RobB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The RGEM keeping it grounded.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, Wnwniner said: Planning our snow response for the weekend-pavement temps seem to be marginal from what i can tell. Does the (much much smarter than me) hive mind agree for central Ohio? No clue how pavement temps vary. Air temps look to hover around 30-32 for Columbus until around 18z tomorrow then 33ish? Like you said, marginal seems good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, cperry29 said: No clue how pavement temps vary. Air temps look to hover around 30-32 for Columbus until around 18z tomorrow then 33ish? Like you said, marginal seems good lol. yea thinking we'll need to plan to salt everything, and scale back from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'll be outa the office soon so will not be here much if at all. RGEM says we have been NAM'd. Hopefully this is not the case with later model runs. Peace! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3-5 degrees difference in temps between RGEM and NAMs depending on location. Dunno which is right/wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 44 minutes ago, RobB said: I'll be outa the office soon so will not be here much if at all. RGEM says we have been NAM'd. Hopefully this is not the case with later model runs. Peace! 40 minutes ago, cperry29 said: 3-5 degrees difference in temps between RGEM and NAMs depending on location. Dunno which is right/wrong. typically I would error on the side of caution but the other hi-res models more back the NAM over the RGEM, but last year the RGEM was the unprecedented over performer above other short range models Edited January 5 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) GFS is somewhat of a stinkfest too, comparatively Edited January 5 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Wow NAM sure making things interesting around here. ILN taking notice and saying a WWA is possible. Quote Snow forecast updates will arrive later today... Recent trends in the guidance are pointing toward higher QPF over locations along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. Potential is certainly increasing for a focused area of accumulating snow 1-2" (locally higher amounts) across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky Saturday morning. Precipitation type and surface temperatures with heavier precipitation rates tend to remain as snow with lower surface temperatures, especially with the onset of precipitation occurring before sunrise. Wet, sticky dendrites would be capable of accumulating quickly, as long as precipitation rates remain moderate. An advisory is being considered for portions of northern Kentucky and southern Ohio, with accumulating snow potentially leading to travel impacts Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GFS is somewhat of a stinkfest too, comparatively CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12z 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 what's that?? lol 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hey color me interested. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Not expecting bad roads since it’s quite marginal. Shouldn’t have too much of an issue accumulating on colder surfaces though but that’s if it’s heavy enough initially so we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ukie is back on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Ukie is back on it. Getting interesting. I’ll be glued tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Get your snow brooms ready. We may have some snow to dust tomorrow in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Get your snow brooms ready. We may have some snow to dust tomorrow in Ohio. EFF that!!! I'll use my 175mph gasoline leaf blower!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 5 Meteorologist Share Posted January 5 Measured about 4.5" here. Seems like that snowband got a little further north than some of the models thought. Still have more snow coming up this way as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Get your snow brooms ready. We may have some snow to dust tomorrow in Ohio. They are updating this later with higher amounts and possible WWA. Quote Snow forecast updates will arrive later today... Recent trends in the guidance are pointing toward higher QPF over locations along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. Potential is certainly increasing for a focused area of accumulating snow 1-2" (locally higher amounts) across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky Saturday morning. Precipitation type and surface temperatures with heavier precipitation rates tend to remain as snow with lower surface temperatures, especially with the onset of precipitation occurring before sunrise. Wet, sticky dendrites would be capable of accumulating quickly, as long as precipitation rates remain moderate. An advisory is being considered for portions of northern Kentucky and southern Ohio, with accumulating snow potentially leading to travel impacts Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: They are updating this later with higher amounts and possible WWA. Ahh gotcha! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: I’m pleasantly surprised here in Youngstown that I’m even going to get a few inches it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 ILN update. Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Updated due to increase in snowfall amounts. Full AFD will be issued at normal time. Surface high pressure continues to shift east through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Winds remain light and out of the east and upper level clouds stream in from the southwest. These clouds are advecting into the region from a potent shortwave ejecting out of the Southern Plains. Dry air ahead of this system likely prevents precipitation onset until after midnight. Onset: As precipitation moves into the area, it will be entering a very dry air mass with above freezing temperatures above the surface. Some above freezing temperatures are forecast along and south of the Ohio River. With the dry air in place, evaporative cooling will take place as precipitation falls. As this process occurs, some mixed precipitation is possible (partially melted snowflakes or ice pellets) during the transition to saturation. Some rain is also possible across the south. Eventually, precipitation rates and favorable timing will help to allow for a mostly full transition to snow by the end near term period. More details on the snow accumulation in the short term period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH 6PM Saturday/... Adjustments were made to the previous forecast given the trends in the 06/12Z guidance. Complex scenario results in a lower than desired confidence for this event, but confidence had increased enough to ramp totals up across the area for this early afternoon update. The new snowfall amounts are sensitive to several factors lining up, and there is a possibility for values to trend lower/higher as confidence increases. Snow amounts: Snow total forecast was made using the assumption of higher snowfall rates and higher QPF, leading to a few hours of accumulating snow. These higher snowfall rates will help to increase snow ratios as wet flakes fall and quickly stack up. Given this event will unfold in around 6-10 hours, any transition to rain will greatly diminish snowfall amounts along the Ohio River and into southern Ohio. Snowfall rates will also help to decrease the potential for warm air advection to disrupt the below freezing temperatures in the lower troposphere. The highest amounts (2" with locally higher amounts) are currently stretched across portions of northern Kentucky into the middle Scioto Valley (Ross County). Timing: While some snow is possible during the early morning hours across the tri-state and northern Kentucky, the best snowfall rates are expected between 6 am and noon, stretching from northern Kentucky toward the Scioto Valley. This is the corridor of highest snowfall amounts (2" with locally higher amounts). Precipitation rates quickly decrease through the early afternoon and thermal profiles become less supportive of efficient accumulating snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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