Jump to content

Jan. 15-17th, 2024 | NE/MidAtl Winter Storm


MaineJay

Recommended Posts

Slip sli-ding away, slip sliding away, you know the nearer your destination the more you're slip sliding away

I knew a man - he lived near my home town

He'd always hug his favorite model and give out phony crowns

He said, now honey, I live in fear

My love for snow's so overpowerin, and the next run it just disappears. 

Slip slidin' away (repeat chorus)

I knew a woman, just like my wife

These are the very words she uses to describe her life

She said on a good day, she shouts at the rain

On a bad day she just lies around and dreams of snow - that might of been

Slip sliding away (repeat chorus)

And I knew a father and his son

They always talked about a snow storm in extended runs

They use such language, just to explain

Then they kiss away their chances each time the models run again

Slip sliding away, slip sliding away - sometimes the nearer your destination the more it's slip sliding away. 

 

  • SAD 1
  • THUMBS UP 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Oh I’m not asking for a foot.  But no storm forms now.  Especially compared to what the euro was showing 3-4 days ago.   Still some hope for the 19-20 timeframe 

I hear ya. A few inches definitely still possible IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Oh I’m not asking for a foot.  But no storm forms now.  Especially compared to what the euro was showing 3-4 days ago.   Still some hope for the 19-20 timeframe 

 

16 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Honestly - it was me putting the chains on the Kubota.

I seriously apologize (hand behind back fingers crossed) 

(sets to thinking of other things he can do to negate snow storms) 

Take them off immediately and put the tractor away for the winter.

Thanks

Sincerely,

EVERYONE 

  • LAUGH 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Rdps, iconic, ukie, Nam all well nw of the major/ globals.

Maybe my sacrificial song will appease the snow God/Goddess?

Anyway, I (half jokingly) said yesterday to not worry - the NAM will bring it back 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LWX  thoughts and analysis  

Basically  high probability of snow. However less than an inch accumulation. 

Quote
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper troughing will reside across the eastern two-thirds of
the CONUS Tuesday morning, with a surface boundary draped well to
our south off the Carolina coastline. We`ll be situated squarely
within the cold air well to the north of this boundary. A weak
disturbance aloft will lift northeastward through the frontside of
the much broader longwave trough, passing overhead Tuesday morning.
Model guidance has trended less amplified with this disturbance in
the 00z guidance, and seems to be converging around a light snowfall
event across the region. 00z ensemble guidance shows high
probabilities (70-90 percent) for measurable snowfall, but
relatively low probabilities for even two inches (around 10-20
percent). The highest probabilities for an inch of snow (around 40-
50 percent) reside along the I-95 corridor, with lesser chances to
the west of the Blue Ridge. Deterministic guidance is also in
agreement that this while it should snow, this doesn`t appear to be
a major event in terms of snowfall totals. While the snowfall totals
likely won`t be large, the snow could be impactful. In terms of
timing, it looks like the greatest chance for snow will be during
the late night hours Monday night through the morning commute
Tuesday. Temperatures will also be cold leading up to, and during
the event. Overnight lows Monday night should be in the mid 20s for
most, with temperatures holding in the upper 20s to low 30s through
Tuesday morning. While the snow will be light, it does appear that
it will be cold enough for it to stick to untreated surface. So
there could be impacts to the morning commute.

Any light snow should clear the area by Tuesday evening as low
pressure develops offshore, and a reinforcing cold front moves
through the area. Very cold conditions are expected behind this
reinforcing cold front Tuesday night, with temperatures dropping
back into the teens for most (single digits in the mountains). When
combined with a stiff northwest wind, wind chills will bottom out in
the single digits for most, with below zero readings to the west of
I-81, and double digits below zero in the Alleghenies

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

 

Take them off immediately and put the tractor away for the winter.

Thanks

Sincerely,

EVERYONE 

If you all aren't going to stop with your jinx stuff I'm not gonna stop either

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3z SREF with a big bump on snow pops for interior PA. 21z was like under 10% across the board.

Edit, 21z wasnt bad actually. Guess I last looked at 15z which was not awe inspiring lol

Screenshot_20240113-070210_Chrome.jpg

Edited by JDClapper
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

3z SREF with a big bump on snow pops for interior PA. 21z was like under 10% across the board.

Edit, 21z wasnt bad actually. Guess I last looked at 15z which was not awe inspiring lol

Screenshot_20240113-070210_Chrome.jpg

How about we just look at this so everyone can see there sref mean.

 

sref-all-mean-nystate-total_snow_10to1-5428000.thumb.png.db75d49b1609383ba574e12b559b436f.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

Screenshot 2024-01-13 070805.png

Yep, its no footer (which happens like once every 8-10 yrs) but its a possible 1, 2, 3er.. which happens like 10 times a year. 👍

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Yep, its no footer (which happens like once every 8-10 yrs) but its a possible 1, 2, 3er.. which happens like 10 times a year. 👍

How did you do last storm? I kinda disappeared once it got going. Was working 40+ hours straight. We got generally 14" some areas 16".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, HVSNOWSTORM said:

How did you do last storm? I kinda disappeared once it got going. Was working 40+ hours straight. We got generally 14" some areas 16".

Barely eeked out 5"

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m all seriousness, can any of you think of a storm where it was virtually non existent on the models, then all of a sudden one model run showed it and boom there it was forever!  
 

I forget exactly what storm it was, but I do know it was one of the infamous 2009-2010 mid atl bowling ball blizzards.  I remember that for days all the models lost the storm idea, then with 60 or so hours left the 18z gfs came in with a monster and all us weather geeks went nuts.  I only got a few inches up this way, but all you folks near the Mason Dixon got hammered.  That’s the one and only time I can remember it being completely lost then reappearing on the models. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...