Moderators Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: Nothing like turning 21 on 2/22/22 😀 Happy Birthday! too bad its not 22 on 2/22/22 😂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Squall getting going. Might have an embedded supercell in there. Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Wasn't expecting to see 'watch unlikely' but I guess this is in the marginal risk and it's not looking as impressive as a bit ago. Watching satellite for lightning strikes from any developing cells. Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Areas affected...Central MS into West-Central/Far Northwestern AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222154Z - 230000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible from central MS into west-central/far northwestern AL this evening. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Coverage and intensity of multicellular thunderstorms has recently increased across southwest MS, likely a result of persistent low-level confluence combined with diurnal destabilization. Expectation is for these storms to continue northeastward into an environment characterized by slightly less buoyancy but slightly more vertical shear. As a result, potential exists for a few of these updrafts to organize into supercells, with an attendant severe threat for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two. The severe threat is currently expected to stay isolated, tempered by the limited buoyancy and lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, trends will be monitored closely and a watch may be needed if storm coverage and intensity continue to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 This one might be on the 'right' side of the warm front for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Got some cells in the Jackson, MS area that are producing plenty of lightning. Currently in the marginal risk so they'll probably take their time developing. Assuming they do at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 This morning we had a tornado warning and the radar idicated rotation traveled the exact same path as the December 10th tornado. Straight from Cayce through Mayfield. It never produced a tornado but there's a lot of anxiety in our area for Tornado warnings, so everyone was freaking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Latest HRRR is looking kinda ugly again Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Mini supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Definitely looking supercellular. I have serious questions about the tornado potential though. Low-level shear is pathetic. Gotta get near the warm front. Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Those are some low probs... Especially for a tor watch. Still needs to be taken seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Those are some low probs... Especially for a tor watch. Still needs to be taken seriously though. No kidding probably some of the lowest I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Those are some low probs... Especially for a tor watch. Still needs to be taken seriously though. Thankfully the general public isn't aware that probabilities are tied to watches... so they treat each respective watch equally. The exception of course is PDS watches. That wording catches their attention. Edited February 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2022 Good thing this day happened today and not in a month or two. Storm mode has been mostly favorable in the warm sector. Probably wouldn't have been a big tornado outbreak because the low-level shear wouldn't be any different but more instability would at least make this a more widespread severe weather day with the potential for a surprise tornado day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, NebraskaEgg said: Benefiting from a slight increase in low-level shear combined with a low LCL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2022 Warm front has awoken 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) Broken line of showers along the cold front heading for W OH. Shame because 0z ILN sounding showed an impressive layer of instability. Would be interesting to hear what those showers are like because air parcels in that layer would be rising pretty quick. From eyeballing it, looks like maybe a -4 LI? Which is approaching moderately unstable. Maybe I'll get to experience it... who knows. Fingers crossed. Edited February 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2022 45 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Broken line of showers along the cold front heading for W OH. Shame because 0z ILN sounding showed an impressive layer of instability. Would be interesting to hear what those showers are like because air parcels in that layer would be rising pretty quick. From eyeballing it, looks like maybe a -4 LI? Which is approaching moderately unstable. Maybe I'll get to experience it... who knows. Fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2022 I guess we're not done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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