Snowadelphia Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: I’m all seriousness, can any of you think of a storm where it was virtually non existent on the models, then all of a sudden one model run showed it and boom there it was forever! I forget exactly what storm it was, but I do know it was one of the infamous 2009-2010 mid atl bowling ball blizzards. I remember that for days all the models lost the storm idea, then with 60 or so hours left the 18z gfs came in with a monster and all us weather geeks went nuts. I only got a few inches up this way, but all you folks near the Mason Dixon got hammered. That’s the one and only time I can remember it being completely lost then reappearing on the models. There have definitely been storms the models had, lost, and brought back 72 hours or so before the event. Not sure I’d put any money on this being a candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Also, while the Euro/GFS are squishing this, the Canadian still has this trying to round the bend. Good swath of 3”-6” totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 96z NAM FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 16 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: I’m all seriousness, can any of you think of a storm where it was virtually non existent on the models, then all of a sudden one model run showed it and boom there it was forever! I forget exactly what storm it was, but I do know it was one of the infamous 2009-2010 mid atl bowling ball blizzards. I remember that for days all the models lost the storm idea, then with 60 or so hours left the 18z gfs came in with a monster and all us weather geeks went nuts. I only got a few inches up this way, but all you folks near the Mason Dixon got hammered. That’s the one and only time I can remember it being completely lost then reappearing on the models. Boxing Day Blizzard is the one example that always comes to mind. AND it was an 18z GFS run that popped eyeballs and out and out shocked even the most experienced on the AccuWeather Forums. Edit - and though BDB was a 2010 storm, it was not part of Snowmageddon Winter of early 2010 (obviously it was 12/26/2010) Edited January 13 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Still holding out hope! I’ll gladly take a light event or even some mood flakes. I think the last time I saw snow was Yosemite early 2020? Photos for reference. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Not too bad, not great for big snow lovers - somethin I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: 96z NAM FWIW 96 NAM? (ha ha) 96 Tears Maybe Edited January 13 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 17 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: 96z NAM FWIW I'm not sure I've ever seen a low move from myrtle Beach to Hatteras and moisture is only located on the west side of the apps. Not sure that's scientifically possible. Highly suspicious. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 21 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Not too bad, not great for big snow lovers - somethin I guess. Right. I guess we need to level set what towels are being thrown for. A warning criteria snow? Sure. A NADS event? Towel still in hand. SREF plumes (that consider ratios) mean is 2"ish in the interior with a 60% pop at 9z. /shrugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 34 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Boxing Day Blizzard is the one example that always comes to mind. AND it was an 18z GFS run that popped eyeballs and out and out shocked even the most experienced on the AccuWeather Forums. Edit - and though BDB was a 2010 storm, it was not part of Snowmageddon Winter of early 2010 (obviously it was 12/26/2010) agreed. I feel as though it was not there again until Christmas Eve so it snuck up on alot of people since everyone was focused on Christmas. I remember telling relatives on Christmas Day that they were going to get two feet along the coast and they were in utter disbelief. They still thank me to this day for letting them know. It still gave them enough time to prepare, but thay had no clue whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Miller A said: agreed. I feel as though it was not there again until Christmas Eve so it snuck up on alot of people since everyone was focused on Christmas. I remember telling relatives on Christmas Day that they were going to get two feet along the coast and they were in utter disbelief. They still thank me to this day for letting them know. It still gave them enough time to prepare, but thay had no clue whatsoever Yep, that 18z run was only 60 hours out. No one believed it - it was HH GFS after all. Then the others joined in just two days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 "It says here Charlie Brown - that weather models are not legally binding contracts" 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: "It says here Charlie Brown - that weather models are not legally binding contracts" Yee of little faith. I just know Lucy will hold that football this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 While there is high confidence in the overall synoptic pattern through Thursday (i.e., coastal low pressure tracking generally northeastwards as high pressure builds to the west and then moves eastward) there remains low confidence and high uncertainty regarding the details, mainly for the Tuesday/Tuesday night time frame. The deterministic models still differ on the exact track the coastal low will take Monday night into Wednesday, making for a challenging forecast. If coastal low pressure is able to move with a more northerly than easterly component, a snow event will be on the horizon for our region as the system will have access to plenty of cold air this time around. If coastal low pressure is able to move more easterly than northerly then our region may only see a few light snow showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. Overall, we will just have to wait and see where low pressure spawns off the coast in order to get a better handle on the forecast track. Mount Holly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: While there is high confidence in the overall synoptic pattern through Thursday (i.e., coastal low pressure tracking generally northeastwards as high pressure builds to the west and then moves eastward) there remains low confidence and high uncertainty regarding the details, mainly for the Tuesday/Tuesday night time frame. The deterministic models still differ on the exact track the coastal low will take Monday night into Wednesday, making for a challenging forecast. If coastal low pressure is able to move with a more northerly than easterly component, a snow event will be on the horizon for our region as the system will have access to plenty of cold air this time around. If coastal low pressure is able to move more easterly than northerly then our region may only see a few light snow showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. Overall, we will just have to wait and see where low pressure spawns off the coast in order to get a better handle on the forecast track. Mount Holly Seems I may have to resort to the look out the front door app once again. Oh well, sometimes they can nail it, sometimes they can't. I guess we have not quite learned to outsmarted the original manufacturer yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said: I’m all seriousness, can any of you think of a storm where it was virtually non existent on the models, then all of a sudden one model run showed it and boom there it was forever! I forget exactly what storm it was, but I do know it was one of the infamous 2009-2010 mid atl bowling ball blizzards. I remember that for days all the models lost the storm idea, then with 60 or so hours left the 18z gfs came in with a monster and all us weather geeks went nuts. I only got a few inches up this way, but all you folks near the Mason Dixon got hammered. That’s the one and only time I can remember it being completely lost then reappearing on the models. Was it the boxing day blizzard 2010 or 2011? I remember models had storm, lost it completely day 5 and two days before the storm all models all of the sudden came back to showing a monster coastal. 🤔 I was telling everyone Christmas day we were getting a blizzard and no one believed me, slowly throughout the day media outlets started putting out warnings and updates. Edited January 13 by LUCC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) Mr. NAM. What are you up to? 6z NAM 12k Edited January 13 by Rickrd 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Mr. NAM. What are you up to? Haha who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 13 Meteorologist Share Posted January 13 Unfortunate the Euro led the way with the non storm solution we will see but im not holding much more than some snow showers at this point. The GFS trend is something you do not want to see. The ULL is pressing down hard again instead of being up NW of the GL closer to the SW edge of the Hudson which would have been a much better position. Virtually no western ridging anymore the atlantic ridging no conducive to help slow the fleeing energy so it seems very strung out. I guess we still technically have 48 hrs to go for some more changes but these are not the changes you wanna see. Maybe portions of SNE into Maine could get into a quick hitting storm with enough changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 I think all we need for the big storm, according to the NAM is. Speed up the green. Get the blue as west as possible Slow down the purple Deepen and slightly speed up the black. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, MaineJay said: I think all we need for the big storm, according to the NAM is. Speed up the green. Get the blue as west as possible Slow down the purple Deepen and slightly speed up the black. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy 12zNAM. So far so good. energy direction handled differently in the NW compared to Euro and GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Rickrd said: 12zNAM. So far so good. energy direction handled differently in the NW compared to Euro and GFS. Seems to be the real key. I don’t quite get the giving up yet , as we have been saying about when picture becomes clearer. If you are giving up, that you are assuming the euro and gfs are correct. Are they? Were they last storm at this time frame? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Seeing differences. 12zNAM TOP 06zGFS BOTTOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 z NAM. HR 75 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Rickrd said: 12 z NAM. HR 75 lock it in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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