Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) So - JD says this is similar... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/storm_summaries/event_reviews/2017/Southeast_EastCoast_WinterStorm_Jan2017.pdf?fbclid=IwAR330sqnpgkquoCb_8q306ub7DZa9DSXVsVJjwSnfOdJvT_1HDbwDlwQSV4 Edited January 12 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Rickrd said: God. Don’t know what my problem is today. Sry. It happens when all these runs are updating during the same time period. Back in the Accuweather forum days, I would post these maps at breakneck speed and make these same "previous run" posts 🙂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Snowadelphia said: For I-95 folks - I’m going out to buy rock salt today. Apologies in advance. Mine is still sitting on the porch from last year. Actually ice melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Here’s a peek at 6z… can’t save loops on Navy site… Heres the link if anyone wants it… https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2024011206&prod=prp&tau=102&set=All 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, cperry29 said: Here’s a peek at 6z… can’t save loops on Navy site… Heres the link if anyone wants it… https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2024011206&prod=prp&tau=102&set=All Yes - and don't worry if your PC/Phone or whatever initially rejects do to "security credentials" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, RobB said: It happens when all these runs are updating during the same time period. Back in the Accuweather forum days, I would post these maps at breakneck speed and make these same "previous run" posts 🙂 Same. I try to “double check” my work before anyone sees it 😂 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Yes - and don't worry if your PC/Phone or whatever initially rejects do to "security credentials" Yes! It’s not a user friendly site for sure, especially on a phone with fat fingers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 I've been looking at this one all wrong. Focused on the LP that comes out of the GOM and going out to sea. There's no support for that on the latest runs. GFS is saying that the shortwave below is forming a new low. You can see if on the pivotal loop - that kinks in the 522 and 525 height line goes negative and voila a storm is formed. This is textbook. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburger Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Remember windshield wiper mode is still in effect. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 (edited) 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: There's no support for that on the latest runs. What I mean by this is there's nothing at 850mb or 750mb that shows any organized system. Yeah, some thunderstorms, but nothing really bending the height lines. There's just no upper air support to capture or organize the energy at these levels, so it just continues with the flow. You do see what happens on the last frame of the 850 chart that the support from the aforementioned shortwave at 500mb and the longwave is coming in to capture some of that energy and send it north. Edited January 12 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: You do see what happens on the last frame of the 850 chart that the support from the aforementioned shortwave at 500mb and the longwave is coming in to capture some of that energy and send it north. But most of the energy at 850 in this frame (over the cape) is from the actual shortwave system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Note that we are very near the 3 day crap the bed time for the models. And i know that i am the king of oversimplification, but either we are in the midst of a minny pattern change , or we’re not. The long , long term pattern does not support what models are saying today. Just sayin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: But most of the energy at 850 in this frame (over the cape) is from the actual shortwave system. And in looking at the temp gradient at the surface and 925, any new storm would want to be around where theres the biggest difference, which is off of NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 NBM is still on board for a minor event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 (edited) 12z ukie still onboard As is CMC Edited January 12 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 27 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I've been looking at this one all wrong. Focused on the LP that comes out of the GOM and going out to sea. There's no support for that on the latest runs. GFS is saying that the shortwave below is forming a new low. You can see if on the pivotal loop - that kinks in the 522 and 525 height line goes negative and voila a storm is formed. This is textbook. And you can see that GFS shears out the trough creating two distinct s/w energies by the time it gets to the EC…we need that to stay consolidated, deep, and allowed to go negative… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 (edited) 3 minutes ago, telejunkie said: And you can see that GFS shears out the trough creating two distinct s/w energies by the time it gets to the EC…we need that to stay consolidated, deep, and allowed to go negative… Yes, for a big storm. Right now the CMC is trying to do that, thought the shortwave in the GFS analysis is handled differently, it still goes boom once it phases in. It just a little late on the CMC. But at least the CMC captures some of the southern energy. And there's time for that energy to consolidate. I didn't walk back the sampling yet, but I don't think anything is onshore. Edited January 12 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 (edited) Hr 114 comparisons of GFS vs. CMC. The secondary bundle (seen here in the southern Mississippi river valley region) seemingly acts as a tug, holding our primary s/w from going negative on the 12z GFS CMC doesn't emphasize the split bundle concept as much and trough can go negative faster...devil is in the detail Obvious differences over top at play here too...someone else can lean into that though Edited January 12 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 this was from Mt. Holly earlier today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 12 Moderators Share Posted January 12 (edited) 34 minutes ago, StretchCT said: And in looking at the temp gradient at the surface and 925, any new storm would want to be around where theres the biggest difference, which is off of NC And this is also where the WPC thinks it should be. Edited January 12 by StretchCT 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I have a feeling that after today's midwest storm departs, models will have a better handle (for better or for worse). I'll take solutions more serious beginning tomorrow 12Z (I feel like I'm channeling Snobal a bit with this post LOL) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, TheComet said: I have a feeling that after today's midwest storm departs, models will have a better handle (for better or for worse). I'll take solutions more serious beginning tomorrow 12Z (I feel like I'm channeling Snobal a bit with this post LOL) When you have a low pressure bomb like that going through first, especially with this crazy setup, tomorrow was always the focus day, and hate to say it, but with models it may be Sunday. Sure seems as if we have to know the final resting place of low bomb first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'm getting warm and fuzzy thinking about a beautiful bombogensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Recent Most are in the greens, a large number in the Dk Greens. Not a bad place at D3+ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Recent Most are in the greens, a large number in the Dk Greens. Not a bad place at D3+ 3-4 inches with ZERO Rain trailing behind it is a win in my book for Snow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Wondering if models are really struggling partly cuz of effects on very strong El Nino . Back in the day, a really strong storm like tonight’s would tend to wring out the atmosphere ( not always, but many times)for any storm following fairly close on its heels. Not this year! Or, i could just be full of shit, but i just obtained Rising Star status and have no idea wtf that means. Probably a quantity vs quality thang, but no pissing on my Wheaties. I shall carry that small victory right under my wings into Happy Hour. Carry on! 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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