January 9-10, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[NJ Snowman]

20 minutes ago, ionizer said:

is this still the latest info?

On top of the wind, here is all the rivers with potential flooding.   

[so_whats_happening]

Somehow managed about 2 inches from the last storm and 3 inches on the year. Virtually all of it is gone at this point though. Solid 2 inch rainstorm on the way and should be a fun time seeing if these winds verify. So glad I got a sump pump installed over the fall hasn't gotten to that point yet but with continual rain it may just happen in the next week.

[1816]

2 hours ago, JDClapper said:

The one that will produce 1.21 gigawatts of electricity. 

GREAT SCOTT

[MaineJay]

7 hours ago, buxtonian said:

The aren't many warnings left

We added winter storm warning and hurricane force wind...

[MaineJay]

BOX

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

The calm before storm number two. Seasonably chilly this morning
with locations away from the coast fell into the 20s and teens. In
Orange, MA the 2AM observation had 8 degrees! Expecting temperatures
will stabilize as more high and mid clouds move in from the west,
already seen on nighttime RBG. Surface high pressure departs the
region this morning allowing for rather calm conditions.

Strengthening low level warm advection and deepening moisture at the
leading edge of the 850 mb jet will result in precip overspreading
SNE from west to east during the afternoon. The column remains cold
enough for precip to begin as snow across interior MA, although
could see a brief rain-snow mix across the hills of northern CT and
NW RI at the onset. Otherwise, precip begins as rain across RI and
eastern MA.

Onset for western MA and CT between 2pm and 4pm, with eastern MA and
RI between 4pm and 6pm.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

* Quick hit of snow across interior southern New England this
  afternoon, with Winter Weather Advisory for parts of NW MA.

* Widespread 2-3" and locally 4" of rainfall leading to river
  and poor drainage flooding tonight and Wednesday.

* High Wind Warning was expanded to include coastal Essex County
  and interior Plymouth county and Bristol County in MA. In RI
  was expanded to eastern Kent County and Bristol County.

* Coastal Flood Watch continues, but did expand to eastern MA,
  Cape Cod, and the Islands.

A robust area of low pressure located over the southern plains is
expected to bring multiple hazards to southern New England beginning
late this afternoon through Wednesday. There were a few adjustments
during tonight forecast update, notably to expand the High Wind
Warning and expand the Coastal Flood Watch. Otherwise, details for
storm number two for the week remain largely unchanged.

Currently, the surface low is centered over the state of Oklahoma
and is expected to move northeast, reaching the Great Lakes region by
late tonight, and from there, the low reaches the Saint Lawrence
River Valley by Wednesday afternoon. While improvements will be
underway the second half of Wednesday, river flooding will likely
persist well into the later half of the week.

Let`s discuss the hazards at hand...

SNOW: There has been little change to the snowfall forecast and no
change to the the Winter Weather Advisory; this includes the
northern Berkshires of western MA. Cold antecedent airmass will
allow a quick punch of snow to fall across the high terrain of the
Berkshires and Worcester county at precipitation onset, currently
slated for 20z to 22z. HREF ensemble probabilities continue to hint
at the chance for 1" or greater per hour accumulation, but it will
be a race against time as warm air rushes in between 00z-03z as SLRs
fall from ~10:1 to less than 3:1. The greatest accumulations are
expected across far northwestern Franklin county where cold air
persists the longest. Expecting accumulations of 1-2" of snow across
the high terrain of Worcester County, with localized amounts near
the NH border to 3". And 2-4" with isolated totals of 5" across the
northeastern slopes of the Berkshires. We continued to hold off on
expanding the Winter Weather Advisory into northern Worcester County
at this time, but if confidence were to increase in widespread
snowfall of 3" or more it could become necessary.

Rain and Flooding: Say goodbye to the snowy landscape as heavy rain
is expected to fall across all of southern New England. We have a
very robust and moisture charged system as PWATs surge in excess of
1.25" overnight; values more representative of summer and some 3
sigma of normal for this time of year. Thanks to efficient moisture
transport from S/SE winds parallel to the approaching cold front and
warm cloud depths around 10,000ft, it is no surprise that hi-res
guidance continues to emphasize the potential for widespread
rainfall amounts of 2-3", with the possibility of localized 4"
across areas of central and southwest CT per the GFS ensemble.

In addition to rainfall, snowmelt will be a huge player in the
threat for flooding overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. While
antecedent airmass is cold, temperatures will warm rapidly from the
30s/40s to the 40s/50s, which will obliterate the snowpack south of
the MA Turnpike. Given the current liquid equivalent of snow across
northern RI and CT is somewhere in the range of 0.75-1.5", total
liquid values of some 3.5-5" will enter the watersheds of the
southern half of the CWA. This threat is highlighted best on the
MMEFS for the Pawtuxet River in Cranston, which currently has a 30%
chance of major flooding come Wednesday. In addition to river
flooding, which is anticipated to be quite considerable, poor
drainage and urban flooding is also likely.

North of the Pike, the foot to foot and a half of snowfall received
this past weekend and the 1-4" of snow that falls on the leading
edge of this system will act as a sponge for much of the rain that
falls, thus, we anticipate some of the snowpack to survive this
system and hopefully quell at least some flooding concerns across
northern MA. Still, poor drainage flooding is possible given many
storm drains are still clogged by snow.

Overnight there were no changes to the ERO, which remains moderate
for all of CT and RI, while slight for MA. The flood watch issued by
the previous shift remains unchanged.

Wind: Confidence continues to increase that strong to damaging winds
will impact coastal communities of southern New England. With
tonight update did expand the High Wind Warning to coastal Essex
County, the interior of southeast MA (northern Bristol and Plymouth
Counties), and eastern Kent County and Bristol County in Rhode
Island. The other areas which were under the High Wind Watch have
been converted over to a Wind Advisory as confidence remains low that
cities like Providence and Boston will reach the high wind criteria.
FWIW, DESI has a 25 percent prob of those cities exceeding a wind
gust of 58mph. While there is a 70 to 85 percent prob of gusts AOA
46mph.

High res guidance continues to suggest the LLJ approaching 70 to 80
kts across the Cape and Islands overnight, with 850mb approaching
100 kts! Greatest forecast challenge remains the strong inversion
tied to the current snowpack and how quickly WAA is able to overcome
that influence. Overall, expecting max wind gusts on the order of 50-
60kt with a few gusts to 65kt not out of the question.

There are several reasons we anticipate the highest winds to be
centered southeast of I-95 and along coastal RI and MA. The first
being that the strongest jet will skirt the south coast of southern
New England. Second, as mentioned previously, the snowpack is
expected to be completely eliminated by WAA and rainfall, which will
mix out the inversion while the most potent portion of the jet is
centered above SNE. Rapid pressure falls will also aid in mixing out
the inversion but that too will be a race against the clock as winds
begin to shift to the west. Strongest winds will occur between 04z
and 14Z Wednesday, though gusts in excess of 35kt may persist for
much of the day across the waters.

We would like to emphasize that the difference of a few degrees will
drive how far inland strong to damaging winds will extend, and with
the current forecast calling for temperatures in the 50s to extend
all the way to the Springfield metro area, the damaging wind threat
may creep further inland than where warnings are currently
posted.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

[so_whats_happening]

The Euro has about a 90-100knot LLJ across Delaware/ SNJ/ Long Island area this evening. Wow that will be something!

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

[JDClapper]

Meh, 34 already. Sad.

[NHSparky]

9 degrees in Nashua this morning with over a foot of snow on the ground, hard to believe it's going to be raining and near 50 tomorrow.

[Wtkidz]

Temps rise, heavy rain , and  high winds oh my.  Expecting over 2 “ of rain. 
 

35 degrees and dark.  
 

longest AFD I I have ever seen.  From LWX STERLING

 

Quote

WEDNESDAY/...

Previous forecast remains largely on track. Have made a few
adjustments with the overnight forecast package:

1) Upgraded Garrett and Western Allegany to a Winter Storm
Warning. Concern is for heavy snow on the order of one to two
inches per hour for several hours, then a changeover to freezing
rain, and eventually rain. A general 4-8" is expected in the
bullseye from eastern Garrett into far western Allegany near
Savage Mountains. Travel may briefly be impossible along I-68
this morning given rates of 1-2" per hour.

2) Upgraded the entire Chesapeake Bay to a Storm Warning and
adjoining land zones to a High Wind Warning. BUFKIT profiles
show the potential for 50-55 kts to mix down right along the
shoreline with the highest winds expected this evening.

3) Added Grant County to the Flood Watch. While QPF is slightly
less in Grant, all water from Pendleton drains into Grant so
there could be impacts along streams, creeks, and rivers.

4) Converted all Coastal Flood Watches to Coastal Flood
Warnings. See the CFWLWX for the latest.

Updated forecast discussion follows...

A potent low pressure system is expected to bring numerous
high-impact hazards to the region today into Wednesday.

A powerful and highly amplified upper level trough over the Central
Plains pushes east toward the Eastern Seaboard today into
Wednesday. A rapidly deepening surface low over the Southern
Plains rapidly moves northeast toward the Great Lakes today, as
a secondary wave of low pressure develops over the northern
Gulf Coast and is swept up by a strong cold front rapidly
pushing east. Ahead of this complex, winds begin to increase
Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient across the region
tightens. A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is
likely along and west of the Blue Ridge, with snow focused west
of the Shenandoah Valley from US-48 up toward the Cumberland
area. Heavy rainfall overspread the area this afternoon into
tonight, likely leading to widespread flooding issues. River
flooding is also likely to occur given the heavy rain, and
addition of some snowmelt into the rivers upstream. Windy
conditions expected, with the strongest winds Tuesday evening.
Dangerous marine conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

In terms of temperatures, very strong WAA in southerly flow is going
to rapidly bring temps to the 40s to low 50s by early
afternoon, eventually climbing to 50s and low 60s in the
evening. Now for the impacts:

Wintry Mix: Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Garrett
and Allegany Counties. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for the majority of areas along and west of the Blue
Ridge. Model temperature profiles still vary, likely somewhat
owing to uncertainty in precipitation rate and how much the
column will cool. In general, 1 to 2 inches of snow and a glaze
to a tenth of an inch of ice is possible along the ridges/higher
elevations. Although a brief mix is possible, most valley
locations should have minimal impacts. To the north, there is
good model agreement in high snow rates resulting in heavy snow
across portions of eastern Garrett, western Allegany, western
Mineral, and western Grant Counties. Snow accumulations of 3-8"
are likely.. However, a transition to sleet or freezing rain
could limit these totals. On the other hand, any ridges which
stay below freezing could accumulate more ice, potentially
approaching one quarter inch. All Advisories were extended until
1 PM given uncertainty with how quickly warm air will take
over.

Heavy Rain: Very efficient warm-cloud processes are expected to
produce significant rainfall totals east of the Blue Ridge. This
system has all the ingredients - strong diffluence aloft, a deep
moist airmass originating from the Gulf of Mexico, record high
integrated water vapor transport (based on climatology) - to produce
widespread flooding, especially in urban areas. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1-3" are expected, with higher amounts of 4"
possible along/east of the Blue Ridge. The foothills of the Blue
Ridge could see totals up to 5" given the strong convergent
flow into the ridge.

Flood Watches have been issued for most of the area from Tuesday
morning through early Wednesday morning. The upcoming heavy
rainfall is likely to produce widespread flooding, with
significant urban, small stream, and river flooding possible.
River Flood Watches have been issued for several tributary
forecast points. Should some of the modeled convective elements
come to fruition this evening over the metros, Flash Flooding
would also be a concern.

Strong Winds: An unprecedented LLJ is likely to develop over the
eastern half of the CWA this afternoon into tonight as the main
surface low moves through. Current soundings continue to
indicate 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. The evening
sounding tonight at IAD could break observed wind records at
925mb, 850mb, and 700mb.

The main issue is going to be whether all of this wind mixes down to
the surface. Southerly wind events struggle to do this as warm air
aloft moving over a cooler rainy surface airmass results in a
stable environment. However, given the strength and speed of
this system, strong pressure falls, and high precip rates, some
of this wind should mix down. The current thinking is winds gust
to 40-50mph along and east of I-95, with higher gusts possible
along the immediate Western Shore. A High Wind Warning has been
issued for southern Harford, southern Baltimore, Anne Arundel, Calvert
and St. Mary`s County due to higher winds along the Chesapeake.
The current thinking is that winds gusts inland should peak in
the 45-55 mph range. Peak wind gusts occur between 4PM to 10PM
Tuesday.

A Wind Advisory has also been issued for the Allegheny Front
this morning and afternoon as winds ahead of the surface low
gust to 50mph.

Severe: While a convective line may move through the area, the
current thinking is that it will be elevated in nature, embedded
within the warm advection precipitation. It is uncommon for
strong winds to be brought down in this environment, but this
situation will be monitored. SPC has brought the MRGL risk of
SVR weather across the southern Chesapeake Bay with the general
TSTM southeast of I-95.

The cold front sweeps through the area tonight, though some
showers and light rain linger into Wednesday morning. On the
backside mountain snow showers are expected to pick up Wednesday
morning and continue through Wednesday night. Snow
accumulations could reach Advisory level for parts of the
Allegheny Front. Dry conditions return to all except the
Alleghenies by late Wednesday morning. While strong winds
decrease Tuesday night, then are expected to pick back up late
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Gusts of 35-45 mph are
possible, with up to 50mph in the higher elevations. Additional
Wind Advisories may be needed. The upper trough finally moves
east of the area Wednesday night, bringing the return of calmer
weather conditions.

&&

 

[Wtkidz]

[Undertakerson2.0]

[JDClapper]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Seeing mping reports of snow very near State College now.

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Seeing mping reports of snow very near State College now.

I haven't eyeballed any flakes yet

[MaineJay]

I love being on a hill.  It's 21° at my house, but 1,500' away on the pond, it's 6°.

[JDClapper]

Mping report in State College of snow!

[Wtkidz]

Pretty colors … 

[Tater]

Started as a light skiff of snow (<0.5") but has now changed to sleet/rain. Temperature has climbed up to 33, so it's all downhill from here.

[JDClapper]

Seeing some 2 degreeish wet-bulbing occured in State College with the arrival of the snow. 34 to 32 pretty quick.  Mping also show people reporting snow accumulating on driveways and such southwest of State College.

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Seeing some 2 degreeish wet-bulbing occured in State College with the arrival of the snow. 34 to 32 pretty quick.  Mping also show people reporting snow accumulating on driveways and such southwest of State College.

you got any of that mPing for Hbg region?

[LUCC]

12 hours ago, Wtkidz said:

Mine is   Portable but  is portable but is 12,000 watts so we can run most of the house if needed.  I am on well and that was the worst problem  no running water . 

Yup, have a 12k watt generator that gets plugged into the sub-panel, just flip a switch and well, water heater, oven, stove, most outlets/lights, etc. are usable.

 

[JDClapper]

State College rn

 

[dmg002]

16 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Seeing some 2 degreeish wet-bulbing occured in State College with the arrival of the snow. 34 to 32 pretty quick.  Mping also show people reporting snow accumulating on driveways and such southwest of State College.

After the melting that occurred yesterday, everything has been blanketed with a fresh coat in State College—snow falling at an even heavier rate than at any point on Sunday. 😯 

[JDClapper]

17 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

you got any of that mPing for Hbg region?

Rain just popped up