RobB Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, LUCC said: It's bad when I was somewhat happy to at least see flakes falling 4 times already this winter, biggest accum was a T. Good luck!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 10 Moderators Share Posted January 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslanGurlllll Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, clm said: Don't have pivotal plus so can't see 6Z run, but 0Z Euro says not much for Long Island. Imma need you to 🤫 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 10 Moderators Share Posted January 10 This will do track wise 850s look good 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS showing spotty totals on Long Island. Very weird map as 0 for most of the area with only a few spots getting 4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: This will do track wise 850s look good The more south it stays the more snow Long Island will get. Last weekend the storm was a bit more north and the warmer air went over Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, MDBlueridge said: I once, was Nator's most ardent supporter. Was a terrific track model. But has not been good or consistent for many moons. Which model has remained steady or improved? I would say none. They've all gone downhill but I suspect the atmosphere behaves differently now than it did when these were programmed. Due to significant ocean temp differences that just aren't going away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Op snowdepth on the lower end of eps members thought of this subject, forninterior PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Op snowdepth on the lower end of eps members thought of this subject, forninterior PA. If the black one is the main run, what are the others representing? Are they at different times, i.e. 0z, 6z, etc...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Goddamn! The Signal is strong baby 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I just watched Bernie's video today and he believes the deeper Euro will come to fruition over the flatter GFS. However, he also thinks the Euro will bring snow more to the interior and the mountains. I just don't understand how such a serious threat of snow for the coast can suddenly be dismissed yet again. FWIW, the teachers I support are as desperate for a snow day as much as the kids. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, 1816 said: Which model has remained steady or improved? I would say none. They've all gone downhill but I suspect the atmosphere behaves differently now than it did when these were programmed. Due to significant ocean temp differences that just aren't going away. I'm not qualified to judge improved vs downhill but expectations might be greater than say 10 years ago. My unscientific assessment of the performance of various models for last weekend's storm was they were pretty good overall. A single storm is a small sample size however. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 LMAO! Look at GFS 18z compared to 12z! WTF?!! GAME ON! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 19 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: I just watched Bernie's video today and he believes the deeper Euro will come to fruition over the flatter GFS. However, he also thinks the Euro will bring snow more to the interior and the mountains. I just don't understand how such a serious threat of snow for the coast can suddenly be dismissed yet again. FWIW, the teachers I support are as desperate for a snow day as much as the kids. I think the biggest problem is that since anything can happen in weather, it could very well happen that it moves up north and dumps rain rather than snow. Not saying it will but being this far out, we've seen it many times where the storm can strengthen and deliver more snow or become a wimp and dump rain on us. This is why I keep telling family that I can't tell them what will happen until just before it comes. And even then it could change midstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z GFS comparison to earlier 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, BossaNova said: I'm not qualified to judge improved vs downhill but expectations might be greater than say 10 years ago. My unscientific assessment of the performance of various models for last weekend's storm was they were pretty good overall. A single storm is a small sample size however. NAM is always good for a laugh more than 3:days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Rickrd said: LMAO! Look at GFS 18z compared to 12z! WTF?!! GAME ON! Like I said before. I believe GFS was on the Mitchell report 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 10 Moderators Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: I just watched Bernie's video today and he believes the deeper Euro will come to fruition over the flatter GFS. However, he also thinks the Euro will bring snow more to the interior and the mountains. I just don't understand how such a serious threat of snow for the coast can suddenly be dismissed yet again. FWIW, the teachers I support are as desperate for a snow day as much as the kids. In my limited experience, it appears that for a widespread coastal snowfall (ie I-95 special), you need a Miller A type storm where the low is offshore by the time it reaches OBX. If the low doesn't move offshore til Chesapeake or later, it is too close to the shore and it floods the coast with warmth from the ocean without having access to cold air from up north. If it is further offshore, it can wrap some cold air in all the way to the coast. Also, the tracks that stay close to the shore deliver a large dry slot on the backside of the storm in the SW quadrant, so any wraparound cold air there is wasted. Furthermore, it has more time to deepen (bombogenesis) if it can get offshore earlier. Too often this doesn't occur til it gets too far north to help us out. The trick is to keep the low offshore without it escaping OTS. That unfortunately doesn't happen very often (but when it does it makes for a memorable event). Alternatively, if you can get a phase between the northern and southern streams with appropriate blocking (a la Feb 2010), you can get a nice storm for the snow-starved. However, I think those are even more rare than Miller A setups. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, BossaNova said: I'm not qualified to judge improved vs downhill but expectations might be greater than say 10 years ago. My unscientific assessment of the performance of various models for last weekend's storm was they were pretty good overall. A single storm is a small sample size however. True but those have go be the easiest kind of storms to judge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, Tater said: In my limited experience, it appears that for a widespread coastal snowfall (ie I-95 special), you need a Miller A type storm where the low is offshore by the time it reaches OBX. If the low doesn't move offshore til Chesapeake or later, it is too close to the shore and it floods the coast with warmth from the ocean without having access to cold air from up north. If it is further offshore, it can wrap some cold air in all the way to the coast. Also, the tracks that stay close to the shore deliver a large dry slot on the backside of the storm in the SW quadrant, so any wraparound cold air there is wasted. Furthermore, it has more time to deepen (bombogenesis) if it can get offshore earlier. Too often this doesn't occur til it gets too far north to help us out. The trick is to keep the low offshore without it escaping OTS. That unfortunately doesn't happen very often (but when it does it makes for a memorable event). Alternatively, if you can get a phase between the northern and southern streams with appropriate blocking (a la Feb 2010), you can get a nice storm for the snow-starved. However, I think those are even more rare than Miller A setups. By OBX, you mean the Outer Banks? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, clm said: If the black one is the main run, what are the others representing? Are they at different times, i.e. 0z, 6z, etc...? The other lines on that chart are the individual ensemble members. Theres definitely a strong cluster showing a moderate hit for the interiorm there is also a cluster showing a passing graze or miss. Got a quarter handy so we can figure this out once and for all? 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: The other lines on that chart are the individual ensemble members. Theres definitely a strong cluster showing a moderate hit for the interiorm there is also a cluster showing a passing graze or miss. Got a quarter handy so we can figure this out once and for all? 😄 Due to inflation we may need two quarters 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 32 minutes ago, Tater said: In my limited experience, it appears that for a widespread coastal snowfall (ie I-95 special), you need a Miller A type storm where the low is offshore by the time it reaches OBX. If the low doesn't move offshore til Chesapeake or later, it is too close to the shore and it floods the coast with warmth from the ocean without having access to cold air from up north. If it is further offshore, it can wrap some cold air in all the way to the coast. Also, the tracks that stay close to the shore deliver a large dry slot on the backside of the storm in the SW quadrant, so any wraparound cold air there is wasted. Furthermore, it has more time to deepen (bombogenesis) if it can get offshore earlier. Too often this doesn't occur til it gets too far north to help us out. The trick is to keep the low offshore without it escaping OTS. That unfortunately doesn't happen very often (but when it does it makes for a memorable event). Alternatively, if you can get a phase between the northern and southern streams with appropriate blocking (a la Feb 2010), you can get a nice storm for the snow-starved. However, I think those are even more rare than Miller A setups. Yes. True normal with your basic HP to the north. But with arctic air plunging into the equation, this is a different puppy. Models do not know how to deal with arctic air as well in long to medium range. GFS is especially notorious for just running things off shore to the warmth. Known bias I believe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Crazy differences amongst the eps and gefs. Vastly different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Rickrd said: Yes. True normal with your basic HP to the north. But with arctic air plunging into the equation, this is a different puppy. Models do not know how to deal with arctic air as well in long to medium range. GFS is especially notorious for just running things off shore to the warmth. Known bias I believe. ^THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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