NebraskaEgg Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Lotta lightning with these storms That's a ton of lightning for a storm that small. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Latest HRRR makes a squall appear in W AR at 12z. Makes sense this would appear now, but let's see if there's consistency. If so, that'll change tomorrow one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Doesn't change things for Dixie Alley but would make that squall passage a one-and-done for SW KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Got some tiny areas of rotation in that cluster in E OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Rest of the 0z CAMs have some warm sector supercells, some last multiple hours. Seems central MS into NW AL is the bullseye among them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 There's some small rotations in that cluster in E OK, but it seems to messy to really get anything going. Still a wind and hail threat though but so far no tornadoes yet but there's still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Today's gonna be a fun day. The way I save my images is mmddyy-n so today's gonna include five 2's. Embedded tornadic supercell or possibly two has emerged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Nothing like turning 21 on 2/22/22 😀 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, OKwx_2001 said: Nothing like turning 21 on 2/22/22 😀 Happy birthday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: Happy birthday! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 Newest day 1 outlook has a fairly large 5% tornado area. They mention a complex scenario with 2 rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 I actually had a rumble of thunder earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: Nothing like turning 21 on 2/22/22 😀 Happy, happy birthday!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, FortySixAnd32 said: Happy, happy birthday!!! Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: Nothing like turning 21 on 2/22/22 😀 Well, Happy Birthday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) No longer have a number of warm sector discrete supercells but now we might have a long-lived supercell that rides the warm front... which is worse for the magnitude of the tornado threat. Plenty of sunshine Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 24 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: No longer have a number of warm sector discrete supercells but now we might have a long-lived supercell that rides the warm front... which is worse for the magnitude of the tornado threat. Plenty of sunshine Good to see ya, CV! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 33 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: No longer have a number of warm sector discrete supercells but now we might have a long-lived supercell that rides the warm front... which is worse for the magnitude of the tornado threat. Plenty of sunshine Where would this supercell be? Not the best at interpreting HRRR. Glad to see you found your way here too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, NebraskaEgg said: Where would this supercell be? Not the best at interpreting HRRR. Glad to see you found your way here too! 21 minutes ago, RobB said: Good to see ya, CV! Thanks. I'm planning on being active in both forums. I don't do drama so I'm just gonna carry on. Easy enough to do a simple copy/paste when there's something like a tornado warning. Northern MS/northern AL. Latest HRRR lost that warm front-riding supercell, but does have some others to worry about. I do find it weird that HRRR had warm sector cells when it was supposed to be cloudy all day in the threat area... but now there's fewer warm sector cells when they're gonna get sun? I'm not doubting HRRR because I guess something else changed... maybe the forcing or something. Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: Thanks. I'm planning on being active in both forums. I don't do drama so I'm just gonna carry on. Northern MS/northern AL. Latest HRRR lost that warm front-riding supercell, but does have some others to worry about. I do find it weird that HRRR had warm sector cells when it was supposed to be cloudy all day in the threat area... but now there's fewer warm sector cells when they're gonna get sun? I'm not doubting HRRR because I guess something else changed... maybe the forcing or something. I feel ya. I still peek in at other forum. I didn't ask for account deletion.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Thanks. I'm planning on being active in both forums. I don't do drama so I'm just gonna carry on. Easy enough to do a simple copy/paste when there's something like a tornado warning. Northern MS/northern AL. Latest HRRR lost that warm front-riding supercell, but does have some others to worry about. I do find it weird that HRRR had warm sector cells when it was supposed to be cloudy all day in the threat area... but now there's fewer warm sector cells when they're gonna get sun? I'm not doubting HRRR because I guess something else changed... maybe the forcing or something. Would that be the one to the south going from east central Mississippi to north central Alabama? I have a friend there I might want to warn - thanks for posting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, NebraskaEgg said: Would that be the one to the south going from east central Mississippi to north central Alabama? I have a friend there I might want to warn - thanks for posting this. That one doesn't look too well developed based on that run, but the parameters are there for it to be supercellular. There's just a lot of uncertainty right now but it looks like the most favorable parameters will be closer to the warm front in N AL/N MS/S TN... but the warm sector is worth watching as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) HRRR is just all over the place. I guess it'll just be a nowcast kind of day. I predict more than the usual number of "here we go..."'s Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Sounds like SPC likes N AL/N MS/S TN more than central MS Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes remain possible into this evening across northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama into southern middle Tennessee. ...MS/AL/TN... Convective redevelopment is underway in the wake of the decaying squall line, both along the surface cold front in south-central AR and atop the pre-frontal convective outflow into the Memphis vicinity. Potential still exists for this activity to intensify as it overtakes the leading convective outflow given the undisturbed warm sector across much of MS has warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s. A linear cluster mode with embedded supercell structures should foster some threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two. With southern extent into central MS, time-series of DGX VWP data indicates low-level shear has weakened as previously advertised. The decreasing spatial extent of adequately enlarged low-level hodographs coincident with potential sustained discrete convection (which continues to have limited confidence in occurring) suggests no appreciable adjustment is necessary for the southeast extent of the tornado/wind threat. Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Gotta watch that warm front. Moderate low-level shear, moderate low-level instability, moderate surface vorticity. Plenty of reason for a tornado threat. \ Edited February 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.d854dd115fa9dfd0656f7d1835c449ce.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now