January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Organicforecasting]

21 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Off to sling martinis, cosmos, and manhattans to pay for the next big house project. Ya'll play nice now....💩

I'm getting partial to mules lately.

[WeatherFlash]

2 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said:

I'm getting partial to mules lately.

If im not doing beers or ciders this is my next perfer go to 

[NJ Snowman]

5 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

I am in LH too (Stirling) - we are like the ultimate battleground. We get 1" snow/sleet when Morristown gets 3-4 inches sometimes

You may know me.  I was a Long Hill police officer for just over 25 years, retired last February.    

[Burr]

Composite map of ‘expected’ nws snowfall totals

[TLChip]

13 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

You are located where?

I’m up against Blue Marsh game lands. Here’s a really bad map of where I think I typically see the different winter weather line. That yellow line is typically elevated roads (minor) but when we get light snow that melts, it tends to cover. It’s typically drifted over when other roads aren’t. It’s where I start to see ice accretion first when heading home. No science just obs, never stopped to measure. I don’t think people can creep on this address right..

Edited January 5 by TLChip

[Undertakerson2.0]

32 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Off to sling martinis, cosmos, and manhattans to pay for the next big house project. Ya'll play nice now....💩

I'll drink to that. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

12 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said:

I'm getting partial to mules lately.

VSOP Cognac here

[mikeysed]

8 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

You may know me.  I was a Long Hill police officer for just over 25 years, retired last February.    

I might. I've been in town a long time as well. I am actually heading up to Crystal Springs tomorrow morning and will be reporting from there. I am thinking 4" in town here, and 10" up there.

[jbrumberg]

Some new snow graphics: 

[chaser915]

TWC is on the scene in beautiful Cambridge MA.

[JDClapper]

[Poco]

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

3 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I’m up against Blue Marsh game lands. Here’s a really bad map of where I think I typically see the different winter weather line. That yellow line is typically elevated roads (minor) but when we get light snow that melts, it tends to cover. It’s typically drifted over when other roads aren’t. It’s where I start to see ice accretion first when heading home. No science just obs, never stopped to measure. I don’t think people can creep on this address right..

😀. So kinda north of Reading metro i think. Pretty flat area overall. We tend to get more moisture from the ocean, and 2 mountain ranges- with the Blues to the nw being pretty big. LV sits in a bowl between the 2. So  2 pretty different climo regions, and amounts usually reflect that . 

[Poco]

Buddy works at a ski resort by Stroudsburg

tood me just got the call about cleaning up the sidewalks and lot etc.  and to be preppped for 9-15” per resort 

nothing like third hand snow forecasts, make sure to up the total and spread the word 🤣🤣🤣

[StretchCT]

5 minutes ago, jbrumberg said:

Some new snow graphics: 

Inside benchmark, with a warm winter so far, easterlies… rain at the coast. Some things don’t change. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Just now, Poco said:

Buddy works at a ski resort by Stroudsburg

tood me just got the call about cleaning up the sidewalks and lot etc.  and to be preppped for 9-15” per resort 

nothing like third hand snow forecasts, make sure to up the total and spread the word 🤣🤣🤣

I think it is spot on Poc. 

[bigben89]

PIT ain’t buying the NAM.

[StretchCT]

My middle seater failed to show. That, Wi-Fi and a storm to track. How could a flight be better. Screaming kid is sleeping. 

[NJ Snowman]

9 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

I might. I've been in town a long time as well. I am actually heading up to Crystal Springs tomorrow morning and will be reporting from there. I am thinking 4" in town here, and 10" up there.

I'll take the 4" of snow, better than a heavy rain.  Don't need the river flooding, especially in your area again.

[StretchCT]

Upton introduces a new strategy of how we can get snow at the coast. Don’t give up y’all. Storms tend to arrive early.

Spoiler

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the last several days, models have been forecasting low
pressure to move out of the southeast U.S. on Saturday, passing
to the south and east of the area Saturday night into Sunday.
Changes with the latest set of guidance have been generally
minor with subtle shifts in the low track. The trend has been
for a slightly farther track to the north over the last 24h.

With retreating high pressure across eastern Canada and strong
easterly flow developing late Saturday, coastal locations will
see a warming boundary layer, and eventually a warm nose aloft
in the southerly flow. Airmass is very marginal for a period of
snow at the coast, but inland a different story with the bulk
of the liquid falling as snow. Liquid equivalents for this event
are generally 0.7 to 1.0", highest across interior NE NJ.

The heaviest precipitation will occur on the front end of the
system Saturday evening, courtesy of deep-layered lift. The
primary lifting mechanisms include an upper jet working in from
the south and strong 85-70h frontogenetic. In fact, should this
precipitation move in earlier than currently forecast, coastal
locations could see a burst of moderate/heavy snow, especially
for western LI and the NYC/NJ metro. These areas have the
potential for 1 to 3 inches. The SW CT coast looks cold enough
to support advisory level snow of 2 to 4 inches. For interior
NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior SW CT, looking for
anywhere from 5 to 10 inches, highest across western portions of
Orange County NY. These locations have all been updated to a
winter storm warning. For interior sections of SE CT, confidence
is a bit lower to reach warning level criteria (6") due to a
warming boundary layer in a strong easterly flow off the
Atlantic. So for the time, will stay with a watch for this area.
Once gain, much of the heavy precipitation will be on the front
end, should this occur even earlier, it`s possible totals will
be increased at the coast; vice versa, lower totals if the
onset is delayed. As the mid levels dry out, the second half of
the night will feature light rain/drizzle at the coast, with
snow possibly mixed with rain and/or drizzle inland.

East winds will ramp up late Saturday afternoon/early evening,
15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, highest at the coast.

As the low pulls out to the east on Sunday, there will likely
be some light precipitation that goes back to snow even at the
coast, but with temperatures above freezing, any accumulations
would be minor. Winds will back around to the N/NE Sunday on
the backside of the low, with gusts dropping off to around 20
mph.

 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Inside benchmark, with a warm winter so far, easterlies… rain at the coast. Some things don’t change. 

Yup, but for inland, that track is gold. Luv that track for LV, and the hell with certain models. We may mix a bit, but moisture is abundant/ under modeled. High isn’t great, but it doesn’t suck either. And i am located in upper Lehigh ,with decent elevation. Its every nan for himself after not seeing snow for 2 years😂

[StretchCT]

Really liking some of these new graphics in the forecast briefing.  The Qpf being under an inch is keeping amounts down in the interior.  I’m suspicious of those amounts  as we only seem to get hit with high qpf storms lately and it’s sucking up some good moisture. Maybe speed and that it’s a thump first then lighter stuff?

 

Edited January 5 by StretchCT

[Phillyfan]

52 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I’m typically a degree or so cooler than my parents closer to reading. There’s these two hills between in 7 miles and it’s almost always snowier or icier. Few years they had rain and I had a decent amount of zr rain adding up. 

co sign always cooler out here compared to Reading.

[Phillyfan]

39 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I’m up against Blue Marsh game lands. Here’s a really bad map of where I think I typically see the different winter weather line. That yellow line is typically elevated roads (minor) but when we get light snow that melts, it tends to cover. It’s typically drifted over when other roads aren’t. It’s where I start to see ice accretion first when heading home. No science just obs, never stopped to measure. I don’t think people can creep on this address right..

I could possibly figure it out. I'm located just off the map...

[unluckystars13]

45 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I’m up against Blue Marsh game lands. Here’s a really bad map of where I think I typically see the different winter weather line. That yellow line is typically elevated roads (minor) but when we get light snow that melts, it tends to cover. It’s typically drifted over when other roads aren’t. It’s where I start to see ice accretion first when heading home. No science just obs, never stopped to measure. I don’t think people can creep on this address right..

My parents are in bernville