Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 9 (edited) 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Although I strongly suspect a NESIS monster is out there, and I generally like this time period for snow in the East - I do not believe this is "our one" to do both. It can still be a decent storm - perhaps easily so. Yet, to expect a triple phased beast (as 00z Euro showed) is setting the bar a bit high. UT.. You thinking the first or second week of February? MJO.. if it actually follows the forecast would be around 7-8 by the end of the month (or so it looks). Edited January 9 by Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Penn State said: UT.. You thinking the first or second week of February? MJO.. if it actually follows the forecast would be around 7-8 by the end of the month (or so it looks). Yes, the GMoN does The EMON had it going that way but last run, retrograded back into Ph6 early Feb. GMON at the end, also retrogrades but is in Ph7 still I'm thinking second week 8-15 Feb. Edited January 9 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: GraphCast looking better at 12z than it had at 00z (note 850 level is only view available at this time) TUCKED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Not bad. Looks like a full one inch better for most locations when compared to 00z EENS. Remember the 00z EENS did not bite on the system being a bomb 34 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yepper, this is a nice little signal for another potential wintry event next week. Sign me up! Great signals yet again at this lead time. Just like last storm! Although it sleet for a bit last storm, it was still a nice storm. this def has more “potential” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, Rickrd said: def need the triple phaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GFS coming in and has far less confluence and definitely more digging with the long wave. Could be moving towards the King 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 No Good. It simply strings out even more so than it's previous run . Kind of weird given the improvements noted. I guess they simply weren't enough. Man that was fast (as in it gets by even quicker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Iwish I could remember the storm from maybe 8 years ago that had such large confluence to deal with going into the storm evolution. All I remember is Snowman11 went bonkers with the run to run shifts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Iwish I could remember the storm from maybe 8 years ago that had such large confluence to deal with going into the storm evolution. All I remember is Snowman11 went bonkers with the run to run shifts. Not the one you're thinking of but the confluence in Dec 2018 was the one that stands out in my mind. It worked out for us as VA was on the northern fringe. But I'm sure most of our denizens were upset on that one. Confluence was a huge factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18z GEFS members not impressed. will wait and see. Standing by…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) Until I see the euro show nothing over numerous continuous runs, I’ll never believe the gfs Edited January 9 by PA road DAWG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Iwish I could remember the storm from maybe 8 years ago that had such large confluence to deal with going into the storm evolution. All I remember is Snowman11 went bonkers with the run to run shifts. 2014 great suppression storm? Showed 2' in Poconos only to smack Virginia and South. What a winter 13-14' was. Just brutal from November to April. We had to send a wellness check to @PA road DAWG's house Edited January 9 by MDBlueridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 24 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Until I see the euro show nothing over numerous continuous runs, I’ll never believe the gfs I agree with this. Be interesting to see how quickly that northern stream plays ball on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 32 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: 2014 great suppression storm? Showed 2' in Poconos only to smack Virginia and South. What a winter 13-14' was. Just brutal from November to April. We had to send a wellness check to @PA road DAWG's house Very well could be it. The ULL on that baby was even larger and closer than the present situation - THAT much I can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Again, all this “cold” and no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, bigben89 said: Again, all this “cold” and no snow. Ben what are you looking at? Yes there is no BIG storm but 18z was very snowy for us. It was actually a very Pittsburgh pattern. We do small, light snows and that was full of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, bigben89 said: Again, all this “cold” and no snow. For being an I assume Steelers fan, you should be used to chronic disappointment interspersed with the random hope things turn around 😁 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) Pat 3 Euro Ensemble runs. Have to like where this is trending. No? Edited January 10 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Still not great on the GFS at 00z but a little better put together. The trough orientation and timing are all different on the models. I imagine we have to get the current storm out of the way before the picture will clear some. To Rick's point though, that is a really nice 500mb depiction if that is ultimately what it looks like come Monday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Psu1313 said: Still not great on the GFS at 00z but a little better put together. The trough orientation and timing are all different on the models. I imagine we have to get the current storm out of the way before the picture will clear some. To Rick's point though, that is a really nice 500mb depiction if that is ultimately what it looks like come Monday. Might need to get the Friday rainmaker out of the way as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 10 Meteorologist Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, TheComet said: Might need to get the Friday rainmaker out of the way as well. This very much. I was actually just chatting with a colleague about this storm. The timeframe would fit with the relaxing of the -NAO and a bump in the PNA. That right there should at least signal a storm is possible. The cold retreating is also another example of storm potential as we often get systems when this happens. Now how much cold is left and just how close or far the system is from the coast are certainly unknown at this time but at least some positive signs are there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 10 Author Admin Share Posted January 10 ECMWF just went Ivy Mike. 19mb drop in 6 hours. Would love to see the in between. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 10 Author Admin Share Posted January 10 Lol, to 952. So 34 mb drop in 12 hours. This would challenge all time record low non tropical pressure for the lower 48. So hard to believe. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said: For being an I assume Steelers fan, you should be used to chronic disappointment interspersed with the random hope things turn around 😁 The next 12 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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