Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just going off of Ewall MREF output, the GFS is "seeing" a few potential out right bombs in the mix. RN there are ~5 such depictions within the set. Essentially, the slower the evolution, the stronger and "bombier" the outcome. Here's the link - look from Hr 120-144 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Just going off of Ewall MREF output, the GFS is "seeing" a few potential out right bombs in the mix. RN there are ~5 such depictions within the set. Essentially, the slower the evolution, the stronger and "bombier" the outcome. Here's the link - look from Hr 120-144 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html Been so long since I used Eyewall. Re bookmarking. I dig it for its usefulness and nostalgia. Edited January 11 by RobB 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 11 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 11 Ukie was well west at 00z.. Just another solution, but maybe indicating there's still room to the west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Penn State said: Ukie was well west at 00z.. Just another solution, but maybe indicating there's still room to the west? Prior to that run the UK held back so much energy in the US SW that WPC tossed it entirely in their decision makking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 hours ago, clm said: GFS showing spotty totals on Long Island. Very weird map as 0 for most of the area with only a few spots getting 4 or so. Must be those high elevations in LI LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 11 Admin Share Posted January 11 11 hours ago, mikered30 said: I am surprised that an imposter snobol hasn't made an account yet and stared typing like this Don't tempt us, we have all thought about it.... 10 hours ago, StretchCT said: No no no... you'll have to be surprised. 6 hours ago, Rickrd said: lol. Ya, I can see that. But SNOBAL was indeed a real dude back in the day when a lot of us were in the Accuweather forums. From what I remember, with every storm he was the anti-storm guy. People were just out to post thoughts 5,6,7 days out and he would come in and throw a 1 liner in there why it wasn’t happening and really offer no explanation. It became hysterical through time and the SNOBAL factor was born. Sometimes I wonder if SNOBAL was one of the Administrators for the AccuWx Forums who was there to lighten the mood when needed. 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 11 Admin Share Posted January 11 Regarding this potential, I would assert that it is likely one of the best the coast has experienced in years. As previously mentioned, my focus lies in pattern recognition, and I believe that this forecasted influx of Arctic Air is poised to create the conditions for a significant winter weather event along the I-95 Region. While small-scale weather events can sometimes override overall pattern recognition, the current outlook appears favorable for a substantial impact along the Eastern Seaboard. My primary concern at the moment is the possibility of suppression, although I do not currently observe indications of that either. With the intrusion of Arctic Air and the presence of an active Southern Stream, the chances of a robust storm intensify. The development of baroclinicity resulting from the temperature gradient sets the stage for the potential formation of a powerful storm. Additionally, the infiltration of cold air seems notably robust. Given this pattern setup, I would argue that the I-95 Corridor could find itself contending with significant winter weather events. Of course, it's important to note that there is still a long way to go in monitoring and understanding these developments. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro gfs cmc ensembles snow placement: generally seem to favor inland areas, which seems odd to me but I take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 41 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Don't tempt us, we have all thought about it.... Sometimes I wonder if SNOBAL was one of the Administrators for the AccuWx Forums who was there to lighten the mood when needed. It's possible - the forums could get a bit heated at times and WeatherMatrix would have to come in to calm everything down. The doom and gloomers, as well as the NIMBYs, were really prevalent then. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS holding that rain/snow line north of LI giving us rain. I can't compare Euro as I do not have plus for the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Canadian model showing 2 to 4 for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucikaroo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 hours ago, eddygeeme said: With the way there winter has been I'm sure the Delmarva folks would take their 1-2 inch snow and run. I watched Bernie video and he said this will be a northeast storm higher up not for us on shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, clm said: Canadian model showing 2 to 4 for Long Island Honestly, I just want to take my 5 y/o sledding for the first time in 2 years and show my 17 month old what snow looks like. I’ll take those 2.5 inches in a heart beat. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 11 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 11 I know it's the long-range NAM.. So throw it out if you wish. However, it looks like for the time stamp, that it's holding the energy back in the SW. I don't know how this plays into the slower vs. faster conversation, and how that impacts the potential for a storm. However.. it looks like the more progressive solutions shoot that energy east a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucikaroo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Did anyone see a storm showing up for 17-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Bucikaroo said: Did anyone see a storm showing up for 17-19 For what area? GFS shows some stray snow in some areas, but does not look to be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 34 minutes ago, Bucikaroo said: Did anyone see a storm showing up for 17-19 We have some timing and wave issues to hone in on for this general timeframe. I think we’ll know a lot more by tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 (edited) 3 hours ago, RobB said: Been so long since I used Eyewall. Re bookmarking. I dig it for its usefulness and nostalgia. PSU's e-wall and NCEP models page were the way to view models when I was originally dipping my toes in the weather world...remember when IWM came along with snowfall output and was a game changer. Now we're really spoiled with Pivotal and TT Let's see what 12z runs bring us....🤞 Edited January 11 by telejunkie 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, telejunkie said: PSU's e-wall and NCEP models page were the way to view models when I was originally dipping my toes in the weather world originally...remember when IWM came along with snowfall output and was a game changer. Let's see what 12z runs bring us....🤞 Boom diggity. Pretty much the same with me.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 11 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 11 ICON remains progressive.. comes together too late for widespread impacts further south. NE looks to do well on this particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS may have the makings of a varsity athlete 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 11 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 11 Oh man.. GFS does consolidate it there at hour 123! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 11 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 11 GFS.. Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Nope, not at all! A very uniform 4-7" from I-99 to east of I-95. Ratios helping inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 Beautiful look on GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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