Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This weekend is too far out. Mods aren’t handling this arctic air well at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, Rickrd said: This weekend is too far out. Mods aren’t handling this arctic air well at all. No, they have really crapped the bed on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: No, they have really crapped the bed on this one This one being Tuesday or Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, LiveWire_13 said: This one being Tuesday or Friday? Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Night folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 hours ago, Penn State said: The composite reflectivity is like.. off the charts. Can confirm that is all snow came down relatively fine and heavy at times with visibility dropping one of the really fine snow that covers the roads quicker than the grass because how fine it is. Best describe it at is heaviest as a fog of white mist. Temps in my area are in the low 20s and the brine is just about useless. Parts of the I-270 where the exits are are completely snowcovered. Was suprised how slick things got. Has lightened up some as looking at the radar theres a little break before more returns come over us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 hours ago, Rickrd said: For sure. I was thinking about my younger school days when all of a sudden we’d be let out during an out of nowhere snowstorm. But that was in the 70’s Haven't been "surprised" by a snowfall since the early 2000's. And that was just a surprise over the amount being way underforcasted, as opposed to the storm itself being a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This is one reason why I love using H7 maps. If you are under the green values, you could very well be seeing precip - even if no models show it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 WWAs covering this so far here in our region. This is one large swath for such a minor system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 06z 12k NAM juiced up Edited January 15 by eddygeeme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 NWS talking about SLR of 15-16:1 with potential there for someone inland to see 20:1 It's been many moons since we've seen such ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 06z 3k NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: NWS talking about SLR of 15-16:1 with potential there for someone inland to see 20:1 It's been many moons since we've seen such ratios. It's a very fine pixel dust snow. If we can get the right dendritic growth as the costal takes over I think this could surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Stuff over Hbg - Atown, likely no Over Phila, prob yes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 15 Author Admin Share Posted January 15 7 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Hahaha there's a reason nobody even posts the fv3 except for MJ.🤭 Lol. I only post it because it's going to replace the loveable ole NAM. certainly seen more wrong than correct generally. GYX Quote Tonight: Top down saturation will bring thickening/lowering clouds tonight as upstream shortwave approaches from the south and west. Guidance consensus...including the 00Z HREF suggest snowfall along the MA/NH border will hold off until right around daybreak...so have CHC pops over this area as the tonight period ends. Lows will have a chance to dip into the single digits north with increasing cloud cover to the south keeping lows in the teens to around 20. Tuesday-Tuesday night: The guidance trend over the past 24 hours has been a stronger coastal low pressure system which pushes further west. In fact...some of the higher resolution guidance now pushes the low ashore over eastern Maine late Tuesday. This trend necessitates another boost in QPF and snowfall amounts. With the system still remaining an open wave at H7...it`s still a quick hitter with precipitation centered ahead of height fall max that will drive through northern New England late Tuesday...with mid level deformation remaining transient and pushing quickly into downeast Maine. DGZ placement looks good...though not as optimal as with yesterday/s squalls but still supportive of decent snowfall ratios. Current forecast snowfall amounts increase from southwest to northeast as the low strengthens...with 2-4" over southern NH and 3- 5" looking most likely across the Capital region of Maine west through the western Maine mountains. Amounts are sitting near our winter weather advisory threshold. Given that there remains a good bit of spread among the ensemble guidance...in collaboration with our neighbors we/ll await the dayshift to make a decision on the need/placement of winter weather advisories. Given the current shift in the guidance...southern NH as well as York County ME may see snow arrive for the morning commute...so be prepared for potential morning (and evening) travel impacts. Finally...the western shift may bring enough warm air into the midcoast to cause a mix or changeover to rain Tuesday afternoon. Low pressure pulls north and east of the region with snow tapering to snow showers during the evening. It will remain breezy through the night with departing low pressure strengthening with temperatures under cold advection dropping into the single digits across the mountains with teens elsewhere and wind chills about 10F colder than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lol. I only post it because it's going to replace the loveable ole NAM. certainly seen more wrong than correct generally. GYX Weather Matrix/Jesse F. is on a wx page I am also on FB. He proposes scrapping the entire NAM/FV3 effort and just extending HRRR (he may have been kidding - those were his words however) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Weather Matrix/Jesse F. is on a wx page I am also on FB. He proposes scrapping the entire NAM/FV3 effort and just extending HRRR (he may have been kidding - those were his words however) Lol. IMO, the NAM is superior to the FV3. As evidence I present today's event lol. But seriously I know the NAM has its moments where it looks like it shouldn't exist but it has value and has seemed to do okay with this event, assuming no huge swings from what model consensus is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 19 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lol. I only post it because it's going to replace the loveable ole NAM. certainly seen more wrong than correct generally. GYX Edited January 15 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 15 Author Admin Share Posted January 15 3 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Lol, it's not my decision. I get the sense they are going to expand the HREF, as computing power is likely getting closer to being able to run high resolution ensembles. I was vocal when they made the decision to go with FV3 core in the GFS, I found the MPAS solution more attractive. I'm a nut shell FV3, is a square grid, but when placed on a sphere, it essentially requires scaling for each grid square, MPAS uses uniform shaped hexagons. I think it's funny people think I'm so negative and bearish with every post, not my intent. I'm usually just trying to point to important factors for a threat, if that shatters some of the unbridled optimism, not much I can do. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Light snow borderline moderate right now. Not much must have been happening earlier because nothing even on the deck. If it keeps up like it is now it won't be long though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Light snow started around. 4;30 think I was very dry . about 1/2 “ but roads have been pre treated and today is a federal holiday so traffic should be lighter for my son who drives what I used to do a 130 mile round trip for work. 25 and light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 M.L.King Day Snow. High near 32. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Tonight Snow before 4am, then snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Low around 30. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain and freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 12. North wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Light snow started around. 4;30 think I was very dry . about 1/2 “ but roads have been pre treated and today is a federal holiday so traffic should be lighter for my son who drives what I used to do a 130 mile round trip for work. 25 and light snow. What type of pre-treat? The stuff they use here somewhat needs traffic driven over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: What type of pre-treat? The stuff they use here somewhat needs traffic driven over it. It is some type of brine that is rumored to be made similar to Vodka but I really don’t know.. no people do not follow the trucks with glasses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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