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Jan. 15-17th, 2024 | NE/MidAtl Winter Storm


MaineJay

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50 minutes ago, 1816 said:

They postponed it. What a bummer. More evidence of the wussification of society. Buffalo used to take pride in snow games. Now this is what we get because it's too dangerous. But the bars and restaurants will still be full I bet. 

Would have been fun to see that but they are talking about multiple feet of snow - not a few inches. It’s likely travel advisories will be issued and local residents will be encouraged to stay home. It’s a significant safety issue if folks get stranded and emergency personnel either can’t get to them or have to put themselves in harms way. 

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Brief CTP blurb in the threat.

 

The latest model runs/QPF show light snow expanding in coverage

from south to north Monday night into early Tuesday. This may

be driven more-so by shortwave trough or upper jet forcing with

models continuing to show uncertainty with track of coastal low.

Another risk to monitor going forward.

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12 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

18z NAM said nope, for interior. Lol 21z SREF may run away fast, compared to 15z.

trend-nam-2024011318-f066.snku_024h-imp.us_ne.gif

Yea I was expecting better from NAM given jump in SREFS. 

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IMBY

 

M.L.King Day: A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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LWX  thoughts 

Quote
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad area of lower heights will persist across much of the CONUS
over the next week. Over time, ridging builds near the West Coast,
and downstream blocking may develop near the Canadian Maritimes.
At the surface, Arctic high pressure will build over the central to
eastern CONUS while multiple waves of low pressure pass from the Mid-
South toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

One wave of low pressure will likely pass to the south Monday night
into Tuesday. Mid/upper-level forcing coupled with modest moisture
should result in the development of some light snow across at least
parts of the area. Guidance continues to gradually come into better
agreement on a light, jet-induced snow event well northwest of a
weak and progressive surface low offshore. This is not a traditional
or classic setup for widespread significant snow, but the timing of
any accumulating snow coupled with very cold temperatures with the
Tuesday morning commute could prove treacherous. Additionally, it
has been about two years since the DC Metro saw more than an inch of
snow, which may also magnify any potential impacts.

Another wave of low pressure may pass to the south heading into
Wednesday, but given the building high pressure to the north and
west suppressing the baroclinic zone precipitation may be more
difficult to come by. Of note, gusty winds behind the wave of low
pressure late Tuesday through early Wednesday coupled with the well
below normal temperatures may produce dangerously low wind chills.

 

 

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