Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 CTP summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WPC Heavy Snow Discussion - complete with mention of D/E ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 40 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Baby-G gets an idea and only changes a tiny bit run to run - gonna start calling it Rock Steady (a moniker I was given when young) Rgem and icon have led the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Nam is warm brings mixing into the HV and SEPA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 LWX Sterling && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... With the Arctic air mass in place, the region will need to keep a close eye on multiple disturbances which may produce light snow accumulations. Most notably, enhanced southwesterly flow coming out of the nation`s mid-section will push through the region early Monday morning. High-resolution models have started to edge northward with the associated precipitation shield. While precipitation amounts are on the lighter side, the cold ground will likely yield some light snow accumulations. At this point, any snow totals would stay under a half inch and remain south of the U.S. 50 corridor in Virginia and Maryland. This wave gradually exits during the middle of the day. Expect a cold day on Monday as high temperatures struggle to escape the low/mid 30s, with upper teens to 20s in the mountains. However, winds will drop off so wind chill effects should be minimized. Not much sunshine will be had as skies remain mostly cloudy throughout the day. A system which has been followed closely for several days now will push across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Although the former model solutions which showed a strong coastal storm have disappeared, the threat for light snow still exists. Over the course of 12 to 24 hours, an inch or two of snow could be mustered depending on how this system takes shape. This would affect the Tuesday morning commute so this does bear watching as untreated surfaces would see accumulations on the very cold ground. The feature of interest currently lies over western North America, so many details will gradually become resolved in the upcoming model cycles. Except for far southern Maryland, thermal profiles should not be an issue as snow would be the dominant precipitation type. For St. Mary`s County, some rain could mix in depending on air temperatures and dew points. Tuesday`s high temperatures are forecast to be mid 30s for locations along and south of I-95, with upper 20s to around freezing for areas to the north and west. Of course the most frigid conditions sit over the Alleghenies as highs are stuck in the teens. As the system exits the area Tuesday evening, expect an uptick in northwesterly winds. Gusts up to 20 mphs are possible, locally a bit higher along the Allegheny Mountains. Given the cold air mass in place, wind chills again drop back into those hazardous ranges. With forecast low temperatures ranging from 10 to 20 degree (low/mid single digits over the higher terrain), wind chills fall into the single digits for many. Additional wind chill headlines are likely for the Alleghenies as it will feel like the negative teens in a number of spots. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 O6z NAM 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 14 Author Admin Share Posted January 14 42 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: WPC Heavy Snow Discussion - complete with mention of D/E ME It may be in the same state as me, but it even feels far away from me quite often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, MaineJay said: It may be in the same state as me, but it even feels far away from me quite often. I get that feeling about Philly most times... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 SREF's starting to congeal. 1pm Mon-1pm Tue, 24 hour mean 10:1 snow and POP of 1"+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: SREF's starting to congeal. 1pm Mon-1pm Tue, 24 hour mean 10:1 snow and POP of 1"+ Some of these GIFs should come with Antivert or Dramamine 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: SREF's starting to congeal. 1pm Mon-1pm Tue, 24 hour mean 10:1 snow and POP of 1"+ I'll be stoked with 3-4" of fluff. Good base for Fridays storm 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7pm M-7pm Tue 9z SREF means.. 10:1 mind you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Some of these GIFs should come with Antivert or Dramamine I do it extra fast for our good friend MJ who likes them. lol But in all honesty, it seems to help just focus on the "trend" rather than numbers when it's this fast. At least how I see it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: I do it extra fast for our good friend MJ who likes them. lol But in all honesty, it seems to help just focus on the "trend" rather than numbers when it's this fast. At least how I see it. I'm actually ok with the fast ones. It's cats like RTC and RickRd I worry about. Based on their overnight postings, they're riding the edge of sanity to begin with. Wouldn't take much to send them into a complete tailspin. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I do it extra fast for our good friend MJ who likes them. lol But in all honesty, it seems to help just focus on the "trend" rather than numbers when it's this fast. At least how I see it. Case and point .. how bout this trend on the SREFs.. total snow through 7am Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 NAVGEM also jumped W - albeit in less assembled form than its 12z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 NAV yesterday v. Recent. Note the "trend"ancy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Chance of 1"+ in a 24 hour period. 9z SREF. Dark red = 70%+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Chance of 4"+ .. blue is 30% plus. This is not a banger, but fluff could make this a low-end moderate event for someone in the MidAtl. Better chance up in New England/Maine. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Where's @RTC3-LAST CHANCE at, I need to give him my cell number to give me 12z live updates, I'm headed to church soon. 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Chance of 4"+ .. blue is 30% plus. This is not a banger, but fluff could make this a low-end moderate event for someone in the MidAtl. Better chance up in New England/Maine. After nearly wrecking myself with that Sakrete Snow from last time, I know I'll love me some "Fluff Factor" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 (edited) 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Where's @RTC3-LAST CHANCE at, I need to give him my cell number to give me 12z live updates, I'm headed to church soon. 🤣 RTC? -Church?? 🤔😇 Handwashing the Under Armor? Completing an online WeatherSpeak Lesson? Don't forget to put the phone on vibrate. Edited January 14 by Undertakerson2.0 add language Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Some spots around PA 9z SREF Best Snow Pops Period & Mean Snowfall (ratios considered) Williamsport = 75%+ (1am-7am Tue), 3" Harrisburg = 75%+ (4am-7am), 3" Scranton = 75%+ (4am-1pm), 3½" Allentown = 65%+ (1am-1pm), 3½" Philly = 50%+ (10pm-1am), 2¼" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: RTC? -Church?? 🤔😇 Handwashing the Under Armor? Completing an online WeatherSpeak Lesson? Don't forget to put the phone on vibrate. lol last night's banter with @Rickrd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 More snow in Little Rock than Philadelphia. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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