January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Poco]

2 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

🤓 nerd 🤓 but hi pokie poc

 

[SnowloverSid]

3 hours ago, Snowadelphia said:

One man’s suppression is another man’s jackpot.

I remember a similar post from JDRenken or MDBlueRidge from about 8 years ago on Accuwx forums — I was in the Three-Day Overcast/ Virga Zone with that storm, just like in January 1996 and February 1983. I am in St. Louis now, so I can be flexible as to where the snow ends up.

[PA road DAWG]

19 minutes ago, SnowloverSid said:

I remember a similar post from JDRenken or MDBlueRidge from about 8 years ago on Accuwx forums — I was in the Three-Day Overcast/ Virga Zone with that storm, just like in January 1996 and February 1983. I am in St. Louis now, so I can be flexible as to where the snow ends up.

January 2016 will never be forgotten 

[PA road DAWG]

Euro went 💥 

[StretchCT]

Good looking storm on the Euro.  Plowable snow for most, even NYC/LI.  Double digits inland. SNJ gets left out.

[Penn State]

14 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Euro went 💥 

Yes sir! 

[PA road DAWG]

[Pghsnow]

[Tater]

We've been getting a few lazy flakes drifting down for the past few hours. I've heard it said repeatedly that snow breeds snow, so I'm expecting that to pay off this weekend.

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, Pghsnow said:

Member #46 please.. 

[Wtkidz]

Sterling’s  pearls of wisdom for us in the Southern Mid-Atlantic 

Quote

A vigorous shortwave in the southern stream will track across Texas
toward the northern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. This will cause
an area of low pressure to form along the Gulf Coast. This area
of low pressure will track northeastward along with its parent
shortwave during the day Saturday into Saturday night, rapidly
intensifying as it does so. While there is still considerable
spread with respect to track six days out, model guidance
generally has the primary low associated with this system
tracking somewhere between the eastern Ohio Valley and the
Carolina coastline, with the majority of guidance showing a
track just off to our south and east. While uncertainty with
respect to track and resultant impacts remains high, the
potential is there for locations to the east of the mountains to
receive their first major snowstorm in two years.

Ensemble guidance (especially the EPS) showed a significant
increase in probabilities for snowfall across the region with the
00z cycle last night. At the moment, the greatest chance for
significant snow appears to be near and west of the Blue Ridge,
while lesser but non-zero probabilities for significant
snowfall exist further east. The track of the low will be
critical, and an all rain scenario is still on the table to the
east of the Blue Ridge. If that were to occur, there could
potentially be issues with flooding as well. We`ll continue to
keep an eye on this system over the upcoming week, as the
potential is there for it to have a significant impact across
the entire forecast area.

 

[Wtkidz]

6 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Member #46 please.. 

well 44and 45 work for me. 

[Rickrd]

GEFS and Euro ensembles look great

[Penn State]

11 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

GEFS and Euro ensembles look great

Definitely.. EPS is perfect for me.

EPS

GEFS

CMCE 

[Penn State]

WPC Forecast - Day 6

[Penn State]

Any takeaways from the 84 hour NAM? Other than.. looking forward to someone getting NAM’d in future runs? Lol

[LUCC]

Anyone have the dgex? 👀

[PA road DAWG]

I’m trying to play out scenarios in my head on how this shafts NEPA.  Very plausible 

[StretchCT]

9 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I’m trying to play out scenarios in my head on how this shafts NEPA.  Very plausible 

12z gfs 

[MaineJay]

EFI

[Chris2333]

10 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I’m trying to play out scenarios in my head on how this shafts NEPA.  Very plausible 

Meanwhile I’m doing the rain/snow line scenario just east of Philly…. Not like it’s happened before

 

[Rickrd]

Couple things go for us. 
1. the storm track pattern the past month has been steady with fair amount of precip (1”+ for most on this thread). 
2. -NAO is not a monster and shouldn’t cause suppression. 
 

[Chris2333]

2 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Couple things go for us. 
1. the storm track pattern the past month has been steady with fair amount of precip (1”+ for most on this thread). 
2. -NAO is not a monster and shouldn’t cause suppression. 
 

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/a67cc109-2ec7-4777-91b9-4c6eb8f5467c

ok I’ve been gone too long and forgot how to insert gifs…

Edited January 1 by Chris2333

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: As we head into the second half of the week the
pattern will be evolving into a -PNA...with trofing establishing
itself over the western CONUS. This will tend to offer frequent
chances for precip. While the antecedent air mass is not
frigid...it will be sufficient to support snow and especially so
if the timing of high pressure to our north remains favorable.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated until the
weekend. Accumulating snow remains possible.

Forecast Details: Fairly quiet to start Wed...with increasing
clouds and WAA ahead of the approaching upper trof. Trof axis
will cross the region Thu. Gusty winds and mtn snow showers are
likely...but will have to keep an eye on how well the northern
and southern streams phase. If they remain somewhat separate
features...an inverted trof could develop and provide a focus
for more sustained snow shower activity near the coast. This is
a low confidence forecast.

CAA takes over Thu night and continues into Sat. The forecast
for confluence to remain stout north of New England continues on
the 01.12z guidance. A a result most guidance has a robust high
pressure in place over southern Quebec ahead of developing low
pressure. Ensemble guidance is not entirely sold on the event
locally...with a fair number of members remaining south of the
forecast area thanks mostly to squeezing the system east as it
runs into high pressure. Cluster analysis via DESI shows that
the most wintry outcomes occur with a stronger S/WV trof. Right
now that is only about 1 in 5 members...and so sticking with NBM
PoP of low likely/high chance along the MA border seems
reasonable at this range.

 

[Snowadelphia]

14 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

Meanwhile I’m doing the rain/snow line scenario just east of Philly…. Not like it’s happened before

 

Usually sets up right around the turnpike/476. R/S line obviously doesn’t sit still with most storms either. Depends on the flow/dynamics as to whether or not you sit in the mix for awhile. Been awhile since we’ve had one set up east of the city and not west.

Edited January 1 by Snowadelphia