jbrumberg Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 A cloudy 14ºF for this morning low temperature. These conditions continue with 24ºF the present temperature. The NWS/B-N Office has issued/maintained a Flood watch, WWA, and Flood Watch. From the morning discussion: Spoiler .SYNOPSIS... High pressure yields dry weather into this morning, but a high impact frontal system moves in later today into Wednesday. This has the potential to bring strong to damaging winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding and river/stream flooding. We turn drier late in the week before another system takes aim at us this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM update... * A burst of accumulating snow expected for the higher elevations during the evening commute. Main issue for the afternoon/evening period is a burst of moderate to heavy snow across interior MA, especially the higher elevations. Leading edge of precip moving into central NY and NE PA and this precip will begin to overspread western half New Eng between 1 and 4 pm and eastern New Eng after 4 pm. The column is sufficiently cold to support all snow across interior MA with perhaps a brief period of snow in the northern CT and northern RI hills before changing to rain. Models are indicating a decent thump of snow late afternoon and evening coinciding with the evening commute, especially over the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. A brief period of strong omega in the DGZ will support a few hours of 1"/hr snowfall rates and this is supported with HREF/SREF probs and there is even a low prob of brief 2"/hr rates in the Berkshires. This will result in hazardous travel during the evening commute, with main impact over the higher elevations. Snow will change to rain between 7 and 10 pm from south to north across interior MA. Total accum into the evening before the changeover will be 1-3" in the Worcester Hills with locally up to 4" near the NH border. In the Berkshires, expecting accums of 2-5" with locally up to 6" near the VT border. Across the low elevations of interior MA, accums up to an inch is possible before it changes to rain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... * Quick hit of snow across interior southern New England this afternoon, with Winter Weather Advisory for parts of NW MA. * Widespread 2-3" and locally 4" of rainfall leading to river and poor drainage flooding tonight and Wednesday. * High Wind Warning was expanded to include coastal Essex County and interior Plymouth county and Bristol County in MA. In RI was expanded to eastern Kent County and Bristol County. * Coastal Flood Watch continues, but did expand to eastern MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. A robust area of low pressure located over the southern plains is expected to bring multiple hazards to southern New England beginning late this afternoon through Wednesday. There were a few adjustments during tonight forecast update, notably to expand the High Wind Warning and expand the Coastal Flood Watch. Otherwise, details for storm number two for the week remain largely unchanged. Currently, the surface low is centered over the state of Oklahoma and is expected to move northeast, reaching the Great Lakes region by late tonight, and from there, the low reaches the Saint Lawrence River Valley by Wednesday afternoon. While improvements will be underway the second half of Wednesday, river flooding will likely persist well into the later half of the week. Let`s discuss the hazards at hand... SNOW: There has been little change to the snowfall forecast and no change to the the Winter Weather Advisory; this includes the northern Berkshires of western MA. Cold antecedent airmass will allow a quick punch of snow to fall across the high terrain of the Berkshires and Worcester county at precipitation onset, currently slated for 20z to 22z. HREF ensemble probabilities continue to hint at the chance for 1" or greater per hour accumulation, but it will be a race against time as warm air rushes in between 00z-03z as SLRs fall from ~10:1 to less than 3:1. The greatest accumulations are expected across far northwestern Franklin county where cold air persists the longest. Expecting accumulations of 1-2" of snow across the high terrain of Worcester County, with localized amounts near the NH border to 3". And 2-4" with isolated totals of 5" across the northeastern slopes of the Berkshires. We continued to hold off on expanding the Winter Weather Advisory into northern Worcester County at this time, but if confidence were to increase in widespread snowfall of 3" or more it could become necessary. Rain and Flooding: Say goodbye to the snowy landscape as heavy rain is expected to fall across all of southern New England. We have a very robust and moisture charged system as PWATs surge in excess of 1.25" overnight; values more representative of summer and some 3 sigma of normal for this time of year. Thanks to efficient moisture transport from S/SE winds parallel to the approaching cold front and warm cloud depths around 10,000ft, it is no surprise that hi-res guidance continues to emphasize the potential for widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3", with the possibility of localized 4" across areas of central and southwest CT per the GFS ensemble. In addition to rainfall, snowmelt will be a huge player in the threat for flooding overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. While antecedent airmass is cold, temperatures will warm rapidly from the 30s/40s to the 40s/50s, which will obliterate the snowpack south of the MA Turnpike. Given the current liquid equivalent of snow across northern RI and CT is somewhere in the range of 0.75-1.5", total liquid values of some 3.5-5" will enter the watersheds of the southern half of the CWA. This threat is highlighted best on the MMEFS for the Pawtuxet River in Cranston, which currently has a 30% chance of major flooding come Wednesday. In addition to river flooding, which is anticipated to be quite considerable, poor drainage and urban flooding is also likely. North of the Pike, the foot to foot and a half of snowfall received this past weekend and the 1-4" of snow that falls on the leading edge of this system will act as a sponge for much of the rain that falls, thus, we anticipate some of the snowpack to survive this system and hopefully quell at least some flooding concerns across northern MA. Still, poor drainage flooding is possible given many storm drains are still clogged by snow. Overnight there were no changes to the ERO, which remains moderate for all of CT and RI, while slight for MA. The flood watch issued by the previous shift remains unchanged. Wind: Confidence continues to increase that strong to damaging winds will impact coastal communities of southern New England. With tonight update did expand the High Wind Warning to coastal Essex County, the interior of southeast MA (northern Bristol and Plymouth Counties), and eastern Kent County and Bristol County in Rhode Island. The other areas which were under the High Wind Watch have been converted over to a Wind Advisory as confidence remains low that cities like Providence and Boston will reach the high wind criteria. FWIW, DESI has a 25 percent prob of those cities exceeding a wind gust of 58mph. While there is a 70 to 85 percent prob of gusts AOA 46mph. High res guidance continues to suggest the LLJ approaching 70 to 80 kts across the Cape and Islands overnight, with 850mb approaching 100 kts! Greatest forecast challenge remains the strong inversion tied to the current snowpack and how quickly WAA is able to overcome that influence. Overall, expecting max wind gusts on the order of 50- 60kt with a few gusts to 65kt not out of the question. There are several reasons we anticipate the highest winds to be centered southeast of I-95 and along coastal RI and MA. The first being that the strongest jet will skirt the south coast of southern New England. Second, as mentioned previously, the snowpack is expected to be completely eliminated by WAA and rainfall, which will mix out the inversion while the most potent portion of the jet is centered above SNE. Rapid pressure falls will also aid in mixing out the inversion but that too will be a race against the clock as winds begin to shift to the west. Strongest winds will occur between 04z and 14Z Wednesday, though gusts in excess of 35kt may persist for much of the day across the waters. We would like to emphasize that the difference of a few degrees will drive how far inland strong to damaging winds will extend, and with the current forecast calling for temperatures in the 50s to extend all the way to the Springfield metro area, the damaging wind threat may creep further inland than where warnings are currently posted. I do expect some frontend snow starting this afternoon and I might even see ~3" before the changeover to rain. No matter what happens, this is one very interesting and complex weather system to follow. A snow graphic: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Snow in NNJ Shocker! 🙄 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 9 Admin Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Wayuphere said: You omitted the word “foreign” in front of investors…😉 So do we root for CAD to hang in there or a quicker push to warming? Based on the 3 day storm cycle I’d almost rather see a quick changeover to erase any new accumulations in prep for the next mess. Only have about 1” of snow on the ground so all good as far as flooding. We mix out that inversion and it opens the door for the winds, that's my concern there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 9 Moderators Share Posted January 9 (edited) Wish I had gotten a better sleep last night...expecting to be baby sitting downed power lines and cutting up trees tonight. Temp currently 30F after starting the day at 14F. NWS saying maybe 2" snow before changeover....we'll see. It almost always flips faster than expected here. Edited January 9 by telejunkie 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 36 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 1.5" and still all snow. Reading post on NWS and folks out in I99 country have like 4-6, elevations more. Oof. We have every bit of 4" here, probably one of the thumpiest thumps. Lots of road closings from this greasy wet snow Snow is getting sleety though so the end is nigh. Safe to say we easily have more snow on the ground now at one time than last winter, so I guess that's a win...... Just hope we miss the mega rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Wind picking up and starting to drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) Just came in from some errands There could be a more dismal day around here, I suppose. If there was, I'd rather be in Costa Rica. Ponding on roadways is causing vis issues - every vehicle sending up a huge plume of nastiness that is hard to see past. 34 and moderate RA Edited January 9 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Rte 422, Rte 22 and they are closing the main st here through Ebensburg. 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Still snowing 20240109_111908.mp4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Rte 422, Rte 22 and they are closing the main st here through Ebensburg. Yeah, this is a massive overperformer out your way.. what u got, like 6-8" or something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Most recent CTP forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Most recent CTP forecast. Wonder if they think my snow is gonna come tomorrow, after the RA moves on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertop Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Photos from my son in Altoona right now. Heavy rain is on the way for them soon. 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1.7", still all snow but 34 degrees so ratios lowering and compaction keeping the number down. A definite "win" for the interior on this one, if you like snow that is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, this is a massive overperformer out your way.. what u got, like 6-8" or something? With compaction and snow ratios I'm not sure how you make the number official. 4-6 from CTP is about on the money. I'm sure there's more going east on the Summit heading down to Blair County and up on Blue Knob 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 9 So.. down our way, even we started as sleet this morning for about an hour. All rain now. I love the actual vs. predicted temp though. 33 vs. 41.. love the CAD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 56 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Mostly rain and 33F now. Ice, snow, flooding rain, then snow tonite. Go mother nature. I'm living my love of weather vicariously through you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said: With compaction and snow ratios I'm not sure how you make the number official. 4-6 from CTP is about on the money. I'm sure there's more going east on the Summit heading down to Blair County and up on Blue Knob Yeah, seems we are fighting between snow, snow/rain now. 1.75" goes in the books for this one. 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenjacket Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Central Morris County NJ saw about 14 flakes before it went to rain. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Greenjacket said: Central Morris County NJ saw about 14 flakes before it went to rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Would ya look at that national hazards map. And I thought Christmas lights would all be done. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Greenjacket said: Central Morris County NJ saw about 14 flakes before it went to rain. I am used to seeing that … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 26 minutes ago, Weathertop said: Photos from my son in Altoona right now. Heavy rain is on the way for them soon. Does he go to PSU Altoona? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Kindly refrain from veering off topic. Are you insinuating that I can't drive straight? 🤪 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 9 Moderators Share Posted January 9 Temp 32F, DP at 22F. Virga has begun....see where temp lands after atmosphere moistens up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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