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January 8-10, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential


snowlover2

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Decent lake enhanced signal on the western shore of Lake Michigan on the 12z Euro.  This is where the inferno December could pay off by giving a little extra boost from the lake compared to usual.  But it's still way too far out to get into those details.  Man, just wish this was only a day or two away!

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  • Meteorologist

I guess this is where the discussion is. I haven't seen ensembles be this impressive for a storm in my area ever. Especially the 12z EPS. Unfortunately it's coming at the absolute worst time for me. 

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If the first system on JAN 6-7 lays down much snow, gotta start wondering if enough remains on the ground to create a baroclinic zone affecting this systems track one way or the other. 

 

Screenshot_20231231-232422_Chrome.jpg

Edited by Grace
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1 minute ago, Grace said:

If the first system on JAN 6-7 lays down much snow, gotta start wondering if enough remains on the ground to create a baroclynic zone affecting this systems track one way or the other. 

 

Screenshot_20231231-232422_Chrome.jpg

When the 12z Euro came out and showed another thump here from this one i made a similar comment with the same thought in mind.

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34 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

When the 12z Euro came out and showed another thump here from this one i made a similar comment with the same thought in mind.

Well, now we get to see what the 0z Euro has up its sleeve. :classic_laugh:

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4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

With the first storm not laying down any snow cover it's no surprise that this one is warmer and rain.

That run is crazy. My house gets 1.5" Less than 35 miles to my north gets a foot. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Not surprising it switched from its 12z run.

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2 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

That run is crazy. My house gets 1.5" Less than 35 miles to my north gets a foot. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Not surprising it switched from its 12z run.

The writing was on the wall for this one when it hung back a piece of energy from the 5-7 storm and completely changed that one.

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16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

With the first storm not laying down any snow cover it's no surprise that this one is warmer and rain.

The snowcover thing is overrated imo.  It may come into play in certain situations but I sort of doubt it would this time.  It's more likely to be a factor if the synoptics favor a weak system.  The advective processes with a stronger system would likely overcome any preexisting snowpack. 

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A.I. Products really did this Upper Level Low deep. I'll post a couple in 2 separate posts.

#1

Screenshot_20240101-082902_Chrome2.thumb.jpg.bcf65007efc902b23c817cf4089eb945.jpg

Screenshot_20240101-082942_Chrome2.thumb.jpg.0abff0c6ac7d4505248628a47af2585b.jpg

Screenshot_20240101-083020_Chrome2.thumb.jpg.252029e53368f262f94485eedf02a48a.jpg

Screenshot_20240101-083052_Chrome2.thumb.jpg.595fcb0026d388405e8454752eb64321.jpg

 

Now, there are a couple similar TO GFS, & Euro but there are zero as far west as CMC...TIFWIW.

Edited by Grace
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