight. Steadier light snow is expected to break out again across all of the forecast area by mid-afternoon and continue through tonight. A long duration light snow should produce 2 to 4 inches of snow across much of the forecast area by tomorrow morning. The 00z and 06z runs of the HRRR suggest that there may be a QPF maximum from Highland County, VA northward through the Panhandle of WV, and into far western Maryland. The current forecast currently calls for 3 to 6 inches of snow in these locations. If confidence in a HRRR- like scenario playing out increases, upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings may potentially be needed for those locations. It`s also possible that precipitation could mix with freezing rain briefly along and southeast of I-95 late tonight into early tomorrow morning. If this were to occur, St. Mary`s county would need to be added into the Winter Weather Advisory. Any ice accumulation would only be a light glaze. Snow should move out of the area from southwest to northeast during the second half of the night through early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: It is some type of brine that is rumored to be made similar to Vodka but I really don’t know.. no people do not follow the trucks with glasses. I thought maybe. They use some sort of salt combo stuff in my area. But in the city they use that brine stuff on interstates that cross through 2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said: Right now it is 28 with very light, fine snow falling, a dusting on the cars and roads. Friend in Baltimore confirms an instant stick quick coat atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Dropped totals but who,really knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 updated Mt. Holly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Upton changed their discussion, and forecasts, to suggest warm nose will play a significant role on Long Island. Down to an inch projected in Suffolk County. Aligns with the Mt. Holly map, but I wasn't really seeing that on any of the recent models posted. Thoughts on rain hitting the coast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 50 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I thought maybe. They use some sort of salt combo stuff in my area. But in the city they use that brine stuff on interstates that cross through Friend in Baltimore confirms an instant stick quick coat atm. There has not been enough snowfall yet for roads to be a problem, but it is an instant stick here also where roads are not treated. I live on a fairly steep county road, and it is way down the list for getting treated or plowed. Only takes an inch or so and something more than 2WD is required to get up it. As of now the forecast is for he snow to pick up later today, I could have an interesting drive home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 15 Meteorologist Share Posted January 15 Guess we are getting snow. They are putting us in the 3-6". Going to be a fun ride to and from work... 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ok I said earlier 1/2” but it is more like 1/4” . Roads seem to be clear but a lot of accidents cause of hidden ice. ‘’will be interesting what comes later today and tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvnbraves Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 An unexpected coating in Perry Hall, MD, just north of Baltimore. Nicely stayed on roads and deck, not so much in grass. Kids are SUPER excited about this! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 Got 0.5"-0.75" so far. As others have said, it's very fine and powdery. It's not showing on the radar, but it's still snowing. Currently 24 degrees. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Tater said: Got 0.5"-0.75" so far. As others have said, it's very fine and powdery. It's not showing on the radar, but it's still snowing. Currently 24 degrees. Reverse virga? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: Lol, it's not my decision. I get the sense they are going to expand the HREF, as computing power is likely getting closer to being able to run high resolution ensembles. I was vocal when they made the decision to go with FV3 core in the GFS, I found the MPAS solution more attractive. I'm a nut shell FV3, is a square grid, but when placed on a sphere, it essentially requires scaling for each grid square, MPAS uses uniform shaped hexagons. I think it's funny people think I'm so negative and bullish with every post, not my intent. I'm usually just trying to point to important factors for a threat, if that shatters some of the unbridled optimism, not much I can do. You are by far some of the best commentary on this board. And the others of you who are similar...you know who you are 😎 14 minutes ago, Tater said: Got 0.5"-0.75" so far. As others have said, it's very fine and powdery. It's not showing on the radar, but it's still snowing. Currently 24 degrees. 12 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said: Reverse virga? Radar works by sending out a beam and interpreting what is reflected back. Snow, in general, does not reflect the energy very well and thus radar has trouble 'seeing' the snow many times. This is why Clear Air Mode was introduced on various radar systems. When you have such a cold airmass in place, the snow is even more fine. This means that even less energy is reflected. Thus, you may have snow and no returns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said: Reverse virga? It's not uncommon here. Lots of storms, especially weaker ones show a precip hole over our area that doesn't really exist. My theory is that since we live in the Shenandoah Valley and all the radar sites are on the other side of the mountain (Sterling and Roanoke being the closest), the radar just doesn't pick up if the precip doesn't fall from high enough. 1 minute ago, Uscg Ast said: Radar works by sending out a beam and interpreting what is reflected back. Snow, in general, does not reflect the energy very well and thus radar has trouble 'seeing' the snow many times. This is why Clear Air Mode was introduced on various radar systems. When you have such a cold airmass in place, the snow is even more fine. This means that even less energy is reflected. Thus, you may have snow and no returns. This could also be a factor (perhaps moreso than my theory). We aren't very close to the radar sites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Jog north on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On my commute in a while ago, pretty much could be described as snizzle. Roads mainly just wet. A dusting in the grass. This isn't going to be a thump all day but rather a comes in waves kind of deal. Main event for us is supposed to be later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Been snowing lightly here in Middletown Valley of Maryland since about 4am. Dusting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 HRRR, still snowing in NJ/NYC and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 12k NAM: 3k NAM: Edited January 15 by LUCC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvnbraves Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 "Micro" snow just north of Baltimore. Volume has picked up some and has been holding steady since about 9:20. Accuweather shows snow for a solid 24 hours, but only 1-3 inches. I don't know which is sadder - that or how excited we are about 1-3 inches! But is NAM 4, 5, or 6 inches possible??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Man, go to bed thinking everything pretty locked in. Then cuz very busy day, i look st NWS forecasts and see mixing here tomorrow morn in their forecasts. Didn’t see it at all eith model runs the last few days, and still don’t see it. Then come on here and see short rangers slightly increasing or holding steady with 3-6 hrre, leaning with higher end. Probably NWS just being NWS, hugging a certain model- just not sure which one 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 15 minutes ago, lvnbraves said: "Micro" snow just north of Baltimore. Volume has picked up some and has been holding steady since about 9:20. Accuweather shows snow for a solid 24 hours, but only 1-3 inches. I don't know which is sadder - that or how excited we are about 1-3 inches! But is NAM 4, 5, or 6 inches possible??? that isn’t showing pure snow - there is some mixing in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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