January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

25 minutes ago, tool483 said:

Definitely scooping up some gulf moisture, That is a good thing.

 

850 moisture transport

In addition to the pattern repeatedly over producing moisture- wise, this is a long lost Miller A. Has to have good juice.

[Organicforecasting]

11 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

My town in Morris County, NJ has been right on the cutoff line on almost every model.  Big snow or nothing, preparing for disappointment but hoping for something.  🤞

 

As a STS veteran, I approve this gif!!!

[mikeysed]

12 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

My town in Morris County, NJ has been right on the cutoff line on almost every model.  Big snow or nothing, preparing for disappointment but hoping for something.  🤞

 

What town are you in sounds like right by me.

[JDClapper]

Latest CTP forecast.

[Eaglesfan82]

2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

If you think this is bad - wait until RTC3-LC takes over on night shift

 

One of my favorite movies .”I’m disinclined to acquiesce your request”

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, JDClapper said:

Latest CTP forecast.

They playing it cute. I can't stand that product - at times, they change it every 90 minutes or so. LOL

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, Eaglesfan82 said:

One of my favorite movies .”I’m disinclined to acquiesce your request”

And thirdly, the code is more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules.

[JDClapper]

Decent write up from CTP too!

 

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... *Quick-hitting winter storm to bring plowable to heavy snow to Central PA Saturday

 

Expanding WAA precip shield will quickly overrun retreating cold Canadian air across central PA Saturday morning through midday. Strong WAA at onset which when combined with impressive synoptic lift will result in a front end heavy snow thump spreading south to north from around midday/early afternoon through the evening. Snow should take on more of a deformation type band later in the event as low tracks from Delmarva to off the NJ coast. HREF shows a strong signal for 1-2 in/hr rates within the max WAA/FGEN zone which will remain a key factor for storm total accumulations. Warm air should nose into the far southeast zones behind strong SSE flow at 850mb and result in a mix/transition zone along and southeast of I81/I78. Snow should be winding down a few hours either side of 00Z Sun with a main accumulation window of ~12 hours. As snow ends, there could be a period of fzdz. This relatively narrow/short duration window stresses the importance of realizing the heavy snowfall rates. Some sleet or even freezing rain is possible over parts of the southern tier, but felt it was better to emphasize snow as it will be the primary ptype impacting driving conditions and travel (disruptions).

 

We upgraded to a winter storm warning over most of the previous watch area with accumulations in the 4 to 8 inch range. This range falls nicely within the 25th/75th percentile. Higher amounts closing in on double digits are shaded toward the northeastern part of the CWA. The difficulty in achieving higher end amounts is the again the somewhat short duration, but if max rates can be realized for a longer timeframe then it`s concievable that a 10" report could be in the cards. Conversely, there are some hints that warmer air makes its way as far north as I80, but would put lower end amounts more in play. It`s still a tough call at this point, and we will have two more shifts to refine the forecast.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

15 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

My town in Morris County, NJ has been right on the cutoff line on almost every model.  Big snow or nothing, preparing for disappointment but hoping for something.  🤞

 

Morris County has to be a brutal call. Further north, but closer to the warm ocean.

[telejunkie]

Off to sling martinis, cosmos, and manhattans to pay for the next big house project. Ya'll play nice now....💩

[Burr]

Submitted without additional commentary.

[Burr]

Just now, telejunkie said:

Off to sling martinis, cosmos, and manhattans to pay for the next big house project. Ya'll play nice now....💩

Sling a Rye Manhattan with three Luxardos thisaways, please!

[TLChip]

1 minute ago, Burr said:

Submitted without additional commentary.

I get it… I wouldn’t want to call Berks or Leigh, been the battleground the past 18 hours. 

[JDClapper]

Juice

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Just now, TLChip said:

I get it… I wouldn’t want to call Berks or Leigh, been the battleground the past 18 hours. 

Yup. Many times once Reading turns over , Lehigh is next- pretty quickly. But not always. Many of the biggins the line stopped. Temp wise Reading is a touch warmer. Really track dependent, and i like this track.

[ZLearned]

Here’s what they are saying for us northerners. Said that amounts are likely to increase to the north with the north shift. 

[TLChip]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Yup. Many times once Reading turns over , Lehigh is next- pretty quickly. But not always. Many of the biggins the line stopped. Temp wise Reading is a touch warmer. Really track dependent, and i like this track.

I’m typically a degree or so cooler than my parents closer to reading. There’s these two hills between in 7 miles and it’s almost always snowier or icier. Few years they had rain and I had a decent amount of zr rain adding up. 

[NJ Snowman]

18 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

What town are you in sounds like right by me.

Millington

[NJ Snowman]

20 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said:

As a STS veteran, I approve this gif!!!

Marine veteran here, Semper fi!!

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

4 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I’m typically a degree or so cooler than my parents closer to reading. There’s these two hills between in 7 miles and it’s almost always snowier or icier. Few years they had rain and I had a decent amount of zr rain adding up. 

You are located where?

[mikeysed]

3 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

Millington

I am in LH too (Stirling) - we are like the ultimate battleground. We get 1" snow/sleet when Morristown gets 3-4 inches sometimes

[NJ Snowman]

17 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Morris County has to be a brutal call. Further north, but closer to the warm ocean.

And down at the most southern tip of the county.

[mikeysed]

Does anyone have an 18z GFS with Kuchera map for our area? I just got back home, skimming through and don't see it

[TheComet]

20 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Decent write up from CTP too!

 

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... *Quick-hitting winter storm to bring plowable to heavy snow to Central PA Saturday

 

Expanding WAA precip shield will quickly overrun retreating cold Canadian air across central PA Saturday morning through midday. Strong WAA at onset which when combined with impressive synoptic lift will result in a front end heavy snow thump spreading south to north from around midday/early afternoon through the evening. Snow should take on more of a deformation type band later in the event as low tracks from Delmarva to off the NJ coast. HREF shows a strong signal for 1-2 in/hr rates within the max WAA/FGEN zone which will remain a key factor for storm total accumulations. Warm air should nose into the far southeast zones behind strong SSE flow at 850mb and result in a mix/transition zone along and southeast of I81/I78. Snow should be winding down a few hours either side of 00Z Sun with a main accumulation window of ~12 hours. As snow ends, there could be a period of fzdz. This relatively narrow/short duration window stresses the importance of realizing the heavy snowfall rates. Some sleet or even freezing rain is possible over parts of the southern tier, but felt it was better to emphasize snow as it will be the primary ptype impacting driving conditions and travel (disruptions).

 

We upgraded to a winter storm warning over most of the previous watch area with accumulations in the 4 to 8 inch range. This range falls nicely within the 25th/75th percentile. Higher amounts closing in on double digits are shaded toward the northeastern part of the CWA. The difficulty in achieving higher end amounts is the again the somewhat short duration, but if max rates can be realized for a longer timeframe then it`s concievable that a 10" report could be in the cards. Conversely, there are some hints that warmer air makes its way as far north as I80, but would put lower end amounts more in play. It`s still a tough call at this point, and we will have two more shifts to refine the forecast.

Nice, complex setup indeed. The writeup couldn't make that clearer:

 

Quote

but if max rates can be realized for a longer timeframe then it`s concievable that a 10" report could be in the cards. Conversely, there are some hints that warmer air makes its way as far north as I80, but would put lower end amounts more in play. It`s still a tough call at this point, and we will have two more shifts to refine the forecast.

 

[TheComet]

19 minutes ago, Burr said:

Submitted without additional commentary.

I stand by my prediction of 12" for the Pocono plateau, just given the topography and microclimate we have up here, and the fact that at some point we'll be oh so close to the R/S line (have to smell the rain for higher totals), and that we probably will stay all snow.