Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Honestly - it was me putting the chains on the Kubota. I seriously apologize (hand behind back fingers crossed) (sets to thinking of other things he can do to negate snow storms) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Slip sli-ding away, slip sliding away, you know the nearer your destination the more you're slip sliding away I knew a man - he lived near my home town He'd always hug his favorite model and give out phony crowns He said, now honey, I live in fear My love for snow's so overpowerin, and the next run it just disappears. Slip slidin' away (repeat chorus) I knew a woman, just like my wife These are the very words she uses to describe her life She said on a good day, she shouts at the rain On a bad day she just lies around and dreams of snow - that might of been Slip sliding away (repeat chorus) And I knew a father and his son They always talked about a snow storm in extended runs They use such language, just to explain Then they kiss away their chances each time the models run again Slip sliding away, slip sliding away - sometimes the nearer your destination the more it's slip sliding away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 34 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Oh I’m not asking for a foot. But no storm forms now. Especially compared to what the euro was showing 3-4 days ago. Still some hope for the 19-20 timeframe I hear ya. A few inches definitely still possible IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 34 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Oh I’m not asking for a foot. But no storm forms now. Especially compared to what the euro was showing 3-4 days ago. Still some hope for the 19-20 timeframe 16 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Honestly - it was me putting the chains on the Kubota. I seriously apologize (hand behind back fingers crossed) (sets to thinking of other things he can do to negate snow storms) Take them off immediately and put the tractor away for the winter. Thanks Sincerely, EVERYONE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Iconic model is amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Maybe some sick snow squalls tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) BabyG still likin - it still shows moderate snow at this end of run hour Edited January 13 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: BabyG still likin Rdps, iconic, ukie, Nam all well nw of the major/ globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Rdps, iconic, ukie, Nam all well nw of the major/ globals. Maybe my sacrificial song will appease the snow God/Goddess? Anyway, I (half jokingly) said yesterday to not worry - the NAM will bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Yesterday I mentioned waiting until Noon today to know which way we're goin Window closing fast But still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Pretty Reasonable is you just copy and pasted as your forecast... as it feels the NWS often does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 LWX thoughts and analysis Basically high probability of snow. However less than an inch accumulation. Quote LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper troughing will reside across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS Tuesday morning, with a surface boundary draped well to our south off the Carolina coastline. We`ll be situated squarely within the cold air well to the north of this boundary. A weak disturbance aloft will lift northeastward through the frontside of the much broader longwave trough, passing overhead Tuesday morning. Model guidance has trended less amplified with this disturbance in the 00z guidance, and seems to be converging around a light snowfall event across the region. 00z ensemble guidance shows high probabilities (70-90 percent) for measurable snowfall, but relatively low probabilities for even two inches (around 10-20 percent). The highest probabilities for an inch of snow (around 40- 50 percent) reside along the I-95 corridor, with lesser chances to the west of the Blue Ridge. Deterministic guidance is also in agreement that this while it should snow, this doesn`t appear to be a major event in terms of snowfall totals. While the snowfall totals likely won`t be large, the snow could be impactful. In terms of timing, it looks like the greatest chance for snow will be during the late night hours Monday night through the morning commute Tuesday. Temperatures will also be cold leading up to, and during the event. Overnight lows Monday night should be in the mid 20s for most, with temperatures holding in the upper 20s to low 30s through Tuesday morning. While the snow will be light, it does appear that it will be cold enough for it to stick to untreated surface. So there could be impacts to the morning commute. Any light snow should clear the area by Tuesday evening as low pressure develops offshore, and a reinforcing cold front moves through the area. Very cold conditions are expected behind this reinforcing cold front Tuesday night, with temperatures dropping back into the teens for most (single digits in the mountains). When combined with a stiff northwest wind, wind chills will bottom out in the single digits for most, with below zero readings to the west of I-81, and double digits below zero in the Alleghenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 27 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Take them off immediately and put the tractor away for the winter. Thanks Sincerely, EVERYONE If you all aren't going to stop with your jinx stuff I'm not gonna stop either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 3z SREF with a big bump on snow pops for interior PA. 21z was like under 10% across the board. Edit, 21z wasnt bad actually. Guess I last looked at 15z which was not awe inspiring lol Edited January 13 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 3z SREF with a big bump on snow pops for interior PA. 21z was like under 10% across the board. Edit, 21z wasnt bad actually. Guess I last looked at 15z which was not awe inspiring lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 06Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 3z SREF with a big bump on snow pops for interior PA. 21z was like under 10% across the board. Edit, 21z wasnt bad actually. Guess I last looked at 15z which was not awe inspiring lol How about we just look at this so everyone can see there sref mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Yep, its no footer (which happens like once every 8-10 yrs) but its a possible 1, 2, 3er.. which happens like 10 times a year. 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Wtkidz said: 06Z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Yep, its no footer (which happens like once every 8-10 yrs) but its a possible 1, 2, 3er.. which happens like 10 times a year. 👍 How did you do last storm? I kinda disappeared once it got going. Was working 40+ hours straight. We got generally 14" some areas 16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 06z hi rez euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, HVSNOWSTORM said: How did you do last storm? I kinda disappeared once it got going. Was working 40+ hours straight. We got generally 14" some areas 16". Barely eeked out 5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 This is a day 4 event however the 06 euro and GFS are very similar. Light snow event. can this change ? Yes . Will it ? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZLearned Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 It’s time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I’m all seriousness, can any of you think of a storm where it was virtually non existent on the models, then all of a sudden one model run showed it and boom there it was forever! I forget exactly what storm it was, but I do know it was one of the infamous 2009-2010 mid atl bowling ball blizzards. I remember that for days all the models lost the storm idea, then with 60 or so hours left the 18z gfs came in with a monster and all us weather geeks went nuts. I only got a few inches up this way, but all you folks near the Mason Dixon got hammered. That’s the one and only time I can remember it being completely lost then reappearing on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now