January 9-10, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[twinmama08]

1 hour ago, MDBlueridge said:

These are classic for coming in front end loaded but I agree arrival time means a lot. 

My bet for down here is areas that saw 5"+ of snow will see huge flakes flying tomorrow morning. And the models (even 3K) are horrible with CAD. 

I always look for your both your CAD and ice signal posts-- you have saved the day many times over my years of lurking.  Thank you!

[MDBlueridge]

15 minutes ago, twinmama08 said:

I always look for your both your CAD and ice signal posts-- you have saved the day many times over my years of lurking.  Thank you!

oh you....

[StretchCT]

[Tater]

2 hours ago, LUCC said:

That's a depressing map. Can't even get more than a few inches on the 384 GFS map. Usually I can at least console myself with digital fantasy snow on the long range GFS.

Edit: maybe that's a contrarian indicator. Maybe now we'll get a couple feet.

Edited January 8 by Tater

[1816]

4 minutes ago, Tater said:

That's a depressing map. Can't even get more than a few inches on the 384 GFS map. Usually I can at least console myself with digital fantasy snow on the long range GFS.

If there were any people in northwestern Ontario imagine how pissed they would be. 

[Pghsnow]

[MDBlueridge]

Gonna be some surprises with a thumpity thumpity Imma a bettin'

[Jon Snow]

5 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

Gonna be some surprises with a thumpity thumpity Imma a bettin'

I would love to see that, but is Lucy REALLY going to hold that football this time?

[MDBlueridge]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

I would love to see that, but is Lucy REALLY going to hold that football this time?

I have no comfort level down your way lol Don't know the area. But inside that loop its at elevation as well. 

NWS Snippet

The first threat is also the least certain, snow and mixed
precipitation. The latest progs by man and machine have
increased snow totals as the dynamics and high moisture generate
precipitation which will run over a cold airmass over the
Laurels in the morning and then rapidly into Alleghenies and
central mountains before Noon. A 2-5 hr period of snow is
possible for those areas, and the peak intensity of the snow
could rival what we saw on Sat. There is also the chance for
some freezing rain. With a slightly lower confidence in these
high numbers vs what we saw for a few days previous, there is
just under enough support to post winter weather products on
this shift. As the details come into better focus and confidence
can be built in any scenario, there will likely be a winter
weather advisory posted at some point.

[MDBlueridge]

They know. 

[Jon Snow]

3 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

I have no comfort level down your way lol Don't know the area. But inside that loop its at elevation as well. 

NWS Snippet

The first threat is also the least certain, snow and mixed
precipitation. The latest progs by man and machine have
increased snow totals as the dynamics and high moisture generate
precipitation which will run over a cold airmass over the
Laurels in the morning and then rapidly into Alleghenies and
central mountains before Noon. A 2-5 hr period of snow is
possible for those areas, and the peak intensity of the snow
could rival what we saw on Sat. There is also the chance for
some freezing rain. With a slightly lower confidence in these
high numbers vs what we saw for a few days previous, there is
just under enough support to post winter weather products on
this shift. As the details come into better focus and confidence
can be built in any scenario, there will likely be a winter
weather advisory posted at some point.

I know this area can be quite a challenge for any met.  I don't have to drove more than 5-7 miles to see significant changes in temp and precipitation types.  That map actually does show elevation dependent differences, and interestingly shows more snow on the eastern side of the blue ridge.  Usually its the western slopes getting the snow.  

[JDClapper]

A good old fashioned nowcast thumping event. Some place are in a better position than others, but ya never know until ya know.

Im a little weary here.. 40 out now and isnt progged to get too cold tonight (30). Need the onset to get here quick to up those chances.

[jbrumberg]

Nursing some aches and pains from the last weather event I can now focus on the next.  The NWS/B-N Office has issued both a Flood Watch and a WWA for this pending "multi-faceted" weather event.

Spoiler

Highlights

*  Potentially high impact multi-faceted system Tue Night into Wed.
   Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall, coastal and
   river/stream flooding all possible. Quick hit of accumulating
   snow also possible across the higher terrain of the interior.

Given the ongoing system have stuck with the NBM through the
forecast.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...

Placed all emphasis of the extended on this period of the forecast
as a high impact weather event is possible across southern New
England. Signals have continued to point toward this over the past
couple of days. A multi-faceted system is anticipated to bring
strong to damaging winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding and river
flooding. Could also have a quick front end thump, mainly across the
higher terrain, before ptype changes over to all rain.

Synoptic details...

A deep neutrally tilted trough will be located over the Lower/Middle
Mississippi River Valley Tue AM.  Low/Mid Mississippi River Valley
Tue AM. This will lift into the TN/OH Valley beginning to become
slightly negatively tilted Tue evening. The trough continues to lift
northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic Wed
afternoon becoming negatively tilted. The trough lifts through by
Wed Night. A powerful frontal system lifts through southern New
England during this timeframe.

Wind Signals...

Confidence remains high for strong to damaging winds. In our latest
update have issued a High Wind Watch across roughly the I-95
corridor eastward and Storm Watches for the marine areas. The latest
NAEFS/EPS guidance still showing winds 5-6 STD above model climo
over the BOX area! The main timeframe that is highlighted is Tue
Night into early Fri morning period. During this timeframe a 60-90+
kt S/SSE low level jet slides through. At 925 hPa level
deterministic guidance progged to push a 40-80+ kt SSE/S jet
through. The big question that remains is how much of these winds
mix down, especially given the snowpack we just received could
hamper the amount of mixing within the boundary layer. The GFS/NAM
Bufkit soundings show 40-80 kts only 1 kft off the deck. Given the
melting snowpack due to rain will not be immediate have hoisted the
High Wind Watch generally over the areas where this is not an issue
and where am most confident. The EPS guidance continues to indicate
moderate to high probs (40-100%) of gusts AOA 50 kts across the
eastern MA coast. Further inland probs are low to moderate (<10 to
40%) from eastern CT into RI and eastern portions of central MA. The
EPS also still showing low to moderate (10-60%) probs of gusts AOA
64 kts across SE MA, Cape Ann and the waters. Not out of the
question there could be occasional Hurricane Force Wind gusts across
the ocean waters, but given the ocean SST we don`t tend to mix as
well over the waters with S/SSE flow.

Heavy precipitation...

As was the case over the past couple of days confidence also remains
high in heavy precipitation. Due to this have put up a Flood Watch
for much of southern New England as the combination of heavy
rainfall combined with the snowpack has the potential to result in
significant flooding. Interestingly, the risk for heavy downpours
appears to be over a relatively short period as there are signals of
a fine line working its way through Tue Night into early Wed.
Showing PWATs per the ensemble situational awareness table of 3-4+
STD above model climo over the BOX area. Generally looks like we get
into 1-1.5 inch PWATs, which is near or above record values for CHH
(per SPC Sounding Climo). Still seeing efficient warm rain processes
as warm cloud layer depths are roughly 8-10 kft, though do not have
much experience looking at warm cloud layer depths in Jan at this
latitude. The GEFS and EPS M-Climate continue to show much of
central/western southern New England nearing or over the max of
reforecast climo (going back to the early 2000s) with mean of 2" of
QPF. On top of this the ECWMF Extreme forecast index also hammering
a highly atypical event, especially across the CT River Valley where
some upslope component will enhance rainfall totals. At this point
anticipating widespread 1.5-3 inches of rainfall. Very concerned
given the snowpack we`ve got across the region. This will likely not
only impact the immediate flood risk, but also extended into river
flooding. Given these signals collaborated with WPC to include
portions of southern New England in the Moderate risk for excessive
rainfall.

River Flooding...

Given the precip anticipated in combination with rapidly melting
snow (as dew points will climb into the mid 40s to low 50s with the
rain and strong winds) will likely have river flooding as well. At
this point the MMEFS indicating several locations have a 30% chance
of exceeding minor flooding and a few having a 30% chance of
exceeding moderate.

Coastal Flooding...

Could still have an impactful coastal flooding event across the
region with the strong SSE/S flow, but need to really time the surge
of the strongest winds and pressure rise/fall couplet. Given there
is some timing uncertainty with the 2-4+ ft surge and if it
coincides with high tide have held off from any headlines at this
point. If there are impacts it could be for the Wed AM High tide.
This is something we will need to look at closer in future forecast
updates.

Snowfall...

Will have a brief opportunity for some accumulating snowfall across
the higher terrain areas Tue eve before precipitation changes over
to all rain. Given the higher impacts with the winds, rain and
flooding did not place a lot of emphasis in this area. Will see a
thump of accumulating snow across generally the higher terrain from
00-06Z, but should have most spots change over to all rain by 03Z.
There is some discrepancy with how quickly the warmer air gets in
with most guidance a being fairly quick. Given this uncertainty have
generally stuck with the NBM, but it is not out of the question that
Winter Weather headlines may be necessary for portions of the region
in later updates.

 

 I do not expect much of a frontend thump, but if I am really lucky I may see 1" - 3".

And the related Snow Graphic.

Edited January 8 by jbrumberg

[NJ Snowman]

Flooding is going to be a major issue with this system.  Here is a few projections from the NWS for the Passaic River Basin.  Notice they only go up to the 11th.  Next rain event is on the 12th with rain predicted up to another 2 inches.

[NJ Snowman]

[MDBlueridge]

23 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

A good old fashioned nowcast thumping event. Some place are in a better position than others, but ya never know until ya know.

Im a little weary here.. 40 out now and isnt progged to get too cold tonight (30). Need the onset to get here quick to up those chances.

36F here. Should be an interesting morning. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Got Genny all lubed and warmed up. Hope to not have to call on the old gal. Either she's gaining weight or I'm getting weaker (prolly the latter)

Made sure sump discharges are unobstructed. 

Removed a bit more snow pile from around the foundation

'Bout all I can do for now

[clm]

4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Got Genny all lubed and warmed up. Hope to not have to call on the old gal. Either she's gaining weight or I'm getting weaker (prolly the latter)

Made sure sump discharges are unobstructed. 

Removed a bit more snow pile from around the foundation

'Bout all I can do for now

This guy is a whiz at sump pumping.

[mikeysed]

NJ declares State of Emergency tomorrow:

 

https://www.nj.com/weather/2024/01/nj-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-dangerous-january-storm.html

[clm]

2 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

NJ declares State of Emergency tomorrow:

 

https://www.nj.com/weather/2024/01/nj-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-dangerous-january-storm.html

Soooo not a good day to go flyfishing?

[TheRex]

High Wind Warning for my area.  I have a question:  Since the ground is frozen here, would trees be less likely to fall from the wind, or would that increase the chances that the trees just snap in two?

Quote

High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

NYZ027-029>031-034-VTZ002-005-006-009-011-016>019-091045-
/O.UPG.KBTV.HW.A.0001.240109T2100Z-240110T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBTV.HW.W.0001.240109T2100Z-240110T1200Z/
Northern Franklin-Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-
Western Clinton-Western Essex-Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-
Lamoille-Western Addison-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
Including the cities of Fort Covington, Malone, South Colton,
Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg,
Lake Placid, Newcomb, St. Albans, Swanton, Burlington, Shelburne,
Johnson, Stowe, Middlebury, Vergennes, Fair Haven, Rutland,
Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,
East Wallingford, and Killington
336 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern Adirondacks of New York, Champlain Valley
  of Vermont, and western slope of the Green Mountains.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of heavy wet snowfall is expected
  Tuesday afternoon and evening outside of the Champlain Valley.
  This snow may cling to trees and power lines and increase the
  likelihood of power outages.

 

[NJ Snowman]

Some of us will be able to go fishing from our doorsteps, lol

[clm]

Just now, TheRex said:

High Wind Warning for my area.  I have a question:  Since the ground is frozen here, would trees be less likely to fall from the wind, or would that increase the chances that the trees just snap in two?

 

Snapping is easier.  Spring/Summer trees are more flexible.  Cold weather, snap quicker.

[TheRex]

BTV's snowfall forecast for the region.

Quote

 

[clm]

2 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

Some of us will be able to go fishing from our doorsteps, lol