January 8-10, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential

[snowlover2]

[Hoosier]

974 mb on an ensemble mean at 5 days out is fairly impressive.

[Hiramite]

1/5/24 12Z Low Party Tracker:

My observations:

The GFS, which has held the track fairly steady the last couple of days has been joined by the Euro and the Ukie!!   The Canadian is about 200 miles east.

Pressures, for the most part, have increased slightly for all models.  Euro still the strongest. 

(And for those following along at home at not getting the exact same Low placement, when there is an elongated LP, I use the Regional View on Pivotal and the wind barbs to locate the "L".  I also do a bit of smoothing of the track.)

 

0Z run below.

Quote

 

Edited January 5 by Hiramite

[bigben89]

4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

1/5/24 12Z Low Party Tracker:

My observations:

The GFS, which has held the track fairly steady the last couple of days has been joined by the Euro and the Ukie!!   The Canadian is about 200 miles east.

Pressures, for the most part, have increased slightly for all models.  Euro still the strongest. 

OH CANADA!

[Hoosier]

Evaporative cooling in action.  Watch the 850 mb temps fall below 0C east/northeast of the 850 mb low.

[Organicforecasting]

1 hour ago, Hiramite said:

1/5/24 12Z Low Party Tracker:

My observations:

The GFS, which has held the track fairly steady the last couple of days has been joined by the Euro and the Ukie!!   The Canadian is about 200 miles east.

Pressures, for the most part, have increased slightly for all models.  Euro still the strongest. 

(And for those following along at home at not getting the exact same Low placement, when there is an elongated LP, I use the Regional View on Pivotal and the wind barbs to locate the "L".  I also do a bit of smoothing of the track.)

 

0Z run below.

 

Love the MW/GL version of the 'Clapper Tracker'!!

[Organicforecasting]

LSX

Spoiler

Monday - Tuesday Night)

The focus for early next week is on the impending winter storm that
will impact the region and the potential for significant snowfall
across the area. This may sound like a bit of a broken record, but
not a ton has changed compared to how this storm looked even 3-4
days ago. There has been fairly remarkable consistency over this
time period with respect to the track of the 850-hPa cyclone and the
strength of the mid/upper level trough. There has been a
subtle/slight shift to the northwest, but fairly minor this far out
on the order of about 50 miles. The Hurricane Hunters will be flying
into the system to sample the storm off of Alaska later today, which
should be ingested for tonight`s 0Z model runs.

All the ingredients remain in place for significant (5+") snowfall
across the region, with confidence gradually increasing due to the
aforementioned consistency of the EPS/GEFS suite and the decrease in
spread of the surface and 850-hPa low track compared to 24 hours
ago. For instance, the spread in the GEFS for the position of the
surface low at 12Z Tuesday is about 200 miles less than this time
yesterday. The EPS has also decreased over the past 24 hours. The
consensus continues to highlight the most likely track of the 850-
hPa low track up I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois. This track
would continue to favor the KCOU>>KUIN axis and points to the
northwest for the heaviest snowfall based on previous research.
While a plurality of GEFS/EPS members show this type of track,
there are some further northwest (which would bring more rain to
the area vs. snow) while others are further southeast. Even subtle
(~25 miles) shifts of the track of the system could have big
impacts for a swath of the area and be the difference in several
inches of snow in either direction.

In addition to the uncertainty with track, the thermal profile
remains within the boundary layer remains a question mark - but
particularly with respect to the Monday afternoon/night period.
There are big differences between the EPS/GEFS with respect to how
much wetbulbing occurs with the warm air advection wing of
precipitation. The GFS/GEFS is colder due to stronger wetbulbing,
and therefore, has more snowfall especially the further northwest
go you. Meanwhile, the ECMWF/EPS is warmer and has more rain
through Monday night. For reference, the GEFS has probabilities
for at least 3" of snow just through Monday night of 50-70%
whereas the EPS is 20-30%. The GEFS is also more widespread with
the accumulating snowfall compared to the EPS (more confined to
northeast Missouri only). While there is still some concern
continuing into Tuesday as the deformation zone comes through with
respect to temperatures, the forcing for ascent appears very
strong. Therefore, snow should be the dominant precipitation type,
it is just a matter of WHERE (and how much). Isentropic charts on
both the GFS and ECMWF show a well-defined cyclonic portion of
the warm conveyor belt (TROWAL airstream) moving through the
northwestern half of the CWA. Latest NAEFS 850-hPa u (west-east
component) wind probabilities are also near the 1st percentile of
climatology. This indicates very anomalous easterly winds at that
level which has been found to be highly correlated to high QPF
events in the TROWAL of extratropical cyclones.

 

[Grace]

Just a little different 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Front-end thumps are a fun consolation prize for those that miss out on the deform band - 12z Euro had a good one & here is the latest GFS...

[Organicforecasting]

A reminder of the hurricane hunters flying in the system and here is the results when the data starts flowing...

 

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwprod/realtime/hourly/t22z/hly.023.gif

[SnowloverSid]

A pleasant surprise: snow has begun here in St. Louis, and it is coming down pretty impressively. I am hoping for our best accumulation since last January, around the 25th. We haven’t had snow on the ground for 24 hours straight since February 2022.

[MidMichiganWx]

Local mets all over this one. Any Michigan people here? Oooof

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, Hiramite said:

1/5/24 12Z Low Party Tracker:

My observations:

The GFS, which has held the track fairly steady the last couple of days has been joined by the Euro and the Ukie!!   The Canadian is about 200 miles east.

Pressures, for the most part, have increased slightly for all models.  Euro still the strongest. 

(And for those following along at home at not getting the exact same Low placement, when there is an elongated LP, I use the Regional View on Pivotal and the wind barbs to locate the "L".  I also do a bit of smoothing of the track.)

 

0Z run below.

 

Can the ICON be added here?

[Icewoz]

1 hour ago, MidMichiganWx said:

Local mets all over this one. Any Michigan people here? Oooof

Royal Oak here. I think we're going to get too much of a mix to make this worthwhile in SEMI.

[snowlover2]

[CIWeather]

My God, over half the state of Illinois would be shut down!  

[snowlover2]

0z Ukie appears to be more like GFS.

[snowlover2]

[Hiramite]

7 hours ago, CIWeather said:

My God, over half the state of Illinois would be shut down!  

So folks aren't confused, this should be posted in the Jan 13-15 thread.  I hid your other similar post.

[Hiramite]

1/6/24 0z Low Party Tracker:

My Obs:

Tracks and strengths very similar to yesterday’s 12z run.  (* is lowest pressure)

Maybe one  more LPT this afternoon then on to the next storm.

 

Yesterday's 12z below.

Quote

 

Edited January 6 by Hiramite

[Wnwniner]

whats with the canadian being so confused? 

[Hiramite]

13 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

whats with the canadian being so confused? 

idk, maybe it's the guy who's plotting the track.

We'll see if things tighten up for the 12z.

[CIWeather]

Our storm is named Finn 😂

[MidMichiganWx]

12z trending NW 🙄

[Organicforecasting]