Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Speaking of machine learning models - the past 2 runs of Stephy (Graph) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, LiveWire_13 said: I just watched Bernie's video today and he believes the deeper Euro will come to fruition over the flatter GFS. However, he also thinks the Euro will bring snow more to the interior and the mountains. I just don't understand how such a serious threat of snow for the coast can suddenly be dismissed yet again. FWIW, the teachers I support are as desperate for a snow day as much as the kids. If I had to bet my 401k on it, I'd go with the interior as well. 🤷 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 10 Moderators Share Posted January 10 (edited) AIFS (ECMWF AI model) is inland Pangu is tucked Fourcast is out to sea, weak FuXI is in between, just outside the benchmark but at least stronger. Graph is pretty good This is the op Edited January 10 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 10 Moderators Share Posted January 10 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Yes. True normal with your basic HP to the north. But with arctic air plunging into the equation, this is a different puppy. Models do not know how to deal with arctic air as well in long to medium range. GFS is especially notorious for just running things off shore to the warmth. Known bias I believe. Well, I'll defer to those of you with more experience. I've only been watching weather closely for ~5 years (found Disco during Hurricane Dorian), which has been a bad run of winter weather. My memory is also colored by the storms (and lack thereof) that have effected my area. I only remember 3 snowfalls here greater than 12" in 25 years, two of which occurred in 2009-2010 (it's possible one occurred since then that I don't remember). The problem with cold air (in the limited time I've been watching is that it either needs a near-perfect phase or else we end up with suppression. Otherwise, maybe we get NADS. Again, I haven't seen that much and know even less, so I'll defer to y'all. I just know I get disappointed when I see yet another storm with a projected low too far north (like the Miller A we just had that went through the Chesapeake and never bombed out). There's always a chance the next one works out, just like there's a chance that someone hands me the winning lottery ticket. Edit: I realize that this might sound like bittercasting, though it is not intended as such. I'm just trying to explain why it's rare for widespread snow events near the coast and in the southern Mid-Atlantic where I reside. Edited January 10 by Tater 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 10 Moderators Share Posted January 10 36 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Speaking of machine learning models - the past 2 runs of Stephy (Graph) I got that one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) At the end of the WPC Extended Discussion 😉 At the very least, the colder pattern should lead to a rain-snow line farther southeast than with previous systems. Edited January 11 by Undertakerson2.0 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 27 minutes ago, Tater said: Well, I'll defer to those of you with more experience. I've only been watching weather closely for ~5 years (found Disco during Hurricane Dorian), which has been a bad run of winter weather. My memory is also colored by the storms (and lack thereof) that have effected my area. I only remember 3 snowfalls here greater than 12" in 25 years, two of which occurred in 2009-2010 (it's possible one occurred since then that I don't remember). The problem with cold air (in the limited time I've been watching is that it either needs a near-perfect phase or else we end up with suppression. Otherwise, maybe we get NADS. Again, I haven't seen that much and know even less, so I'll defer to y'all. I just know I get disappointed when I see yet another storm with a projected low too far north (like the Miller A we just had that went through the Chesapeake and never bombed out). There's always a chance the next one works out, just like there's a chance that someone hands me the winning lottery ticket. Edit: I realize that this might sound like bittercasting, though it is not intended as such. I'm just trying to explain why it's rare for widespread snow events near the coast and in the southern Mid-Atlantic where I reside. All is good. That’s why we’re all here brother. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 sheesh I don't come back for a day or two and the pattern thats modeled is highly intriguing. Not sure if this was posted, but Bernie's thoughts on a one two punch..and he goes over football weather, will be interesting weekend aside from the rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 55 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: At the end of the WPC Extended Discussion 😉 At the very least, the colder pattern should lead to a rain-snow line farther southeast than with previous systems. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The dude can’t even use proper English. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Rickrd said: The dude can’t even use proper English. Either does Yoda. Still a pretty wise 900 year old. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, 1816 said: Either does Yoda. Still a pretty wise 900 year old. The dude was so wrong on so many occasions. Yes. He popped a few. But most of the time he was wrong. And offered nothing to convo. Just a thumbs up thumbs down poster. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) He really leaned into the "Snobal" character and the mystique that came with it. The avatar alone was just outlandish. Edited January 11 by rmo09001 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, Rickrd said: The dude was so wrong on so many occasions. Yes. He popped a few. But most of the time he was wrong. And offered nothing to convo. Just a thumbs up thumbs down poster. Usually it was thumbs down 🤣 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, Rickrd said: The dude was so wrong on so many occasions. Yes. He popped a few. But most of the time he was wrong. And offered nothing to convo. Just a thumbs up thumbs down poster. Perhaps but he's an unofficial weather mascot who's memory lives on even though no one has heard from him in years. Put some respect on snowbal name. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 hours ago, Tater said: In my limited experience, it appears that for a widespread coastal snowfall (ie I-95 special), you need a Miller A type storm where the low is offshore by the time it reaches OBX. If the low doesn't move offshore til Chesapeake or later, it is too close to the shore and it floods the coast with warmth from the ocean without having access to cold air from up north. If it is further offshore, it can wrap some cold air in all the way to the coast. Also, the tracks that stay close to the shore deliver a large dry slot on the backside of the storm in the SW quadrant, so any wraparound cold air there is wasted. Furthermore, it has more time to deepen (bombogenesis) if it can get offshore earlier. Too often this doesn't occur til it gets too far north to help us out. The trick is to keep the low offshore without it escaping OTS. That unfortunately doesn't happen very often (but when it does it makes for a memorable event). Alternatively, if you can get a phase between the northern and southern streams with appropriate blocking (a la Feb 2010), you can get a nice storm for the snow-starved. However, I think those are even more rare than Miller A setups. I agree with your assessment because several years ago when the coast got hit with multiple coastal snowstorms, we had sun and cold here during those storms. Usually if we are getting snow from a coastal storm, someone on the coast is getting rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Rickrd said: The dude was so wrong on so many occasions. Yes. He popped a few. But most of the time he was wrong. And offered nothing to convo. Just a thumbs up thumbs down poster. I just liked the mystery. He was a character of contradictions. Sadly I don't have one of him responding to Rick. I'm dying to use the one I have for PARD. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, rmo09001 said: He really leaned into the "Snobal" character and the mystique that came with it. The avatar alone was just outlandish. Agreed. He's rocking that 70's paneling, the plaid shirt, cheesy mustache and glasses. You know he don't need no wingman, he just walks into a bar and has all the ladies..... 🤣 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 31 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I just liked the mystery. He was a character of contradictions. Sadly I don't have one of him responding to Rick. I'm dying to use the one I have for PARD. Haha send it to me in a PM. I forget what it says 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikered30 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I am surprised that an imposter snobol hasn't made an account yet and stared typing like this 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 11 Moderators Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Haha send it to me in a PM. I forget what it says No no no... you'll have to be surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, clm said: Due to inflation we may need two quarters Bring back the half dollar! I am surely showing my age. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) listen, i used to like a good snoball comment in a thread just like the rest of you, but this obsession about posting his old comments and referring to him ad nauseam is getting a bit tiring to be honest either invite him here directly or let's leave it to the one-offs once in a while Edited January 11 by ionizer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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