clm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, ionizer said: listen, i used to like a good snoball comment in a thread just like the rest of you, but this obsession about posting his old comments and referring to him ad nauseam is getting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) 0z GFS improved for an East Coast hit but not quite there yet. Fun to watch. Edited January 11 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) Canadian is also better but misses phase and slides out and up and nicks NE. But also ever changing model run to run. Close but no cigar this run. Edited January 11 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 32 minutes ago, Rickrd said: 0z GFS improved for an East Coast hit but not quite there yet. Fun to watch. With the way there winter has been I'm sure the Delmarva folks would take their 1-2 inch snow and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, Rickrd said: Canadian is also better but misses phase and slides out and up and nicks NE. But also ever changing model run to run. Close but no cigar this run. What is with that banding from E. WV thru Central VA down to NC. Is that back end wrap around banding. Just odd the model would pick up on that feature kinda far out. Would be interesting if there is some sort of clear wrap around with this storm. Has been a minute since we had one of those type of wrap around lows at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, eddygeeme said: What is with that banding from E. WV thru Central VA down to NC. Is that back end wrap around banding. Just odd the model would pick up on that feature kinda far out. Would be interesting if there is some sort of clear wrap around with this storm. Has been a minute since we had one of those type of wrap around lows at the coast. Not really focusing on precip field at this point. That will fill in during later runs. Right now focused on possible tracks and ironing out LP placement which models are obviously having a difficult time sorting out. Stay tuned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 0z Euro. Kuchera. South and East this run. Nice hit for SE PA, DE, NYC, LI and SE NE. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Rickrd said: 0z Euro. Kuchera. South and East this run. Nice hit for SE PA, DE, NYC, LI and SE NE. Stay tuned. Wouldn't take more than a 25-35mi shift west/north or even just a slightly stronger storm to make this an entire east coast Snow Storm. Things should clear up after the cutter system passes thru the Midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Not really focusing on precip field at this point. That will fill in during later runs. Right now focused on possible tracks and ironing out LP placement which models are obviously having a difficult time sorting out. Stay tuned. Oh I know, just my curiosity if that was a possible wrap around signature. Edited January 11 by eddygeeme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 hours ago, 1816 said: Perhaps but he's an unofficial weather mascot who's memory lives on even though no one has heard from him in years. Put some respect on snowbal name. Snobal is our version of an entity named Moe at a campus/community radio station that I used to volunteer at, off and on in Binghamton, NY between the 1990s and 2010s. No one could quite explain who “Moe” was, he just was sort of a quasi- mythical figure. Snobal could very well be our Moe, and he could very well be around in 2034, 2044, etc., by which time I could be in purgatory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, eddygeeme said: Oh I know, just my curiosity if that was a possible wrap around signature. Ya. Understand. Not sure why at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, SnowloverSid said: Snobal is our version of an entity named Moe at a campus/community radio station that I used to volunteer at, off and on in Binghamton, NY between the 1990s and 2010s. No one could quite explain who “Moe” was, he just was sort of a quasi- mythical figure. Snobal could very well be our Moe, and he could very well be around in 2034, 2044, etc., by which time I could be in purgatory. lol. Ya, I can see that. But SNOBAL was indeed a real dude back in the day when a lot of us were in the Accuweather forums. From what I remember, with every storm he was the anti-storm guy. People were just out to post thoughts 5,6,7 days out and he would come in and throw a 1 liner in there why it wasn’t happening and really offer no explanation. It became hysterical through time and the SNOBAL factor was born. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Uh ohhhh. Euro gaining the “she gone” mentality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 41 minutes ago, Rickrd said: lol. Ya, I can see that. But SNOBAL was indeed a real dude back in the day when a lot of us were in the Accuweather forums. From what I remember, with every storm he was the anti-storm guy. People were just out to post thoughts 5,6,7 days out and he would come in and throw a 1 liner in there why it wasn’t happening and really offer no explanation. It became hysterical through time and the SNOBAL factor was born. Yup that's what I remember he was always the nah it's not gonna work guy from back in the day. I miss those old AccuWeather days in the early 2010s. We just happened to get some crazy blizzards especially in thd Central mid Atlantic. I grew fond of "Accu Rayno" videos tracking those storms back then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I consider myself to be an extremely lucky guy. Most of the great things in my life kinda happened "by accident" I'm not this luck though (am I?) Signed: Born Again Snow Hater 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Serious note or two The systems that come by while a huge UL Gyre is in SE Canada - the majority of the gang always fret the solutions that push storm track S of Mason Dixon Said UL monster gyres are, historically, as difficult for the models as are HLB (high latitude blocks) . The reason that I see is because they just don't "know" what to do with the energy bleeding off said ULL. Does that energy get involved, when does it get involved, to what extent does it get involved - ALL these have major impact on track This is kind of shaping up to be a mini version of PDII (2/2003) with double barreled weak low pressures along the same stalled boundary. The big difference between that and this is that PDII had a massive blocking H in SE Canada - not an "acting block" ULL. (both brought serious cold into the equation) Our old adage of "must clear out the prior system before taking Op solutions seriously" applies strongly here. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Good old GFS 6z provides excellent illustration to my point about ULL involvement. It just came in gangbusters for the non coastal regions and up into NE - and that is because the "over top" ULL gets heavily involved. To me, this solution is not too unlike the 00z from 1/9Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I "like" the CIPS #1 analog for this one (1/1994). Because that analog also has a January date. The ones that don't match month to month don't seem to pan out as often. Also b/c 1994 was VERY cold - the kind of deep cold we'll see next week (actually even deeper and longer duration) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: I "like" the CIPS #1 analog for this one (1/1994). Because that analog also has a January date. The ones that don't match month to month don't seem to pan out as often. Also b/c 1994 was VERY cold - the kind of deep cold we'll see next week (actually even deeper and longer duration) And it's not difficult to see the snowfall pattern match to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 "Stephy" continues to hold strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The Chairman (G"MAO", aka NASA model) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Gfs finally caves to a storm idea. Euro still there but def east of last few runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 11 Author Admin Share Posted January 11 GEFS trend over the last 4 runs. Just please, no more rain. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 11 Author Admin Share Posted January 11 Ensembles with spread H5. When you see the spread on either side of the trof base, it screams phase uncertainty. Deterministics are going to bounce around for another day or two at least. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Fwiw. The geps also with the big shift towards a strong storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now