January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Poco]

 

13 minutes ago, GregRups said:

 

 

 

[JDClapper]

She is tucked... before chasing convection .. 

[WeatherFlash]

Just now, JDClapper said:

She is tucked... before chasing convection .. 

Potent 

[Rickrd]

NAM 12k and 3k. Not bad. 

Edited January 6 by Rickrd

[JDClapper]

Subtle changes .. little warmer SW PA.. little drier NW PA .. little slower .. nothing terribly significant changed 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Subtle changes .. little warmer SW PA.. little drier NW PA .. little slower .. nothing terribly significant changed 

Some of the models seem to be backing off of the  back end stuff on Sunday, I think ?

[Rickrd]

Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Some of the models seem to be backing off of the  back end stuff on Sunday, I think ?

You always like the backend, don’t ya?

[JDClapper]

Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Some of the models seem to be backing off of the  back end stuff on Sunday, I think ?

not NAM lol still snowing here at 10am, and moderately.. put us over a foot on the snow map.  😮 

[MaineJay]

Pretty good SW shift with the TROWAL.

NAM3

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Just now, JDClapper said:

not NAM lol still snowing here at 10am, and moderately.. put us over a foot on the snow map.  😮 

Wow, yea baby. Always luved that. 

[Rickrd]

Just now, MaineJay said:

Pretty good SW shift with the TROWAL.

NAM3

Ahhh. Enlighten me. That’s out of my league. 

[Wtkidz]

3 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

She is tucked... before chasing convection .. 

Wonder if it will happen in real life????

[clm]

Just now, Wtkidz said:

Wonder if it will happen in real life????

For me it will.

[MaineJay]

Just now, Rickrd said:

Ahhh. Enlighten me. That’s out of my league. 

 

That punch of warm moist air at 850mb. Best banding would be on that nose. Can cause sleet at times, depending on the surface and 925mb temps.

[Rickrd]

Just now, MaineJay said:

 

That punch of warm moist air at 850mb. Best banding would be on that nose. Can cause sleet at times, depending on the surface and 925mb temps.

Thanks MJ. I need to take some classes. 

[MaineJay]

Look at those dew points creating a precipitation forcefield.

Trend 

[Blizz]

NAM 3k really scares me with that mixing surging so far north.... I'm not sure I really believe the snow maps... but maybe someone can explain it differently

[JDClapper]

3k trend.. the push is on up in Maine.  Losing some accums PITT and points SW.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

After my 2 year hiatus at the clinic where I did not have access to internet,  I must say the model performance does not seem to have improved. My God , this is a Miller A. Maybe they haven't seen one is so long that they don't have any data on, wtf. Miller B's with their transfers wreak havoc.  No vorts, late energies showing up from Bisonville also . Not much of that here. Miller A and a high. And look at the craziness right till the end. 

Edited January 6 by RTC3-LAST CHANCE

[Poco]

Sometimes models will take areas of very high moisture especially on the nose of any waa advection and they are only formulas 

so at a certain point it’s gonna go from black to white, in real life nowcasting situation there would be some mixing until the temps crash overnight on Saturday in that area 

also stop worrying about every single thing that can go wrong, it’s a miserable existence.  It either is or isn’t going do exactly what you want, so there’s no need to stress out about snow.  Especially since it’s gonna snow and be the first decent storm here in 3 years.  Cheers all

Edited January 6 by Poco

[MaineJay]

Just now, Blizz said:

NAM 3k really scares me with that mixing surging so far north.... I'm not sure I really believe the snow maps... but maybe someone can explain it differently

It's that TROWAL, always flirting with mixing. Hard to know if there's a sneaky warm layer as well.  I imagine there's an AFD somewhere that references a laterally translating band.

[Penn State]

So.. Probably a stupid question.. but what kind of flakes do you expect tomorrow? Assuming the pancake flakes since it’ll be warm (relatively) and wet. 

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

3k trend.. the push is on up in Maine.  Losing some accums PITT and points SW.

Miller A type storms historically keep my area at arms length, so more trimming of totals in Maine is likely, in my humble opinion.

[Rickrd]

1 minute ago, Penn State said:

So.. Probably a stupid question.. but what kind of flakes do you expect tomorrow? Assuming the pancake flakes since it’ll be warm (relatively) and wet. 

Seriously? I’m expecting globulars.  😜

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

Seriously? I’m expecting globulars.  😜

These are things I think about lol.. The pancake flakes are my favorite.