Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, NEPAsnow said: lock it in!!! Unfortunately. More changes coming in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 12z NAm keeps energy bundled in the trough axis. Trough more neutral this run compared to globals. Edited January 13 by Rickrd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Something just not making sense with euro. Gfs. Hard to fathom that we get that flat if a look. It is almost Pacific looking flow. I really don’t care if we get this one or not, but not buying that look at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Unfortunately. More changes coming in future runs. hopefully for the better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 To me, it looks like the Meso models are picking up on what the Baby-G showed yesterday. That being the confluence lifts "just in time" - this is MJ's "Blue move west" scenario in his illustration. I made a gif about it yesterday. Hmmm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12zNAMclown map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 Keep this trend up at H8, baby stepping, but in a more desirable direction. Gotta hold that vorticity at the SC Coast from escaping. SREF H5. Gotta get the base to swing negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Keep this trend up at H8, baby stepping, but in a more desirable direction. Gotta hold that vorticity at the SC Coast from escaping. SREF H5. Gotta get the base to swing negative. Luv this! Thanks. The towel throwing is a bit early. Wouldn’t take much for this to get better quickly. Seems as if the miss is out to sea for sure, but this threat ain’t dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 This piece of energy is actually the storm over Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 If the FV3 is an indicator of the GFS, it's possible that it's going fall short of whelming us. Not as much dig down the spine of the Rockies as the Ole Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, MaineJay said: If the FV3 is an indicator of the GFS, it's possible that it's going fall short of whelming us. Not as much dig down the sound of the Rockies and the Ole Nam. All’s i know is it has been a great read in here the last couple days, and this one is still a possibility - at this point, so for me it will still be fun tracking to see if it comes together. If not, oh well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 13 Admin Share Posted January 13 29 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Luv this! Thanks. The towel throwing is a bit early. Wouldn’t take much for this to get better quickly. Seems as if the miss is out to sea for sure, but this threat ain’t dead yet. 100%. As others have alluded to, several pieces are still yet to be sampled, especially the s/w over no man's land. Little changes in the s/w have large implications down the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Where have I seen this all before? 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Where we are in model-land ATM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Uscg Ast said: 100%. As others have alluded to, several pieces are still yet to be sampled, especially the s/w over no man's land. Little changes in the s/w have large implications down the line. I stay out of the long range conversations , as they have far more weather knowledge than i do and don’t want to clutter it up. But as this one got closer i remember asking Penn State , i think, how are we getting to the promised land with this one, and he gave a great explanation. And it was a lot for the weather gods to pull off, and i said we should keep expectations low for this one to be a big one. So many moving parts, but for me the biggest fly in the ointment was needing the trough to go negative in time. Decades of watching weather tells me that is one of the toughest asks. But geez, this isn’t far off and fun to watch play out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: I think all we need for the big storm, according to the NAM is. Speed up the green. Get the blue as west as possible Slow down the purple Deepen and slightly speed up the black. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy And throw the ball to the water boy for the touchdown. Sorry could not resist… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Not too bad, not great for big snow lovers - somethin I guess. Snow depth tends to be horrible unless it's 32F+ snows. I've learned kuchera is superior specifically in colder fluff scenarios. Some may not like to hear that but it's definitely been a fact at least in my immediate surroundings, SENYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS 12z creeping back towards more snow. Too little too late perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Snow depth tends to be horrible unless it's 32F+ snows. I've learned kuchera is superior specifically in colder fluff scenarios. Some may not like to hear that but it's definitely been a fact at least in my immediate surroundings, SENYS. It's a "means" map, not an outright calculation of snowfall. Not to mention I don't hug the numbers, I view the trends - and that is what my post was meant to convey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Rgem not buying euro gfs idea. Actually seems NW. And remains juicy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: GFS 12z creeping back towards more snow. Too little too late perhaps? In baseball terms - that GFS run was just outside. The pitcher definitely would have wanted that call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: It's a "means" map, not an outright calculation of snowfall. Not to mention I don't hug the numbers, I view the trends - and that is what my post was meant to convey. Understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Rgem not buying euro gfs idea. Actually seems NW. And remains juicy. Yea don’t get your hopes up w the rgem. It’s let me down 99% of the time all the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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