Rickrd Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) Euro has corrected west on 500 MB. but still misses the phase. It’s fine. Will go at it again tomorrow Edited January 12 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: For some reason this storm reminded me of an old nugget from an all-time legend from prior, WeatherJunkie, that he schooled me on. Southern based systems just breath warmer. I know, no shit , but he meant vs. non southern based storms like this one. So warmth is more prevalent, and can more easily overwhelm without a great high or perfect track. Inknow i am oversimplifying , but a perfect illustration is a gulf storm in winter on perfect , perfect track, without cold air source still gonna be rain I miss the Junk Man. That old snowthrower luber always had a great way of explaining things. 5 hours ago, JDClapper said: Do we care what ICON says? Cuz, we probably don't want to ... just sayin 😞 I know I never do. I'd rather follow the NAV and compensate for the bias. That danged Nazi model - just don't trust it one bit. 4 hours ago, Penn State said: Where did that 992 come from??? It just sprang right outta nowhere. Jet streak (from the AJ I believe) enters the picture at just the right time. That's a very tenuous set up. 4 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Remember UT stuff he’s been saying. That D-Nozzle? Who listens to what his senile mind come up with.... Oh, wait... 4 hours ago, Rickrd said: You think I would have mellowed after 2 years off! Word on the street is the Snobal is selling gummies now. He has a nice Indica based solution to your problem. 4 hours ago, NEPAsnow said: CMC with back to back storms I'm still waiting for Druncle GG to score a coup - rusted pliers at the ready in case it stumbles onto a correct solution 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12 Just at quick glance it looks as though there is too much pressing down from the large ULL around the hudson bay for this one now. Also definitely misses any phase potential and the system afterward may become more a miller b system. Still far out but it ain't looking as clean as it once was, funny how the euro and gfs/cmc flip flopped here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WPC discussion - mentions how uncertain this whole affair is. And as Dr. Rick said, this not our past snow event that even he could figure out. We definitely need to see what is to become of today's system (which ultimately becomes the large ULL that can make or break this system) If our ULL is too South and strongsided, it will crush (squish, squelch, shunt - chose your word) the upper level flow - suppression depression. If our ULL doesn't bleed a spoke into the approaching long wave - a weak solution of NADS. Only when it sits pretty and lends a helping hand once the coastal forms - will it pay off. If the 12z suite does not move in a large way, back to the "preferred" solution, this may have slipped through our figurative hands. As Poc and I discussed in a PM, the past snow was plenty 'nuff for us - we really don't want to deal with any more - not just yet anyway. I'm ok with waiting fort the MJO to hit Ph7 at amplitude in early Feb - get a week or two of blockbusters, then --fishing weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertop Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 hours ago, JDClapper said: Do we care what ICON says? Cuz, we probably don't want to ... just sayin 😞 I suddenly care about the ICON again after its 6z run 😂 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Is it too late to apologize to Ike? He managed to bleed in the AJ energy from the ULL at the precise moment and 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Is it too late to apologize to Ike? He managed to bleed in the AJ energy from the ULL at the precise moment and Previously he held back the long wave too long and no phase could happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) 6z GFS is not as pushy with the ULL confluence. Hr 96 pulling back NW. Can it maintain? Looking much better than 00z Edited January 12 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12 Some really wide spreads here between models here for only being about 5 days out. You can see the further west the ULL the better the situation is. It does seem the Euro is correcting west with time so I wonder if there will be a balance of the models coming up here where we get a middle solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Definitely keeping the lead vortmax "tighter" and that is HUGE to the outcome - no confluence pushing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It's a solid hit! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12 I will say the one thing that keeps me from saying it is nope is the models tend weaken the NAO region too rapidly which would lead to a more Euro like solution versus pushing the ULL further west. Lets see what happens when this system gets going tonight into tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12 Was waiting for the 6z gfs to play out and what an interesting solution. For future talk it looks like we may have been a little too quick with 19th-20th and may be around the 21st-22nd would be something to watch as it looks like the pattern tries to have a bit of a break and reload as we go into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Was waiting for the 6z gfs to play out and what an interesting solution. For future talk it looks like we may have been a little too quick with 19th-20th and may be around the 21st-22nd would be something to watch as it looks like the pattern tries to have a bit of a break and reload as we go into February. Interestingly - this analog appears on the latest CIPS (at #2). For those who don't remember, there was another storm about 3 days later and all told amounted to us sitting on well over a foot and a half of snow (some areas over TWO feet) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12 Author Admin Share Posted January 12 I was looking for a right down the middle gif, as a blend of the EC and GFS might be prudent, but then I saw this gif, and it might be more appropriate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) Best GEFS run yet. Last 4 runs to see snow placement. Edited January 12 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Sterling says we don’t know.cause the models told us so. Quote Next week will bring the coldest air mass of the season to the region. Below freezing high temperatures have not been observed in Washington, D.C. since late December 2022. Based on the latest ensemble model guidance, a number of locations will likely struggle to escape the upper 20s to mid 30s during this period. Given the arctic air mass in place, the biggest question mark is whether any disturbance can interact with this cold air to produce widespread snow. Uncertainty is quite high as noted by the poor run-to-run continuity as well as vast differences between model solutions. Even global ensemble means vary with the development of a coastal low in terms of strength and placement. Based on tracking the wave of interest, it is currently within a high-latitude block in far northwestern Canada. Given these are notoriously plagued by low predictability, the forecast uncertainty is not too surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GEFS trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GEFS clearly consolidating near the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 12 Meteorologist Share Posted January 12 This looks like one of those storms where we may start out as some rain and as the storm gets going the cold funnels in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 IMBY From rhe weather channel . This seems to change every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 12 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 12 5 hours ago, Rickrd said: HOLY SHIT UKMET! And 10:1 ratios! That’s what I’m talking about! More of this on the modeling, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12 Author Admin Share Posted January 12 We still need to get past that 100 hour barrier with any phasing. It's generally that lead time where we either lose the phased solutions, or the love affair becomes more intense. Ukie thinks it's it's old self. Previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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