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Jan. 15-17th, 2024 | NE/MidAtl Winter Storm


MaineJay

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2 minutes ago, Penn State said:

GFS.. Not bad! 

floop-gfs-2024011112.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif.64c78fad1589e2e2e4cefed685368fed.gif

Zooming in on the northeast, looks like ice mixing in with snow for Long Island.

ARound 7 for LI but not sure how the ice will affect that total

 

image.gif.a7161d776a1a0de3b56f516ab1026a20.gif

 

image.thumb.png.0404cb551a6ec6c518e73122ec17f62a.png

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Seems like a pretty long duration event too.. but maybe that's just early modeling. Usually end up being quicker, or so that's how it seems. 

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Just now, Rickrd said:

and.... as I look at the calendar and its only Thursday for a Tuesday storm....

The last few years we've mostly had to be 7 days out or more to get runs like this. Having a run at 5 days out is more encouraging.

Plus this is the stage where precip amounts are often low. Seems to me that a tap into GOM should produce a little better.

We'll see lots of waffling, but the chances of catching lightning in a bottle seem a little higher with this one than many.

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25 minutes ago, clm said:

Zooming in on the northeast, looks like ice mixing in with snow for Long Island.

ARound 7 for LI but not sure how the ice will affect that total

 

image.gif.a7161d776a1a0de3b56f516ab1026a20.gif

 

image.thumb.png.0404cb551a6ec6c518e73122ec17f62a.png

More digital snow.. no shoveling required….

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2 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Got this from another site... 12Z UKMET

NOTE: This is not Kuchera! 💣

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

You must use Kuchera.  How do you think Jack Nicholson froze in the snow at the hotel?  He did not use the Kuchera ratio and underestimated the snow totals.

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Weather.gov on the outs for no or little snow on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  No mention of any accumulation or even rain.  

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33

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I can't post the image at the moment.. but look at the Ukie snow map.. Nice hit for the interior! 

Edit: @Rickrd beat me to it! 

Edited by Penn State
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12 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

image.thumb.png.021938d1dbd26e3192fc0bfa1c740a99.png

That's the sort of low pressure track I'm looking for to bring snow to my backyard. Lock it in.

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