Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Rickrd said: Don't think the 18Z is going to be pretty 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Hey now - I see changes on 18z LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Surface trend looks ok so far, less out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gonna be waaaay inside this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Wish the ridge out west was a little steeper and heights out front a little higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Gonna be waaaay inside this time It jumped to the convection - wrong!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 (edited) hr 90 - seems slower, both waves Edited January 12 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 As they say...... SHE GONE this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Still flatter than 12z - weaker shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It tried, then lost it entirely. Oh well. All drink, everybody drink. I'm off to billiards and darts (yes I still do that) 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: It tried, then lost it entirely. Oh well. All drink, everybody drink. I'm off to billiards and darts (yes I still do that) Enjoy and cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Later all. See ya tonight 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) 🤢🤮None of us liked that so, drinking sounds good. Edited January 12 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Rickrd said: Later all. See ya tonight Peace! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 This shows how weaker the shortwave is. Much closer to the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: It jumped to the convection - wrong!! 500 jumped to way more euro like. Flat and Progressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 No too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Well that stinks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, 1816 said: I have been thinking about this theory a bit. Lot of you probably feel this way, maybe not who knows. But people always talk about how the models don't see this or that, it they're flailing around, or they're jumpy, or they're waffling. But maybe that's not the biggest problem. Maybe the reality is that minor things change that can't be modeled. A butterfly flaps its wings, a POD of orcas blowing water in the air, whatever. Those minor things are why 5 days out is impossible but one day out is OK. The models aren't changing based on seeing anything differently. What they are seeing is different and changing minorly constantly. Feel free to ignore this post lol. I got my bachelors in Math and computer science, then somehow ended up in medicine, but still find myself thinking mostly in math. Computer models are amazing, but it is easy to forget they essentially are mathematical equations. Data in, data out. However, we are not talking about a simple equation, and calling it complex does not do it justice either. Mathematical equations attempting to predict weather, I am truly amazed they do as well as they do. I think it was idee on wxdisco who said we are trying to predict fluid dynamics on a rotating spherical surface. That may be challenging enough, but as you suggested, there is a never ending influx of varying variables. Worse, how much any one of those varying variables is exhibiting any influence may change from time to time. Some days that butterly flapping makes a difference, other days it does not. So, it is quite simple really, just boils down to an infinite number of variables that are infinitely variable. Solve that equation and we have it nailed. The climate is changing, always has, always will, and over time we learn how different phenomena bear their influence. I can only assume the various teleconnections, MJO, etc. have not always been known about, and as they are realized they are added to the equation. Sorry, I rant, but it is a topic I often think about too. Back in the day, I actually did some assembler level programming, When I think of that, the computer programming we have access to today is quite mind boggling. 3 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) GFS 18Z looked more promising at hour 84, then it fell apart. Oh well time for cocktails. Enjoy everyone. Edited January 12 by TheComet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 FWIW here's Bernie Rayno and his thoughts. https://youtu.be/1HYx83ZI0qU?si=ZP3GxxStFmQUzTx9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, Lazman said: FWIW here's Bernie Rayno and his thoughts. https://youtu.be/1HYx83ZI0qU?si=ZP3GxxStFmQUzTx9 Someone should let him know about the F11 keybind 😉. Great info on the h5 maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: The durned snow freaks appreciate you and thank you. Are you by Jacksonville? If so, you can give us updates to the JAX Rule(*). 😉 *JAX Rule Primer - when it's cold over our region, and thunderstorms are abundant in JAX Fl, it often enhances the storm as it gains latitude. Just doing my part to assure everyone else can enjoy winter. Not by Jacksonville, so I'll be of no help, although they are calling for thunderstorms all day here, Siesta Key, on Tuesday 10 hours ago, Chris2333 said: Don’t take this the wrong way but if we get hit with a snowstorm, and I may be speaking for everyone, just stay until spring. Heard the weather is nice down there. 😉 I'll start a go fund me that you can all contribute to so that I can extend my stay. I think that's a fair trade of. I've got my golf clubs with me, so I'll happily stay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I honestly see issues with the way the Euro is handling this energy. It looses it half way across the country and gets stuck in the rockies. Then just pops it out off of FL like two or three frames later. It gets stuck around all those isobars. I wonder if the model is having a difficult time picking it up and grasping what it’s doing. Just a thought and thinking out loud lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Snowman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 hours ago, lvnbraves said: I bought snowsuits for the kids after the last snowstorm, 2 or so years ago...it hasn't really snowed here since. I bought them big, but am guessing they may not fit...so as soon as they outrgrow them, the snowgates will open. I'm sure they don't fit anymore, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Gettysburger said: I honestly see issues with the way the Euro is handling this energy. It looses it half way across the country and gets stuck in the rockies. Then just pops it out off of FL like two or three frames later. It gets stuck around all those isobars. I wonder if the model is having a difficult time picking it up and grasping what it’s doing. Just a thought and thinking out loud lol. The current systems are the gremlins messing with the model runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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