JayPSU Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Hmmm, I’ll be honest, I kinda gave up on this one and haven’t been paying attention…are those showing front end, or backend snows? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, JayPSU said: Hmmm, I’ll be honest, I kinda gave up on this one and haven’t been paying attention…are those showing front end, or backend snows? From IL through OH it's all a variation of front and backside snow showers. Areas west of that is all snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 No front-end snows for most of Ohio on the HRRR or the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) turned in to a healthy storm Edited January 8 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 more members are involved than are posting, so think this thread will heat up for them as the day goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 no doing the whole front end/back end separation here so keep that in mind for expectations in the rainy areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: no doing the whole front end/back end separation here so keep that in mind for expectations in the rainy areas Warm air will win out with this one in marginal areas because it always does. 😝 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) 4 minutes ago, beaver56 said: Warm air will win out with this one in marginal areas because it always does. 😝 I've never been a fan of front end hits due to the rain washing it away within hours, but does look like surface cold air will hang on longer than models initially anticipated before the monsoon rains Edited January 8 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) maybe someone else who understands LES better can answer this but why wouldnt this be a setup where the lakes arent absolutely ripping, this would seem to me the perfect setup for lake MI as the low is coming down with fierce NW-SE winds Edited January 8 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) there are dozens of both GEFS and EPS members which show 2-4'' of front end here, could be low resolution issues, but the 00z EPS actually has a mean of 3'' here purely front end Edited January 8 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 GFS has been locked in on this bad boy, no changes at all except that streamer on the northside of Chicago has been sinking south a little 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 33 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GFS has been locked in on this bad boy, no changes at all except that streamer on the northside of Chicago has been sinking south a little I recall GFS performing well last winter, and think it was early to the party for the 5-7 storm, too, right? Is GFS going to be the one leading the charge this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 It looks like I’m going to have to get the dog up earlier tomorrow morning for us to appreciate the 1-3” before it gets washed away later. But this storm will be the most the puppy has seen since we’ve got him and that makes it worth the washout. For an El Niño winter, it sure is starting off wetter than I had expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 In the last two days, NWS has lowered Wednesday’s predicted max from 46 to 40 to now 37. I hope this trend continues, and I hope the higher levels are below freezing. LOL. The wind looks like the big story, as well as CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 hours ago, Cary67 said: Will resuscitate this thread briefly. Should receive a front end thump later this evening of 1-2". Best areas remain further south for heavier accums. Main event deformation band will swing through Tue morning-afternoon. Hi res models indicate even far NW burbs of Chicago could be dry slotted and go to drizzle or rain before late switch to snow. Big winners should be Dubuque to Madison WI line. Hope for 3-4" total. Under WWA tonight and WSW for tomorrow. WSW probably issued in case a wobble SE brings heavier snow band back in play. Editing: 12Z HRRR and most globals have ticked back SE a bit. Bringing NW burbs into play for heavier totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: turned in to a healthy storm And, as usual, St. Louis is just a little too far south to get in the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 20 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Editing: 12Z HRRR and most globals have ticked back SE a bit. Bringing NW burbs into play for heavier totals Good luck there. Don't remember if I posted a call here, but at another board I went with 3-4" for mby, majority on the front end. Been some model flailing around with handling that front end snow but all in all, I still like that call for here. Not gonna actually have that on the ground by the end of course as there will be plenty of melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Good luck there. Don't remember if I posted a call here, but at another board I went with 3-4" for mby, majority on the front end. Been some model flailing around with handling that front end snow but all in all, I still like that call for here. Not gonna actually have that on the ground by the end of course as there will be plenty of melting. Thx. Haven't fired up the blower much at all the last two years. Will see if it still works. Hoping for 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Thx. Haven't fired up the blower much at all the last two years. Will see if it still works. Hoping for 6-8" I used mine once last winter - 12/22. It is in good working order though and will hopefully be put to use this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I used mine once last winter - 12/22. It is in good working order though and will hopefully be put to use this weekend. Would favor your position for the weekend storm with more cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 LOL - I know this isn't all snow & the TT frozen precip algorithm is screwed up, but it does show that there may be a decent thump of frozen precip across Ohio late tonight/tomorrow morning... 18z 3km NAM: 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Would favor your position for the weekend storm with more cold air available. Would be lying if I said I'm not starting to get just a little excited. Will have to watch track though as farther west could wrap in enough warm air to make it concrete snow for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) DTX gonna DTX.... Looks like DTX isn't really buying into the burst of heavy snow out in front of this. They've lowered projected totals to basically 1-4" for most of their forecast area. Edited January 8 by MidMichiganWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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