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Jan. 15-17th, 2024 | NE/MidAtl Winter Storm


MaineJay

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So Holly has upped it. Just wondering if FF has been factored in yet? Also, remember how we are in max out mode, where storms been going all juicy. This storm has a ceiling, but agree with UT that this puppy has a little upside potential. Would not be shocked at all to see WSW’s flying tomorrow.

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We now have snow in the south starting tonight .  
 

For my area. 
 

Tonight
Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 21. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. 
M.L.King Day
Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 
Monday Night
Snow. Low around 28. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest after midnight.

 

Edited by Wtkidz
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4 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

We now have snow in the south starting tonight .  
 

For my area. 
 

Tonight
Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 21. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. 
M.L.King Day
Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 
Monday Night
Snow. Low around 28. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest after midnight.

 

You are our "upstream" so we deman... er, expect frequent updates

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LWX (Sterling)

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The region is likely to see the first significant accumulating snow
in several years, starting late tonight in central VA, then
spreading northward Monday into Tuesday. Cold conditions expected
through mid week as highs struggle to reach the mid 30s south/east
of US-29, and remain below freezing to the north/west. Monday night
will see temps drop to the 20s, with teens in the mountains. Frigid
temperatures arrive Tuesday night as the temps plunge into the
teens, with single digits in the Alleghenies. Combined with gusty
winds, dangerous wind chills are likely in the single digits to
single digits below zero, and negative teens in the Alleghenies.

A potent jet aloft and numerous waves of low pressure traversing the
region that is socked in to an Arctic airmass will allow for at
least two periods of accumulating snowfall. The first is expected
tonight into Monday morning as a broad shortwave moves overhead. The
highest snow totals are expected in Central VA and the Central
Shenandoah Valley where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.
Snow amounts of around 1" are expected along the I-95 corridor from
Fredericksburg up to the DC metro, and around half an inch up to the
Baltimore metro. Snow rates should decrease Monday afternoon as the
area enters a lull between events. Intermittent light snow and
flurries will be possible all day across most of the area.

The second period of snow is expected Monday evening into Tuesday,
and this is expected to produce widespread snow amounts of 2-3" with
isolated higher amounts possible. Additional Winter Weather
Advisories are expected to be issued during the next forecast cycle
tonight to account for the second period of snow.

As the system exits the area Tuesday evening, expect an uptick in
northwesterly winds. Gusts up to 20 mph are possible, locally a bit
higher along the Allegheny Mountains.
Edited by Wtkidz
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Well, I did mention it being similar to PDII

A potent jet aloft and numerous waves of low pressure traversing the region that is socked in to an Arctic airmass will allow for at least two periods of accumulating snowfall. The first is expected tonight into Monday morning as a broad shortwave moves overhead. The highest snow totals are expected in Central VA and the Central Shenandoah Valley where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Snow amounts of around 1" are expected along the I-95 corridor from Fredericksburg up to the DC metro, and around half an inch up to the Baltimore metro. Snow rates should decrease Monday afternoon as the area enters a lull between events. Intermittent light snow and flurries will be possible all day across most of the area.

The second period of snow is expected Monday evening into Tuesday, and this is expected to produce widespread snow amounts of 2-3" with isolated higher amounts possible. Additional Winter Weather Advisories are expected to be issued during the next forecast cycle tonight to account for the second period of snow.

Just like PDII - two bouts with a lull. Only diff is that PDII had massive High where we now have a massive ULL. Neat. 

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This is looking good for more than just the  south and central mid Atlantic crew. I think the NYC and North crew checked out Friday. Slowly anticipating a rush heee at some point. This has went to what storm to something more along the lines of what most of us were originally tracking in a span of Friday to Sunday night. Wild times.

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From TOS you can see the higher amounts building from a SW to NE trajectory from Roanoke/Harrisburg  NE to from a line  from Frederick to Dover. A hunch that will eventually extend given trends thru E.PA Central Jersy on up to NYC.

Each run the amounts are adjusting upward. As models are picking up that LP may get stronger off the coast.

GFS.gif.3ebac68add860ab1fb01acaf3b2cc0fd.gif

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