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January 5-7, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential


MesoscaleBanding

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Looks like the GEFS with this Euro run. 

 

Very noticeable changes at H5 when compared to 12z. Not a good look for amped solutions but we continue with caution.

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GFS is also against the 5 AI models.  

The 1/1/24 0Z run for all 5 AI models show a similar track as the GPDS and Euro show.....low from the gulf moving off the Mid Atlantic.

 

image.png.f81781382d8041103f7296799cb5bd61.png

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18 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

And the GFS 06Z creeps south (as compared to 0Z) before the transfer to the EC.

Indeed, again, when's the last time we could get modeling to agree with a storm track this far away from event time? If storm for our area is to fizzle out, let's hope it is a quick retreat so one need not waste time tracking 😜😊

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1 hour ago, RobB said:

Indeed, again, when's the last time we could get modeling to agree with a storm track this far away from event time? If storm for our area is to fizzle out, let's hope it is a quick retreat so one need not waste time tracking 😜😊

Amen

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37 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I kind of like the support from the EPS now, thisnis the 6z. A good chunk of the Miller B scenarios

eps_mslp_lows_conus_120.png

eps_mslp_lows_conus_126.png

eps_mslp_lows_conus_132.png

eps_mslp_lows_conus_144.png

 

29 minutes ago, Grace said:

6z EPS winter panels

 

Screenshot_20240101-085251_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20240101-085319_Chrome.jpg

At least there doesn't seem to be any support for this thing trending too far NW (famous last words 🤣)

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20 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

 

At least there doesn't seem to be any support for this thing trending too far NW (famous last words 🤣)

 

Don't say that 6 days out, lol. That trend is normally late in game if it occurs (under 84 hr normally). If this ends up in Iowa....we gonna have a talk. 😜

 

Edited by Grace
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4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Trending the right way though...

 

icon.gif

You beat me by two minutes! Was just going to say the same thing. 🙂

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