LUCC Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I'll see myself out, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 7 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 7 Looking at everything.. this is probably the next best time frame at the moment. I’m ready for another! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, LUCC said: I'll see myself out, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 F#$^ F$$@ F*&$! If we get 3 flooding inducing super cutters in a row after this I'm done with winter.......that's just a cruel joke 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Yeah - this time period is not a cutter on the GFS It's another winter storm with marginal cold air, certainly. Euro spread on its Ens's so large it's even difficult to say it shows a cutter. Watch this one closely folks. I think it holds a bunch of winter. We are still stepping down - must wait until MJO helps at EoM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 7 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 7 Ensembles starting to show some clustering.. definitely not a cutter as modeled currently. GEFS EPS CMCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) The storm this time period actually, to me, has hallmarks of this past storm. Especially after I view the various solutions of the ensembles. (for which you know I use Ewall) Just to my eye, they look very much like those I was monitoring leading up to this event. To get an all snow storm for the entire gang will have to wait for one of two things. February, when the MJO comes in amped through Ph7 headed towards 8; and/or, one of these puppies finds a way to stall and stack ideally at the 4070BM Edited January 8 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Interestingly, the CPC analog set is VERY 1960-s centric Earlier today, I discussed how cold and snowy the 60's were, - set me up to believe winter is always cold and snowy here in CTP land I note the 1/30/78 storm that I remembered missing us but within one week we got blasted with Feb1978 - one that will always have a special place in my heart. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) Turning to spaghetti, we see how the UA has a favorable look for cold and stormy conditions in the East W based NAO region heights. PNA region heights. A cold gyre of major "oomph" (hey, that's a meteo term right?) over E Canada. The major concern for me here is we might miss wide right or flat (too much "oomph" over top. Edited January 8 by Undertakerson2.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Interestingly, the CPC analog set is VERY 1960-s centric Earlier today, I discussed how cold and snowy the 60's were, - set me up to believe winter is always cold and snowy here in CTP land I note the 1/30/78 storm that I remembered missing us but within one week we got blasted with Feb1978 - one that will always have a special place in my heart. Feb1978 remember that one well as and 8yr old 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dominio Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 On 1/6/2024 at 7:38 PM, MaineJay said: Rural? How close to a major shopping center? Winter sports enthusiasts? @telejunkie went from L.I. to VT if I'm not losing my mind. I don't know Vermont very well, I know NH a bit. I'd say 45 mins from a decent size town 30k.. 1 hr 30 to 2 from Boston or Springfield. Paved roads. Well and septic not an issue. Prefer someone to get the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 AI weather model for this time frame. I’ve been reading that it is pretty good. We shall see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 50 minutes ago, Rickrd said: AI weather model for this time frame. I’ve been reading that it is pretty good. We shall see. Which website is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 8 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 8 26 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said: Which website is that? https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 31 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said: Which website is that? https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202401071200&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202401071800 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 8 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 8 Just wait until the run where all three come together.. and look at those heights out west. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Penn State said: Just wait until the run where all three come together.. and look at those heights out west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 8 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 8 Korean model agrees.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 8 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 8 I think it’s interesting to look at the GEFS 6 hour snowfall mean.. You can see the shadow of potential. A couple questions.. 50/50 low? I don’t see it.. High to the north? None.. but there is a strong low. Are those problems? Strengthening,. Occurs late, but 500mb looks close to merging streams.. Is there room for that to happen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8 Author Admin Share Posted January 8 Just going with the ensemble means and spread right now. Although the trof doesn't look terribly sharp, this can likely be attributed to timing differences. This one really depends on the leading storm. It turns into a Hudson Bay vortex. It's position, shape, and strength play huge role l. Along with the shortwave details that'll need ironing out. I imagine this will be a more popular thread than the 2 preceding it, as there's much more snow potential here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertop Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) Spoiler GFS vs GEFS GEM vs GEPS Overnight/Early morning 850 anomaly maps from operational vs. ensemble runs for 0Z on 1-16-24. American and Canadian models, show, if nothing else, that there is a big disparity between the OP and Ensembles and that we have a LONG way to go to lock anything down. Edited January 8 by Weathertop Removing images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 GMAO (NASA model) shows this as a wide right miss. Euro Ens do not seem to agree with the Op Run and similarly show meager QPF (suggests wide right miss) (^fwiw, on both) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) 12 hours ago, Penn State said: Just wait until the run where all three come together.. and look at those heights out west. Triple Lindy!! Edited January 8 by LUCC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 hours ago, MaineJay said: Just going with the ensemble means and spread right now. Although the trof doesn't look terribly sharp, this can likely be attributed to timing differences. This one really depends on the leading storm. It turns into a Hudson Bay vortex. It's position, shape, and strength play huge role l. Along with the shortwave details that'll need ironing out. I imagine this will be a more popular thread than the 2 preceding it, as there's much more snow potential here. Yes, I agree with you here. This is def the threat to watch. This might actually get overshadowed by the preceding storms. It’s a ways out there, but keep an eye on the h5 maps. The -nao block has been trending more favorably with each and every passing run. Plus not to mention it’s the heavenly high almighty western based -nao block. It’s totally not uncommon to have the models take some time and play catch up as the -nao block positions in place. Just something to keep an eye on as we go forward. Also, the 50/50 block is there as well. This has potential for certain. Shy away from the surface maps for now, they can be very misleading at this 8-9-10 day range. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z Euro - nearly did the TL - was very close 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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