Poco Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Relevant part from Mt Holly SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The Philadelphia snow drought appears to be near its end. Relatively weak high pressure will be starting to give way to a developing wave of low pressure along the stationary boundary to our south Monday evening, with warm advection/isentropic lift and frontogenesis already causing some light snow to break out across the Delmarva and southern New Jersey. This light snow will then overspread areas further north overnight. With relatively modest forcing overall, expect rates to remain relatively low, but widespread 1 to 2 inches of accumulation looks reasonable by late Monday night across much of the area. Temperatures will be mostly in the 20s through the night. Tuesday, surface low strengthens as it passes northeastward off the coast to our south. Some question remains about how close the surface low passes, as some guidance sends a warm layer into coastal areas which may change the immediate coast to rain while possibly bringing some freezing rain to the I-95 corridor Tuesday morning into midday. Further northwest, frontogenesis and divergence aloft from the approaching upper level shortwave likely leads to continued light but steady snowfall across the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Expect highest totals in these areas, with locally more than 4 inches possible. Accumulations appear to dwindle further southeast due to potential for dry slotting and mixing, so have 2-3 down to I- 95 and 1-2 across most of the coastal plain. It should be stressed that some uncertainty remains regarding exact placement of forcing features, and changes would affect snowfall totals. Highs along the coast may reach the low-mid 40s thanks to onshore flow, while I-95 northwestward will stay near or below freezing, with 20s in the Poconos. System passes eastward out to sea Tuesday night with lingering precip rapidly moving away. Much colder air mass builds in behind the system with lows dropping into the teens for most of the area, with single digits in the Poconos. Winds from the northwest behind the system, while not particularly strong, will be strong enough to push wind chills into the single digits, with sub- zero in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Should make Mikey happier. Nice 5.2 at Morristown. Incredibly similar to HRRR. Almost too similar lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 15 Author Admin Share Posted January 15 NAM going to make folks wait for it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Think NAM is a bit more intense this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 15 Author Admin Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 18z vs 0z NAM Juiced 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Closer to close and deeper I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I-95ers won’t like this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Rickrd said: Closer to close and deeper I believe. Following the HRRR AND RAP. this may he best run since it was a big storm. Cranking @ hr 39-42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 NAM. CLOWN MAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) CONGRATS RT! You’re in the clowns nose! Edited January 15 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 31 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I dunno @RTC3-LAST CHANCE looks like a widespread 2-5" to me! Hoping for ya. Models seem to be making this storm small in size for whatever reason. Seems like an undersell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3k NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Rickrd said: NAM. CLOWN MAP Snow for Long Island but that hot air in Riverhead keeping it low for eastern suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3k snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Rickrd said: CONGRATS RT! You’re in the clowns nose! “ apropos”. Always wanted to use that word. No idea wtf it means, and had to spell check it 5x. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 lol. Thinking is this is not figured out yet. More fun to come. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Rickrd said: I-95ers won’t like this run Yup as low strengthens pulls in Atlantic warmth, coast deals with mixing. Hard slog to get all snow events now a days Edited January 15 by eddygeeme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 15 Author Admin Share Posted January 15 NAM3 v. FV3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, eddygeeme said: Yup as low strengthens pulls in Atlantic warmth coast deals with mixing. Hard slog to get all snow events now a days No worries. One run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 RAP HRRR NAM/3KNAM fairly good agreement. Mesos have had the best handle on this for a good 24 hours now. But yes wobbles will happen but a nice light to moderate event for almost everyone is looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburger Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Amazing, that we were about to throw the towel in on this storm a day or so ago and now we have a decent little system headed our way. I mean it’s only 3 or 4 inches but hey, it’s the biggest snow we’ve seen in two years here in Gburg! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, MaineJay said: NAM3 v. FV3 Hahaha there's a reason nobody even posts the fv3 except for MJ.🤭 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Gettysburger said: Amazing, that we were about to throw the towel in on this storm a day or so ago and now we have a decent little system headed our way. I mean it’s only 3 or 4 inches but hey, it’s the biggest snow we’ve seen in two years here in Gburg! Um, very few were. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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