Jan. 15-17th, 2024 | NE/MidAtl Winter Storm

[HVSNOWSTORM]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

We still need to get past that 100 hour barrier with any phasing. It's generally that lead time where we either lose the phased solutions, or the love affair becomes more intense.

 

Ukie thinks it's it's old self.

Previous run

She's baaaackkk 💥💥💥

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Ukie gfs combo please, extra large, not too warm.

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

Secondly, the deterministics and ensembles are still differing
significantly on a potential storm for midweek. We kept PoPs
only at chance at this time because there is a chance that we
could get whiffed.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Ukie gfs combo please, extra large, not too warm.

Oh and definitely extra juice with that order. Thank you.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

GYX

Hahaha every Met office anytime the Euro doesn't show a storm.

[Undertakerson2.0]

12 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

We still need to get past that 100 hour barrier with any phasing. It's generally that lead time where we either lose the phased solutions, or the love affair becomes more intense.

 

Ukie thinks it's it's old self.

Previous run

The Professor has been known to be a bit "grabby". His confusion is understandable. This one will test the mettle (as it were) 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

9 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Oh and definitely extra juice with that order. Thank you.

Guess I'm not as funny as I thought I was 👀

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Guess I'm not as funny as I thought I was 👀

The morning crowd sits on their hands a lot more than the prime time and after hours gang

[Snowadelphia]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The morning crowd sits on their hands a lot more than the prime time and after hours gang

Coffee is still warming. 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The morning crowd sits on their hands a lot more than the prime time and after hours gang

Hah yeah I know I know. Good to see you around it's been a while.

[Undertakerson2.0]

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Ooh, well dat would conflict with my racer storm theory. Oh well, no one’s on but you, so i don’t feel like a total tard. Except freakin UT reads through every post on every thread and will see. 

I do???

6 hours ago, Rickrd said:

Ya. He does tend to disappear and then marathon post which I love. 

Apparently I do

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

So great to have him back. Great at pattern recognition.

I used to be dead set against that PR stuff. It had to be beat into my head several times. I think 2015 Boston finally made me a true believer. 

6 hours ago, Rickrd said:

Honestly, who are we all kidding. This thing won’t be ironed out until Sunday night. Arctic air masses wreck havoc with models. We know and have seen this time and time again. So this last cocktail settled me back into reality. 

I think we'll know by Sat Noon - at least we'll see that those CF ideas seen the past 12 hours are phantom

6 hours ago, Rickrd said:

Damn Straight it is! 
did you get the photo he sent me? With your hands in your pocket doing who knows what?

Dare I? Hmmmm

6 hours ago, Rickrd said:

OMG! Just witnessed this!!!! Absolutely has not changed a bit!!!!

Faith restored!!

13 hours ago, MDBlueridge said:

"room over the top"

- @Undertakerson2.0

Retrograde of the ULL will, indeed, allow for that. Included that in my a.m. update to my Fb gang. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

On my Fb page (trying to remember how to "hide" this so it doesn't take up an entire page. 

 

Oh WOW - it worked! Maybe I'm not entirely senile yet. 

 

 

Spoiler

There will be storms and rumors of storms.

 

Tonight's event sets up what happens next week.

 

First it brings down very cold air in its wake - as it passes, it goes to SE Canada and sets up shop, unable to move along due to a downstream block in the N Atl. Because it is a gyre (vortex, cyclone, counter clockwise spin) in the upper levels, it will bring down nearly cross polar flow. n short, it will make it cold - actually influencing that nemesis, the Polar Vortex, to stretch over the E half of the CONUS.

 

It also works to feed "spokes" (bundles, parcels, pieces) of the Arctic Jet stream - towards the mid latitudes (the USA). Exactly how that unfolds (and how are we to know until the former system actually happens?) is KEY to the sensible weather outcome. If it's too close to the USA, then it would actually squash the storm after it (early week potential storm) and it would indeed miss. However, should it retrograde (go west) a bit and NOT sit right on top of us (which I believe it will), it will allow room for the trailing system to ride the US Coast -- it can also feed spokes of energy (jet streaks) that can enhance the entire structure of the storm (adding energy helps the storms grow up, as it were).

 

Local TV outlets will tell you what the models show. I try to explain the set up and how/why things may happen. I am looking at this and then referring to my past recollections to arrive at a reasonable prediction. And overnight models are less sold on the storm idea - yet the camp is split between storm or no storm Yet models run all day long and they also run hundreds of "ensembles" - and the most recent ones this morning are in favor of a strong mostly all snow storm.

With all that said, and considering all factors (models, teleconnections, historical analogs, initial condition, and the pattern we've been in for weeks now), I say "storm on". A late Monday timing event from South to North. This should be all snow for central zones of PA, some mixing towards the coast is likely but far less than past events due to cold air already being entrenched quite robustly thanks to our Friday night event and its effect after it sets up in SE Canada.

 

Remember that downstream paths are "blocked" - another reason I don't believe this misses. So the system will not be as swift as previous ones. That also means we can nudge the snow v. rain line (from previous events) further south and east. Thus, areas like Baltimore, DC, Phila, et al. likely see accumulations of snow.

 

Numbers are way too early to discuss save to say that adding 2-3" to what the last event brought - certainly attainable. Impact probably moderate and could be major if all things meld correctly ( a dubious proposition right now, yet worthy of monitoring)

 

So plan for the worst, hope for the best - I say we go for a significant impact winter storm early next week - irrespective of what the models strictly say.

 

Edited January 12 by Undertakerson2.0

[HVSNOWSTORM]

11 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

On my Fb page (trying to remember how to "hide" this so it doesn't take up an entire page. 

 

Oh WOW - it worked! Maybe I'm not entirely senile yet. 

 

 

  Hide contents

There will be storms and rumors of storms.

 

Tonight's event sets up what happens next week.

 

First it brings down very cold air in its wake - as it passes, it goes to SE Canada and sets up shop, unable to move along due to a downstream block in the N Atl. Because it is a gyre (vortex, cyclone, counter clockwise spin) in the upper levels, it will bring down nearly cross polar flow. n short, it will make it cold - actually influencing that nemesis, the Polar Vortex, to stretch over the E half of the CONUS.

 

It also works to feed "spokes" (bundles, parcels, pieces) of the Arctic Jet stream - towards the mid latitudes (the USA). Exactly how that unfolds (and how are we to know until the former system actually happens?) is KEY to the sensible weather outcome. If it's too close to the USA, then it would actually squash the storm after it (early week potential storm) and it would indeed miss. However, should it retrograde (go west) a bit and NOT sit right on top of us (which I believe it will), it will allow room for the trailing system to ride the US Coast -- it can also feed spokes of energy (jet streaks) that can enhance the entire structure of the storm (adding energy helps the storms grow up, as it were).

 

Local TV outlets will tell you what the models show. I try to explain the set up and how/why things may happen. I am looking at this and then referring to my past recollections to arrive at a reasonable prediction. And overnight models are less sold on the storm idea - yet the camp is split between storm or no storm Yet models run all day long and they also run hundreds of "ensembles" - and the most recent ones this morning are in favor of a strong mostly all snow storm.

With all that said, and considering all factors (models, teleconnections, historical analogs, initial condition, and the pattern we've been in for weeks now), I say "storm on". A late Monday timing event from South to North. This should be all snow for central zones of PA, some mixing towards the coast is likely but far less than past events due to cold air already being entrenched quite robustly thanks to our Friday night event and its effect after it sets up in SE Canada.

 

Remember that downstream paths are "blocked" - another reason I don't believe this misses. So the system will not be as swift as previous ones. That also means we can nudge the snow v. rain line (from previous events) further south and east. Thus, areas like Baltimore, DC, Phila, et al. likely see accumulations of snow.

 

Numbers are way too early to discuss save to say that adding 2-3" to what the last event brought - certainly attainable. Impact probably moderate and could be major if all things meld correctly ( a dubious proposition right now, yet worthy of monitoring)

 

So plan for the worst, hope for the best - I say we go for a significant impact winter storm early next week - irrespective of what the models strictly say.

 

" Wars and rumors of wars" - Jesus Christ 🙏 

😉

[Undertakerson2.0]

The heights in the N Atl will certainly bottle things up "over top".

The progression of said blocking seems to be retrograde west - do you concur? 

[1816]

Nws Blacksburg. I know there's still the possibility that the system gets booted ots but with the way humongous storms have been climbing the coast every few days for weeks on end, I'm not betting against it happening again. 

Focusing on Tuesday specifically, recent models remain
agreeable with showing shortwave energy pivoting through the
southern side of the broad and deep upper level mid CONUS trof
and tapping some Gulf and Atlantic moisture and serving to form
a surface low near the East Coast Tuesday into Wednesday.
12/18Z and now the 00Z/06Z model guidance generally shows low
pressure developing near the Southeast Coast by early Tuesday,
but with some spread in the formation/track that is amplified by
the fact that even relatively small differences would have
considerable sensible weather differences. In other words, the
Low which develops along the coast will have just as much chance
to move off shore and miss us altogether as it does to provide
us with a measurable snow event...a coin-flip of sorts. If
anything can be said, we are not dealing with a p-type issue
(anything that falls would be snow), we are dealing with a storm
track challenge...so stay tuned.

If there is any consolation for the folks that want to see snow
(especially those in the piedmont), this will probably be the
best chance so far this winter season. As for the mountains,
even if the storm track goes east, the arctic airmass spilling
over the mountains will likely produce some light accumulation
of snow anyway, just not as much compared to what we would get
if we tapped an Atlantic feed of moisture.

[Undertakerson2.0]

 with the way humongous storms have been climbing the coast every few days for weeks on end, I'm not betting against it happening again. 

^^ This

[Squepp]

16 hours ago, 1816 said:

To chicago

 

15 hours ago, LUCC said:

First?

 

15 hours ago, TLChip said:

2016… poor PARD. Someone’s always looking in on someone else. 
 

Afiak that is a rumor, suppression can cause northerners depression though.  

WEST!

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

This illustrates rather nicely how close this is for the hook up between the energy from the ULL and that of the coastal. 

 

[LUCC]

No 21-22 thread yet? 👀

Edited January 12 by LUCC

[Undertakerson2.0]

I'm not tryina say this is Jonas.

However, did we not go through something similar with that one? 

After being on board, Euro sent the energy out to Bermuda. The Euro never came back to correction until AFTER the NAMbino weighed in. 

The GFs strayed shorter than Euro but did stray. It spent two cycles out of synch - came back sooner than Euro did 

These days, I used the Baby GG more over the NAM. At 00z and 06z, it (RDPS) handles the 500mb level the same as the GFS did at 6. 

We are on track here, been down this road before. No need to get unsteady or nervous. 

Edited January 12 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, LUCC said:

No 19-20th thread yet? 👀

I nearly asked that yesterday. I've been busy past couple or I would have started one. Could be 1987 all over again 😉 

[LUCC]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I nearly asked that yesterday. I've been busy past couple or I would have started one. Could be 1987 all over again 😉 

AW and TWC are both kind of excited about it. 🤔

[Undertakerson2.0]

Past 36 hours of GEFS. 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

[Undertakerson2.0]

3 minutes ago, LUCC said:

AW and TWC are both kind of excited about it. 🤔

As of now, we have too many systems to resolve first. It's an odd set up and the teles are almost completing their transition to unfavorable for storm. We'll have to watch certainly - the pattern being the pattern and all.