Rickrd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 17 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Today's system was always going to be somewhere near James bay, it was always a question of the phasing. The safe bet is generally on the late phase, but that's also not much fun. It's still trying to figure it out, and sometimes as the models try to resolve the interactions, they flip flop between kicking and phasing. Maybe the recon data finds something that helps us out. Was just going to say lets wait for the key to the solution to enter the NW I believe sometime tomorrow afternoon/night. then we will see how it’s handled by the models then Sunday night, we can all…. See below Edited January 13 by Rickrd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: More words of wisdom 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Please , please do not bury this opportunity until later tomorrow , and preferably Sunday. You realize our current cutter has thunder snow, deep low pressure, and torpedoing temps on the back side. Check midwest forum. Think that doesn’t shake up the atmosphere, like shaking a snow globe? Not saying we get whacked, but no way current modeling has this down pat right now. They failed Weather class 101 last week- don’t get me started again. Check the playing field out tomorrow. Don’t do, cough, cough , go all Snobal. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 ICON not much to get excited… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 22 hours ago, Rickrd said: Were you at CLM? I think on Long Island? Yes I am on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Wtkidz said: ICON not much to get excited… Guess I'm back to not caring about what ICON has to say. 😅 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Please , please do not bury this opportunity until later tomorrow , and preferably Sunday. You realize our current cutter has thunder snow, deep low pressure, and torpedoing temps on the back side. Check midwest forum. Think that doesn’t shake up the atmosphere, like shaking a snow globe? Not saying we get whacked, but no way current modeling has this down pat right now. They failed Weather class 101 last week- don’t get me started again. Check the playing field out tomorrow. Don’t do, cough, cough , go all Snobal. When storms move through, I'd say more often than not, they move quicker. So im going to be watching if that's kind of thing happens with the current storm. Not saying it being faster would even be a net gain, just that there's still trof evolution to go, so the solution will not necessarily be what we see on they models now. And with stream interactions involved, wider error bounds. This isn't like the recent midweek system that the models had a lock on from T minus 200 hours. That one was a one piece deal really, much simpler from a modeling perspective. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 000 FXUS61 KPHI 130249 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 949 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong frontal system will move across the Mid Atlantic region tonight while low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region. This low will drift across eastern Canada Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, a mostly dry cold front will move across the area Sunday. High pressure will try to briefly inch its way into the area Sunday night into Monday, before a coastal low moves northward offshore of the east coast Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds across the southeast states Wednesday into Wednesdsay nigith, then offshore Thursday into Thursday night. Another coastal low is possible next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 930 PM update... no major changes to the forecast this evening as rain overspreads the region presently. Looks like snow may be extremely brief in the Poconos as the lastest observation already has rain at MPO. Tweaked winds to bring them a bit more in line with current headlines, but made no headline changes. 4 PM discussion...A strong storm system remains on track to bring some significant impacts to our region beginning tonight through Saturday. A vertically stacked closed surface low will develop over the southern Plains and deepen rapidly into a ~970 mb low as it tracks up through the southern Great Lakes tonight. A warm front will also push up through the Mid- Atlantic region during the overnight hours leading to a non diurnal temperature swing. Temps will start to drop with the loss of diurnal heating early this evening, but then warm air advection will push temps up well into the 50s through the rest of the night tonight. Despite a strong push of warm aid advection that will occur tonight, forecast soundings across the Poconos continue to indicate that enough cold air may be present initially from the antecedent high pressure, that some wintry precipitation may fall at the onset. Guidance over the last couple of runs has trended a bit higher on QPF so the forecast has been updated to around a half an inch of snow and before the precip changes over to rain. Otherwise, rain will overspread the area tonight from southwest to northeast from about 7 PM to 10 PM. The rain will end between 3 AM to 6 AM for most areas, though some light showers may linger into mid Saturday morning. A strong south-southeast 65-85 kt low level jet will develop tonight advecting in a rich plume of deep moisture off the Atlantic. Precipitable water values across most of the region will range from 1.0-1.5 inches which is above the 90th percentile for mid- January standards. The strong LLJ in combination with aided moisture will bring periods of moderate to at times heavy rainfall across the area. The flood risk will remain high over the weekend mainly along the main stem rivers as stream flows are extremely high and for the Passaic basin many of the gauges will still be in flood stage as the additional rainfall starts running off. Thus a flood watch remains in effect for portions of E PA, NJ and DE given the fact that saturated soils and stream/water levels remain high. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.5-1.0 inches along the I-95 corridor and points south and east. For areas north and west of the I-95 corridor, amounts will be a bit higher ranging from 1.0-1.5 inches, with locally up to 2.0 inches possible. In addition to the low level jet, which will be maximized across portions of the Delmarva and the Coastal Plain, there will be a rapidly tightening pressure gradient tonight in response to the deepening surface low. Current consensus is for a ~28 mb pressure fall in about 12 hours overnight, which is significant, though not quite as extreme as the pressure falls observed Tuesday night. A slight chance of thunder remains in the forecast with up to 500 J/kg of elevated CAPE available to tap into. Thus, there will likely be some convective elements to the rain tonight. Winds remain a challenging forecast during the overnight hours as guidance still shows some indications of a weak inversion right off the surface. With SE flow, the guidance tends to be slightly overdone, particularly well inland northwest of I-95. Given the potential for convective elements within the rains overnight, any heavier bursts of rain could help mix down the stronger winds in the LLJ, even northwest of I-95. Long story short, the wind and wind gust forecast has increased slightly and we`re now forecasting gusts of 40-50 mph for most inland areas. Given the sensitivity and potential increased impacts due to the very saturated ground, we opted to expand the Wind Advisory to cover the entire forecast area. We anticipate the strongest surge of winds to be somewhat brief, with the gusts up to 50 mph across the inland areas and near 50-60 mph along the immediate coastline, as the the cold front moves closer and the winds veer to more of south to southwest. The immediate Atlantic coastal strip is forecast to experience sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph for a few hours, which combined with potential for gusts up to 60 mph is enough to warrant an upgrade to a High Wind Warning for this area. Due to extremely saturated soil moistures, the forecast winds will have the potential to uproot trees even at slightly lower wind speeds should the observed winds fall short of the deterministic forecast. Following the frontal passage on Saturday morning, most areas will remain dry aside from a few lingering showers possible in the morning. Winds will remain elevated as the strong pressure gradient persists between the low pivoting over Canada and high pressure over the southeast US. This will be accompanied by a moderate push of cold air advection, where temps on Saturday will be falling throughout the afternoon after morning temps rise into the low to mid 50s. Cold air advection will continue through Saturday night as skies begin to clear with temps falling into the mid 20s to low 30s by Sunday morning. The cold advection will support efficient mixing of the boundary layer during the daytime hours. Model consensus indicates winds of 30-40 kts within this mixed layer at the 925 mb level. This supports a forecast for wind gusts near 40-50 mph possible following the post front lull in the winds early in the morning. Given this potential and the continued sensitivity of tree damage and power outage potential with the very wet ground, we`ve opted to extend the Wind Advisory through the daytime Saturday as well. A Wind Advisory follows the High Wind Warning for the Atlantic coastal strip. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sunday looks pretty windy and colder as a strong arctic front plows across the region, with temps falling as we head into the afternoon. Some of the longer range CAMs even suggest a line of snow showers along the front, so have boosted pops a bit. Dry conditions are expected to continue across the area Sunday night into Monday as the high pressure to the west tries to build into the Mid Atlantic region. As this does so, winds will diminish as well. These dry conditions probably won`t continue long. As we move into Monday night, some light precipitation might develop across the area ahead of an approaching coastal storm. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The coastal storm is expected to move northward offshore of the east coast Tuesday into Tuesday night. As the storm passes to the east, enhanced lift and moisture is forecast to develop on the west side of the system and move across portions of the Mid Atlantic region. This would lead to a period of precipitation for Tuesday into Tuesday night, and with cold temperatures forecast, many areas could see some accumulating snow. However, there still remains a fair amount of uncertainty with the storm, mostly due to the placement of the embedded short wave/vorticity max with this system. The GFS and Canadian bring the short wave across the Mid Atlantic, bringing more precipitation, while the ECMWF and ICON bring the short wave across the Great Lakes region, which could hinder precipitation chances. On Wednesday into Wednesday night, high pressure builds across the southeast states, before shifting offshore Thursday. While the high will not be directly over the Mid Atlantic region, it should have enough of an impact on the area to keep the weather dry Wednesday into Thursday. For Friday, there is the potential for another low pressure system to develop and strengthen near the area. This could bring another round of precipitation across the area, and with cold temperatures, snow could be possible again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Think that’s a pretty good synopsis of where we are at. Robertson a cool cat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: ICON not much to get excited… Not aimed at you, I just stop reading at Icon generally. So it being crappy might be a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Ok, and it didn’t link properly, so apologize for crashing the forum. Doing this linking crap by phone, with alcohol, is just a bad idear. Kids, don’t drink and link. Sorry guys. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Not aimed at you, I just stop reading at Icon generally. So it being crappy might be a good thing. Would you rather.... Forecast with ICON or NAVGEM Gotta choose one! 😆 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 LWX words about storm Quote LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain. Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada - will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z) remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago. As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the next 1 to 2 days. Big thing to take away from it. As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the next 1 to 2 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 19 minutes ago, StretchCT said: More words of wisdom That was the one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Would you rather.... Forecast with ICON or NAVGEM Gotta choose one! 😆 I'd take my chances with the NAV and it's assumed progressive bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, MaineJay said: I'd take my chances with the NAV and it's assumed progressive bias Yeah, was on the same lines. ICON would be like watching a weather app.. 0z, 42 and rain. 6z, 34 and flurries. 12z, 37 and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, JDClapper said: Yeah, was on the same lines. ICON would be like watching a weather app.. 0z, 42 and rain. 6z, 34 and flurries. 12z, 37 and sunny Oh you mean the BS that the weather channel does on their app and website. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 13 Moderators Share Posted January 13 We need something to happen, or we're going to have a bunch of disappointed weather weenies. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 13 Admin Share Posted January 13 13 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Would you rather.... Forecast with ICON or NAVGEM Gotta choose one! 😆 At least the Navgem has the known Bias. The Icon is just... Well its @RTC3-LAST CHANCE linking and drinking. You never know what you got, but its always there 😁 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 13 Moderators Share Posted January 13 A little better I suppose could be the orientation of the vorticity that is messing with me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Since we have a break in the action, please cheer me up. Took my wife and son out to celebrate his getting a gov’t defense job upgrade.Serious shit. So i spent the entire night canvassing the place again, to try and figure out who the wifey slept with, cuz their is just no way my genes produced that, and if they did, you wouldn’t be reading this , cuz y’all would be all blowed up. So lie, and cheer me up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, Tater said: We need something to happen, or we're going to have a bunch of disappointed weather weenies. I can still have a good time fishing even if I don't catch a fish. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 13 Moderators Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: At least the Navgem has the known Bias. The Icon is just... Well its @RTC3-LAST CHANCE linking and drinking. You never know what you got, but its always there 😁 Dang you made me laugh into a coughing fit. Now I woke everyone up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 13 Author Admin Share Posted January 13 Just now, StretchCT said: A little better I suppose could be the orientation of the vorticity that is messing with me though I think we need the current storm to rotate as far westward as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 13 Moderators Share Posted January 13 Icon. German engineering. Any of you who have had the "pleasure" of owning and maintaining a VW or other German car know where I'm going with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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