clm Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Gettysburger said: Amazing, that we were about to throw the towel in on this storm a day or so ago and now we have a decent little system headed our way. I mean it’s only 3 or 4 inches but hey, it’s the biggest snow we’ve seen in two years here in Gburg! What took the wind out of its sails? It was gearing up to be a good sized storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, eddygeeme said: Yup as low strengthens pulls in Atlantic warmth coast deals with mixing. Hard slog to get all snow events now a days Don’t see this one strengthening too quickly that much warm air blows in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburger Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, clm said: What took the wind out of its sails? It was gearing up to be a good sized storm I just think the models for the lost part didn’t have a good handle on it until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Um, very few were. Hah true. Not sure where that came from lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 56 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Hrrr big jump north. Lot more organized juicer 18z vs 0z That looks similar to the 18z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Gettysburger said: I just think the models for the lost part didn’t have a good handle on it until today. Well, for one thing, the models were right on a storm in this time frame. What needed to be figured out was strength, direction, intensity blah blah blah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, tool483 said: That looks similar to the 18z CMC Rgem has had this since it came in range. Props to it if it ends up correct when gfs euro said almost a non event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, HVSNOWSTORM said: Rgem has had this since it came in range. Props to it if it ends up correct when gfs euro said almost a non event. Yea that model been killing it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Rgem has had this since it came in range. Props to it if it ends up correct when gfs euro said almost a non event. Yeah .. those two throwing a wet blanket on it for a day or two really made this place feel like a funeral. Ain't for the faint of heart, that's for sure haha 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 00Z 3K NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, JDClapper said: Yeah .. those two throwing a wet blanket on it for a day or two really made this place feel like a funeral. Ain't for the faint of heart, that's for sure haha “Those two” really seem to he sucking eggs lately. Sad to see Euro get partnered with YouKnowWho. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Congrats Maine? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburger Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 11 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Um, very few were. I don’t know I just feel like a lot of people were lol. Maybe it’s me. I always held out hope that the models were not handling it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Gettysburger said: I don’t know I just feel like a lot of people were lol. Maybe it’s me. I always held out hope that the models were not handling it right. Definitely felt like it, I know what you mean lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Gettysburger said: I don’t know I just feel like a lot of people were lol. Maybe it’s me. I always held out hope that the models were not handling it right. That’s good. Welcome to getting sucked in like the rest of us. 😂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Since @MaineJay posted to FV3, he must now post the ICON. Rules are rules. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I think they wanted to be 2010 and the models to be consistent The big thing you had 3 different waves and not sure what each will do. Each one leaves differences once it is finished playing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS did horrendous. It looked like a chicken without a head running around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 NAM Trend qpf 3knam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, TheComet said: GFS did horrendous. It looked like a chicken without a head running around. Calling the GFS a model is like calling the Homecoming Queen from the Coal Region a model. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The dreaded WAA is now introduced in my area. per LWX && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The region is likely to see the first significant accumulating snow in several years, starting late tonight in central VA, then spreading northward Monday into Tuesday. Cold conditions expected through mid week as highs struggle to reach the mid 30s south/east of US-29, and remain below freezing to the north/west. Monday night will see temps drop to the 20s, with teens in the mountains. Frigid temperatures arrive Tuesday night as the temps plunge into the teens, with single digits in the Alleghenies. Combined with gusty winds, dangerous wind chills are likely in the single digits to single digits below zero, and negative teens in the Alleghenies. A potent jet aloft and numerous waves of low pressure traversing the region that is socked in to an Arctic airmass will allow for at least two periods of accumulating snowfall. The first is expected tonight into Monday morning as a broad shortwave moves overhead. The highest snow totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected in Central VA and the Central Shenandoah Valley where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Snow amounts of a coating to an inch may make it as far north as the Washington metro, and around half an inch up to the Baltimore metro (especially south and west). Snow rates should decrease late Monday morning into early afternoon as the area enters a lull between events. Intermittent light snow and flurries will be possible all day across most of the area. The second period of snow is expected from mid Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, and this is expected to produce widespread snow amounts of 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Additional Winter Weather Advisories are expected to be issued during the next forecast cycle tonight to account for the second period of snow. While inconsistent in depiction in the models, a more persistent heavier band cloud result in a stripe of up to 6 inches, especially in some of the higher elevations. Warm air aloft does begin to intrude later Monday night, especially southeast of I-95. This may result in mixed precipitation, or even freezing drizzle if a dry slot lessens precipitation rates. As the system exits the area Tuesday evening, expect an uptick in northwesterly winds. Gusts up to 20 mph are possible, locally a bit higher along the Allegheny Mountains. && 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Calling the GFS a model is like calling the Homecoming Queen from the Coal Region a model. Oh boy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 NBM trend sref trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Rickrd said: Oh boy. I think dat comment is , well, “apropos “. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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