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Jan. 15-17th, 2024 | NE/MidAtl Winter Storm


MaineJay

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25 minutes ago, Gettysburger said:

I honestly see issues with the way the Euro is handling this energy. It looses it half way across the country and gets stuck in the rockies. Then just pops it out off of FL like two or three frames later. It gets stuck around all those isobars. I wonder if the model is having a difficult time picking it up and grasping what it’s doing. Just a thought and thinking out loud lol. 

Usually I see the GFS rushing systems across and the Euro lagging.  This is why I say the predictible order of modleing has Navy furthest east, then gfs, then euro or cmc, then ukie. This time its the opposite.  The euro is taking that shortwave in the upper flow way faster than the other models and as Bernie points out, splits the trough.  Seems weird. But there's been so many tweaks to models in the last few years, I'm not sure the typical biases apply anymore.  An example of that is the navy, which no longer seems the most progressive and weakest.  That model was blowing up storms left and right over the summer. 

I'm also thinking the AIFS and other AI models aren't in agreement with the Euro Op.  

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16 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

snobalstophuggingmodels.PNG.c80ed387b0318ee71acb7905aabad249.PNG

Snowball will never die. He just gets quoted again and again.   Let’s see how this plays out before we cry….. where is doorman when we need him ? Look to the winds. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

Snowball will never die. He just gets quoted again and again.   Let’s see how this plays out before we cry….. where is doorman when we need him ? Look to the winds. 

 

He was speaking truth there.

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On 1/9/2024 at 10:08 PM, Pghsnow said:

Ben what are you looking at? Yes there is no BIG storm but 18z was very snowy for us. It was actually a very Pittsburgh pattern. We do small, light snows and that was full of them. 

snku_acc-imp.us_ma-1.png

Flurries. Yay!

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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Man it looks worse

trend-ecmwf_full-2024011218-f084.500hv.conus.gif.db10b71a02347bac23103fc85fe66991.gif

Todays system is messing it up. 

Today's system was always going to be somewhere near James bay, it was always a question of the phasing.  

 The safe bet is generally on the late phase, but that's also not much fun.  It's still trying to figure it out, and sometimes as the models try to resolve the interactions, they flip flop between kicking and phasing.

  Maybe the recon data finds something that helps us out.

recon_AF305-07WSE-IOP16.thumb.png.7f5706f0649bcdd7bbb967e5827e158b.png

 

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  • The title was changed to Jan. 15-17th, 2024 | NE/MidAtl Winter Storm Potential

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