TheComet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The piece of northern 500MB energy that would help form our "storm" is still 36 hours away from making landfall: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ya'll crack me up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I guess EPS was a sh*t show, judging by no posts about it? 😞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 58 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said: Gotta see what short term models like the NAM start to show tomorrow. Was gonna say that a bit ago. "NAM will straighten this out" LMAO 9 minutes ago, Chris2333 said: Throw them out. The community here will overnight new ones once a snowstorm happens… I have a Schrödinger’s cat situation with my snowblower, haven’t started it in 2 years. Does it still work? Maybe, will I start it up? Nope because that will guarantee no snow, will roll the dice once we get a good storm. At this point, I'm hoping for a nice snow threat (double digits) so I can see if I can unload my snowblower. It's actually a really nice one - but the wife prefers shoveling so it don't get used much (I get the tractor out) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I recall guidance having and losing the 1996 storm only to come roaring back 24 hours before it hit. I realize there were more players with that one. Agree, until guidance sees the main piece of energy come on shore to the west, then they will hopefully get a good handle on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 35 minutes ago, Gettysburger said: What do you all know about the Norm McDonald rule? I kinda remember JB and HM talking about it back when I followed them. Can't remember if it applied to upper lows, surface lows or both. Or if it only applied to bowling ball type systems. But in looking at the 500mb chart, the piece of energy over CT/LI below.... ....started in Oregon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, George Acton said: I recall guidance having and losing the 1996 storm only to come roaring back 24 hours before it hit. I realize there were more players with that one. Agree, until guidance sees the main piece of energy come on shore to the west, then they will hopefully get a good handle on it. We can cite at least half a dozen examples of the models "losing" then regaining a scenario (Boxing Day Blizzard comes to mind) Not where ya wanna be if you're hoping for a major event. Kind of four flushing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 (edited) 12 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I guess EPS was a sh*t show, judging by no posts about it? 😞 Still a bit outside Edited January 12 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I guess EPS was a sh*t show, judging by no posts about it? 😞 But... the precip field is further west. And stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hey, I know this is a winter storm thread and off topic, is Winter Warlock on this forum. I know he was a moderator on WXDisco, and also Planet Master. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: But... the precip field is further west. And stronger Maybe that late blooming light snow on the west side is catching some steam.. hey, I will take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 GEFS didn't do us any favors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, George Acton said: Hey, I know this is a winter storm thread and off topic, is Winter Warlock on this forum. I know he was a moderator on WXDisco, and also Planet Master. Haven't seen him. You can look up members in the search feature in the upper right if you want to see who is here. Next to the magnifying glass is a dropdown feature. Some members changed their names though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I have been thinking about this theory a bit. Lot of you probably feel this way, maybe not who knows. But people always talk about how the models don't see this or that, it they're flailing around, or they're jumpy, or they're waffling. But maybe that's not the biggest problem. Maybe the reality is that minor things change that can't be modeled. A butterfly flaps its wings, a POD of orcas blowing water in the air, whatever. Those minor things are why 5 days out is impossible but one day out is OK. The models aren't changing based on seeing anything differently. What they are seeing is different and changing minorly constantly. Feel free to ignore this post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 Just now, 1816 said: I have been thinking about this theory a bit. Lot of you probably feel this way, maybe not who knows. But people always talk about how the models don't see this or that, it they're flailing around, or they're jumpy, or they're waffling. But maybe that's not the biggest problem. Maybe the reality is that minor things change that can't be modeled. A butterfly flaps its wings, a POD of orcas blowing water in the air, whatever. Those minor things are why 5 days out is impossible but one day out is OK. The models aren't changing based on seeing anything differently. What they are seeing is different and changing minorly constantly. Feel free to ignore this post lol. Good point. That's why we have ensembles. They provide that minor tweak, but there are only so many tweaks and members you can have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 44 minutes ago, lvnbraves said: I bought snowsuits for the kids after the last snowstorm, 2 or so years ago...it hasn't really snowed here since. I bought them big, but am guessing they may not fit...so as soon as they outrgrow them, the snowgates will open. You should probably run out and buy some swimming suits and pool toys for the kids. That may help with any spring snow storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, George Acton said: I recall guidance having and losing the 1996 storm only to come roaring back 24 hours before it hit. I realize there were more players with that one. Agree, until guidance sees the main piece of energy come on shore to the west, then they will hopefully get a good handle on it. https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf It didn’t lose the storm but they had to input some placement of srf low and pressures. Starts around page 23 on that link. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 45 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Still a bit outside Let's put it this way. Rather it be a near miss now, than be a hit now then a miss as the event is underway. Far less disappointing! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 And a little NAM shall lead them 😉 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) I know is super long range NAM, but the differences aloft subtle yet impactful from GFS 12Z at the same time. A little more negative digging in the Hudson Bay vortex, energy SW to NE in the midwest a bit stronger, less confluence in SE Canada, allows the surface low to be closer to the SE coast. Extrapolating that track I think it would make many happy in the NE. This is not too far from being something big. All that are needed are some minor adjustments. Let's see what the globals says later: Edited January 12 by TheComet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This is an excellent summary from WPC - recommended if not required reading, I'd say. Also their maps are drawn to support their text. Spoiler The models still agree in showing shortwave energy pivoting through the southern side of the broad mean trough serving to form a surface low near the East Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Consensus maintains an elongated area of low pressure along or just offshore the Southeast Coast by early Tuesday but then displays increasing east-west spread in the track going into Wednesday. These track differences reflect sensitivity to lower predictability detail issues with the upper shortwave. Among the 00Z/06Z cycle of guidance valid into Wednesday, the GEFS/ECens/CMCens means were all fairly close in track and timing near the middle of recent model spread and just offshore New England. The 06Z GFS was closest to the means and the new 12Z CMC has adjusted that way as well after being on the western side of the spread in the 00Z run. Latest UKMET runs have also represented the western side of the spread. On the other hand, recent ECMWF runs have strayed farther east with the surface low track due to faster timing for the northern part of the supporting shortwave. The 00Z ECMWF-initialized machine learning models generally followed a track favored by the ensemble means, though with most hinting at somewhat faster northward progression by early Wednesday. The new 12Z GFS/GEFS mean trended a little farther offshore. Most of the observed run-to-run variability is fairly typical for forecasts several days out in time but still leads to significant differences for precipitation amounts (and in some cases, type) along the East Coast. Preferences remains with an intermediate solution closest to the ensemble means. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 hours ago, PA road DAWG said: It’d looked like a powder keg pattern, but idk. We’ve all been in these type of situations before. I mean…it’s possible we are hitting the most southeastern envelope with these solutions we’re seeing, and it’ll eventually come back north/northwest. But the euro is extremely progressive. Euro and EPS are king, and they’re both Alarmingly progressive where I have the towel in hand. TBH The eps is definitely NW. Not a huge storm, but more qpf as we get closer and NW trends are the name of the game with these systems. Still could end up being a widespread moderate snowfall, with spots getting a little more if all goes right. Almost all storms recently have been juiced so I suspect to see qpf up as we get closer. After 15" last week that wouldn't be all that bad a start as of mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Anyone got the nasa model? What’s it sniffing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12z EPS. Interior PA. Ouch. 😭 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, TLChip said: Anyone got the nasa model? What’s it sniffing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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